- Fulham is predicted to be a -0.5-goal favorite against Leicester City.
- Fulham has won three of the previous four against Leicester City.
- My prediction for Saturday’s match comes from the prop markets.
For their first home match of the season, Fulham welcome Premier League newcomer Leicester City to Craven Cottage.
Manager Marco Silva’s side fought valiantly at Old Trafford last Friday, but the Cottagers fell 1-0. As for Leicester, they earned a point as home dogs to Tottenham in a 1-1 draw.
Fulham have produced strong results against the Foxes recently. Saturday’s hosts have won two straight and three of the last four against Leicester.
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my prediction for Saturday’s match.
Fulham vs. Leicester City Odds, Premier League
- Fulham Moneyline: -125
- Leicester City Moneyline: +333
- Draw Moneyline: +275
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-135/-105)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-140), No (+100)
Fulham vs. Leicester City Prediction: Prop Bet
My prediction for Saturday’s match is Both Teams to Score: No Draw (+145).
Initially, I wanted to grab Fulham as short home favorites given they match two historically profitable systems.
First, home favorites with extended rest tend to perform well. Teams priced between -250 and -110 are 58-16 SU since 2012, assuming two factors:
- The previous head-to-head result was between +0 and +2
- The team has had between 8 and 9 days off
Even when those favorites fall between -150 and -110, they’re 30-10 SU.
Additionally, since the 2012-13 season, home favorites between -250 and -103 in games 2-10 are 47-11 SU, assuming three factors:
- The previous head-to-head result was between +0 and +4
- The opponent’s previous game margin is between -8 and +0
- In the previous game the opponent was the underdog
When those teams fall between -150 and -103, they’re still 26-8 SU at home.
The problem? Leicester City fits the profile of an underdog pick this week, so I want to allow for the possibility of either team winning.
That led me to this prop market, which has cashed in five straight meetings between these clubs.
Fulham is a relatively trustworthy half of both teams to score. Over the last two years, they’ve scored at home in 16 of 20 matches where they closed a home favorite.
Essentially, that puts the onus on Leicester to score.
Put simply, Fulham’s defense isn’t trustworthy without Tosin Adarabioyo.
Dating back to last season, Silva’s side has played 19 matches without the central defender. They managed a clean sheet only four times.
Pair that with the historical spread trends, and I’m a huge fan of this price.
Fulham Record, Last 4 Matches
- Aug. 16 at Manchester United: 1-1, D
- August 10 vs. Hoffenheim: 2-0, W (Friendly)
- Aug. 5 vs. Sevilla: 1-2, L (Friendly)
- Aug. 2 at Benfica: 1-0, W (Friendly)
Leicester City Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 19 vs. Tottenham: 1-1, D
- Aug. 10 at Lens: 0-3, L (Friendly)
- Aug. 3 at Augsburg: 0-1, L (Friendly)
- July 26 vs. Palermo: 0-1, L (Friendly)
- July 23 vs. Shrewsbury: 2-1, W (Friendly)
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Fulham odds and Leicester City odds!
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Newcastle United | Manchester City | Sep. 28 | 7:30 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Arsenal | Leicester City | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | West Ham United | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Chelsea | Brighton & Hove Albion | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Crystal Palace | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Fulham | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Wolves | Liverpool | Sep. 28 | 12:30 p.m. | Molineux |
| Ipswich Town | Aston Villa | Sep. 29 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Tottenham | Sep. 29 | 11:30 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Bournemouth | Southampton | Sep. 30 | 3 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Manchester City | 4-1-0 | 13 | 8 |
| Liverpool | 4-0-1 | 12 | 9 |
| Aston Villa | 4-0-1 | 12 | 3 |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | 11 | 5 |
| Chelsea | 3-1-1 | 10 | 6 |
| Newcastle United | 3-1-1 | 10 | 1 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-3-0 | 9 | 4 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2-3-0 | 9 | 2 |
| Fulham | 2-2-1 | 8 | 2 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-1-2 | 7 | 4 |
| Manchester United | 2-1-2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brentford | 2-0-3 | 6 | -2 |
| Bournemouth | 1-2-2 | 5 | -3 |
| West Ham United | 1-1-3 | 4 | -4 |
| Leicester City | 0-3-2 | 3 | -2 |
| Crystal Palace | 0-3-2 | 3 | -3 |
| Ipswich Town | 0-3-2 | 3 | -5 |
| Southampton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -7 |
| Everton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Aston Villa | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Bournemouth | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Brentford | 3-2-0 | .600 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Chelsea | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Crystal Palace | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Everton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Fulham | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Leicester City | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Liverpool | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester City | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Newcastle United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Southampton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .500 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| West Ham United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
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