- Arsenal is a -0.5-goal favorite against Fulham.
- Arsenal own strong metrics against Fulham but drew in previous head-to-head.
- Fulham have previously struggled as a home underdog.
Before Sunday’s English Premier League match, I’m set to provide a Fulham vs. Arsenal prediction.
Fulham’s midweek proved disappointing as they traveled to Bournemouth and were subsequently trounced 3-0.
As for Arsenal, bettors still await their midweek results. The league leaders host West Ham United on Thursday in North London following a 1-1 draw at Anfield.
Here’s how the Premier League odds shape up for Sunday’s encounter at Craven Cottage, along with my best bet for the match.
Fulham vs. Arsenal Betting Odds
- Fulham to Win: +450
- Arsenal to Win: -175
- Fulham vs. Arsenal Draw: +310
- The Fulham vs. Arsenal Over/Under is 2.5 Goals
Fulham vs. Arsenal Prediction
Based on recent trends, the prediction for Fulham vs. Arsenal is a Same Game Parlay: Arsenal Moneyline and Under 3.5 Goals (+125).
My prediction is based on up-to-date player injuries for both teams, expected goal trends and recent player performances.
Fulham: outstanding against bad teams, terrible against the top tier, even at home.
Dating back to the beginning of last season, manager Marco Silva’s side is only 5-8 ATS as home underdogs, including 4-9 straight up.
They’ve also struggled immensely against Arsenal specifically.
Across the last three head-to-head meetings between these sides, Arsenal owns a +1.39 non-penalty post-shot expected goal differential per 90 minutes, per fotmob.com.
That said, the Fulham defense has held up well at home as dogs. Of those aforementioned 13 games, all but two have finished under 3.5 goals.
They’re also surrendering only 1.22 expected goals per 90 minutes at home, including 1.7 against Chelsea, their hardest opponent to date.
Arsenal’s goal-scoring record is a tad inflated, given their penalty luck. Manager Mikel Arteta’s side is fifth in expected goals this season but 10th in non-penalty expected goals per 90.
Just away from home, Arsenal has managed only 1.3 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes.
Even in their easiest road match of the season – Luton Town – they generated only 2.2 expected goals.
At the same time, their defense is top-notch.
Arsenal leads the Premier League in non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes allowed (0.72) and held Fulham to 0.43 post-shot expected goals in their first meeting.
As a result, back this same game parlay so long as it remains available at +110 or better.
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