- Crystal Palace is predicted to be a -0.5-goal favorite against West Ham.
- West Ham have only two wins in the last eight against Palace.
- My prediction for Saturday’s match comes on the three-way moneyline.
It’s another London Derby for Crystal Palace as they host West Ham United at Selhurst Park on Saturday.
Both sides lost their opening match of the season. Palace fell 2-1 at Brentford while West Ham fell 2-1 at home to Aston Villa.
Palace have historically dominated this series. They’re unbeaten in four against the Hammers and are 3-3-2 (W-D-L) in the last eight meetings.
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my prediction for Saturday’s match.
Crystal Palace vs. West Ham Odds, Premier League
- Crystal Palace Moneyline: +115
- West Ham Moneyline: +220
- Draw Moneyline: +260
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-145/+105)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-150), No (+105)
Crystal Palace vs. West Ham Prediction: Moneyline
My prediction for Saturday’s match is the West Ham United Moneyline (+210).
For now, it’s just a lean as I’m interested to see the market’s opinion of these teams.
Although West Ham’s results against Palace can’t be ignored, last year’s fixture timing must be noted.
Both games last season saw Palace play with a rest advantage. In the second meeting — a 5-2 Palace win — West Ham played on short rest with no Jarrod Bowen.
Since 2021, West Ham is 2-0-8 (W-D-L) in games Bowen either didn’t start or didn’t play.
Since 2020, there have been only six matches where Bowen didn’t play at all. West Ham’s record: 2-0-4 (W-D-L).
They’ll get a Palace team that is tricky to evaluate.
On the one hand, Palace had a goal wrongfully denied that would have given them a lead. However, it would have qualified as an unexpected goal.
The match likely plays out differently if they take a lead. However, Brentford dominated Palace for the rest of the match.
Expected goals finished 1.6 to 1.2 in the hosts’ favor with post-shot xG measuring 3.1 to 1 for Brentford, per fotmob.com.
That leads me to believe Palace could be slightly overrated in the market.
Plus, West Ham fit an underdog system match on the moneyline.
Since 2012, dogs shorter than +961 on the moneyline in August or November-January are 27.2% SU, assuming three factors:
- The team’s previous game margin is between -1 and +2
- The opponent’s previous game margin is between -3 and +3
- The previous head-to-head result is between -1 and +2
For those reasons, it’s West Ham or nothing for me.
Crystal Palace Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 18 at Brentford: 1-2, L
- Aug. 11 vs. Nantes: 1-1, D (Friendly)
- Aug. 3 vs. West Ham: 3-1, W (Friendly)
- July 31 vs. Wolves: 3-1, W (Friendly)
- July 27 at Crawley: 6-3, W (Friendly)
West Ham Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 17 vs. Aston Villa: 1-2, L
- Aug. 10 vs. Celta Vigo: 2-2, D (Friendly)
- Aug. 3 at Crystal Palace: 1-3, L (Friendly)
- July 27 vs. Wolves: 1-3, L (Friendly)
- July 20 at Dagenham & Redbridge: 1-0, W (Friendly)
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Crystal Palace odds and West Ham odds!
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Newcastle United | Manchester City | Sep. 28 | 7:30 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Arsenal | Leicester City | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | West Ham United | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Chelsea | Brighton & Hove Albion | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Crystal Palace | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Fulham | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Wolves | Liverpool | Sep. 28 | 12:30 p.m. | Molineux |
| Ipswich Town | Aston Villa | Sep. 29 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Tottenham | Sep. 29 | 11:30 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Bournemouth | Southampton | Sep. 30 | 3 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Manchester City | 4-1-0 | 13 | 8 |
| Liverpool | 4-0-1 | 12 | 9 |
| Aston Villa | 4-0-1 | 12 | 3 |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | 11 | 5 |
| Chelsea | 3-1-1 | 10 | 6 |
| Newcastle United | 3-1-1 | 10 | 1 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-3-0 | 9 | 4 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2-3-0 | 9 | 2 |
| Fulham | 2-2-1 | 8 | 2 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-1-2 | 7 | 4 |
| Manchester United | 2-1-2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brentford | 2-0-3 | 6 | -2 |
| Bournemouth | 1-2-2 | 5 | -3 |
| West Ham United | 1-1-3 | 4 | -4 |
| Leicester City | 0-3-2 | 3 | -2 |
| Crystal Palace | 0-3-2 | 3 | -3 |
| Ipswich Town | 0-3-2 | 3 | -5 |
| Southampton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -7 |
| Everton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Aston Villa | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Bournemouth | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Brentford | 3-2-0 | .600 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Chelsea | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Crystal Palace | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Everton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Fulham | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Leicester City | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Liverpool | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester City | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Newcastle United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Southampton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .500 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| West Ham United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
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