- Chelsea is a -0.5 goal favorite against Everton.
- Everton captured a 3-0 home win against Newcastle United on Thursday.
- Chelsea received a 2-1 drubbing against Manchester United on Wednesday.
Before Sunday’s English Premier League match, I’m set to provide an Everton vs. Chelsea prediction.
These teams enter this match having experienced different results in the midweek.
Chelsea traveled to Old Trafford and lost 2-1 as road favorites. Meanwhile, Everton moved out of the relegation zone thanks to a 3-0 home win against Newcastle United.
Here’s how the Premier League odds shape up for Sunday’s encounter at Goodison Park and my best bet for the match.
Everton vs. Chelsea Odds
- Everton to Win: +220
- Chelsea to Win: +120
- Everton vs. Chelsea Draw: +240
- The Everton vs. Chelsea Over/Under is 2.5 Goals
Everton vs. Chelsea Prediction
Based on recent trends, the prediction for Everton vs. Chelsea is Over 2.5 Goals (-135).
My prediction is based on up-to-date player injuries for both teams, expected goal trends and recent player performances.
Goals featured prominently in both teams’ midweek fixtures, and it’s difficult to foresee a different scenario this weekend.
Everton thoroughly dominated the Newcastle United defense, which I power rate ahead of Chelsea’s unit.
The Toffees took 21 shots, produced three big scoring chances and 3.23 expected goals, per fotmob.com.
Slightly worrisome is that only six shots found the target – their post-shot xG tally was 1.77 – yet I remain encouraged by their offensive prowess.
It also marks the second consecutive home match in which Everton created at least two expected goals.
That said, Everton came up a bit lucky on the defensive end. Despite keeping a clean sheet, they allowed Newcastle to create 1.58 expected goals.
Chelsea’s defense looked bad against Manchester United – they surrendered 3.38 non-penalty expected goals – but their offense flowed nicely.
Against an admittedly weak United defense, Chelsea created 1.52 expected goals.
Although Everton sit fifth in expected goals against, they’ve struggled against good teams.
When Manchester United paid a visit to Goodison Park, they created 2.2 expected goals.
Back on November 11, Everton surrendered 2.2 expected goals to Crystal Palace, a side miles behind Chelsea in offensive quality.
Plus, the last time these sides met, they combined to create three non-penalty expected goals.
Add in overs are 31-19 this season when the home team is the underdog, and I’ll back another high-scoring game.
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