- Manchester United is a -0.5 goal favorite against Everton.
- Hosts Everton recently hit with a 10-point penalty for a financial breach.
- Everton enter Saturday’s fixture as a positive regression candidate.
Ahead of Sunday’s clash at Goodison Park, I’m here to provide a Everton vs. Manchester United prediction.
Everton are desperate for points, having received a 10-point deduction for financial fair play violations. The infringement drops them to four points and 19th in the table.
As for Manchester United, they sit on 21 points in sixth place. Most recently, they earned a home win against Luton Town.
Here’s how the Premier League odds shape up for Sunday’s fixture.
Everton vs. Manchester United Odds
- Everton to Win: +175
- Manchester United to Win: +145
- Everton vs. Manchester United Draw: +250
- The Everton vs. Manchester United Over/Under is 2.5 Goals
Everton vs. Manchester United Prediction
Based on recent trends, the prediction for Everton vs. Manchester United is Everton Draw, No Bet (-110).
My prediction is based on up-to-date player injuries for both teams, expected goal trends and recent player performances.
Don’t let the table placements influence your bet – these teams are much closer in quality.
In fact, there’s a case to be made that Everton are the better side.
Through their first 12 matches, the Toffees own a -3 goal differential against a +2.1 expected goal differential, per fbref.com.
Although the competition isn’t what you would call a murderer’s row, they’ve still played well at home against good competition.
They won the expected goals battle against Brighton in their last home fixture and limited Arsenal to only one expected goal in their visit.
Personally, I rate Manchester United behind both of those clubs.
The Red Devils own a -0.11 expected goal differential per 90 minutes, including a -0.18 xGDiff per 90 away from home.
Even if you shrink the sample down to their last three road matches – at Sheffield United, Burnley and Fulham – they still own only a -0.7 expected goal differential.
However, that comes against a +3 actual goal differential.
This is a United side 11th in non-penalty expected goals this season. Conversely, Everton ranks ninth.
In a game where goals are expected – over 2.5 is -135 – I’ll support the Toffees to do no worse than a draw at home.
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