- Newcastle United is a -0.5 goal favorite against Everton.
- Thursday’s visitors have won two straight and three of the last four.
- Everton earned a win at Nottingham Forest but remain in the relegation zone.
Before Thursday’s English Premier League match, I’m set to provide a Everton vs. Newcastle United prediction.
Both teams enter this match in good form. Newcastle produced a 1-0 home win against Manchester United on Saturday, while Everton traveled to Nottingham Forest and won by the same scoreline.
Those results leave Newcastle and Everton sixth and 18th, respectively, in the table. However, Everton’s standing comes as a result of their 10-point deduction.
Here’s how the Premier League odds shape up for Thursday’s encounter at Goodison Park.
Everton vs. Newcastle United Odds
- Everton to Win: +200
- Newcastle United to Win: +130
- Everton vs. Newcastle United Draw: +240
- The Everton vs. Newcastle United Over/Under is 2.5 Goals
Everton vs. Newcastle United Prediction
Based on recent trends, the prediction for Everton vs. Newcastle United is Over 2.5 Goals (-115).
My prediction is based on up-to-date player injuries for both teams, expected goal trends and recent player performances.
This game matches an insanely profitable betting system this season: overs in matches featuring home underdogs.
On 47 occasions this season where a match closes between 2.5 and three goals and features a home dog, the over is 29-18.
On four occasions where Newcastle United is the visiting team in that situation, the over is 3-1.
Plus, when these sides last met, they produced a barnburner of a fixture.
Newcastle United earned a 4-1 win at Goodison Park while creating 3.72 post-shot expected goals and three big scoring chances, per fotmob.com.
Given the Magpies created north of two expected goals in two straight games, bettors should expect a similar output on Thursday.
At the same time, don’t discount the quality of Everton’s attack, particularly at home.
In seven fixtures at Goodison Park, Everton has created 12.8 expected goals. In seven road matches, it’s only 8.2 expected goals, per fbref.com.
Just last week against Manchester United, the Toffees generated 2.4 expected goals despite failing to score.
Additionally, Newcastle have managed to keep only a single clean sheet away from home this year compared to five at home.
As a result, I’m confident the hosts will contribute at least one tally. Combine that with Newcastle’s offensive prowess, and bettors should back the over on Thursday.
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