- Fulham is predicted to be a -0.5-goal favorite against West Ham.
- Fulham finished 2-0 SU against West Ham United in 2023-24.
- I predict the hosts will do no worse than a point on Saturday.
Returning from the international break, Fulham host West Ham United in a London Derby at Craven Cottage.
Marco Silva will look for his third straight win against the Hammers on Saturday. Last year, Fulham captured a 5-0 home win in the fall before pounding West Ham 2-0 in the spring.
The Hammers have started this campaign slowly. A Matchday 2 trip to Crystal Palace remains their only victory, with losses to Aston Villa and Manchester City sandwiched on either side.
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my Fulham vs. West Ham prediction.
Fulham vs. West Ham Odds, Premier League
- Fulham Moneyline: +140
- West Ham Moneyline: +175
- Draw Moneyline: +250
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-150/+110)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-175), No (+125)
Fulham vs. West Ham Prediction: Game Spread
My prediction for Fulham vs. West Ham is Fulham Draw, No Bet (-140) based on their strong record against West Ham.
It cannot be overstated how dominant Fulham were in the two matches last season.
They won 5-0 at Craven Cottage with a 4.02-1.32 win on post-shot expected goals, per fotmob.com.
At the London Stadium, Fulham captured a 2-0 win. However, post-shot expected goals finished 3.88-0.24 in favor of the visitors.
Although West Ham played both of those matches on short rest — Fulham was also on short rest for the first meeting — Marco Silva is outstanding with extra time to prepare.
Since rejoining the English top flight in 2022, Silva is 6-2-0 (W-D-L) as a favorite with eight or more days between games.
Since 2018, Fulham is 8-3 SU as favorites against the three-way moneyline with eight or more days to prepare and 9-1-2 (W-D-L) against draw, no bet.
Fulham also matches a historically profitable system that suggests they’ll win outright.
Since 2012, half-goal home favorites off a draw or one-goal win on the road are 58-26 SU in September, April or May.
Those teams also did no worse than a point in 70 of those 84 games.
When those teams are facing a team that lost their last game, they improve to 22-7 SU (76%) and have dropped all three points only one time.
Finally, some betting calculus.
Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals are both heavily juiced in this fixture. However, both team totals are juiced to under 1.5 goals.
When that happens, I love backing the favorite, particularly at home.
In addition, Fulham have earned points in 64% of home matches since 2022, so I’ll back the hosts on Saturday.
Fulham Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 31 at Ipswich Town: 1-1, D
- Aug. 27 at Birmingham: 2-0, W (EFL Cup)
- Aug. 24 vs. Leicester City: 2-1, W
- Aug. 16 at Manchester United: 0-1, L
- Aug. 10 at Hoffenheim: 2-0, W (Friendly)
West Ham Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 31 vs. Manchester City: 1-3, L
- Aug. 28 vs. Bournemouth: 1-0, W (EFL Cup)
- Aug. 24 at Crystal Palace: 2-0, W
- Aug. 17 vs. Aston Villa: 1-2, L
- Aug. 10 vs. Celta Vigo: 2-2, D (Friendly)
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Fulham odds and West Ham United odds!
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Nottingham Forest | Chelsea | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Southampton | Arsenal | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Liverpool | Crystal Palace | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Anfield |
| Ipswich Town | West Ham | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Bournemouth | Leicester City | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Man United | Aston Villa | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Newcastle | Everton | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Tottenham | Brighton | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Wolves | Brentford | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Molineux |
| Fulham | Manchester City | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-8-4 | 83 | 45 |
| Arsenal | 19-14-4 | 71 | 34 |
| Manchester City | 20-8-9 | 68 | 26 |
| Newcastle United | 20-6-11 | 66 | 22 |
| Chelsea | 19-9-9 | 66 | 20 |
| Aston Villa | 19-9-9 | 66 | 9 |
| Nottingham Forest | 19-8-10 | 65 | 13 |
| Brighton | 15-14-8 | 58 | 4 |
| Brentford | 16-7-14 | 55 | 9 |
| Fulham | 15-9-13 | 54 | 2 |
| Bournemouth | 14-11-12 | 53 | 9 |
| Crystal Palace | 13-13-11 | 52 | 0 |
| Everton | 10-15-12 | 45 | -3 |
| Wolves | 12-5-20 | 41 | -15 |
| West Ham | 10-10-17 | 40 | -18 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-18 | 39 | -12 |
| Tottenham | 11-5-21 | 38 | 2 |
| Leicester City | 6-7-24 | 25 | -45 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-10-23 | 22 | -44 |
| Southampton | 2-6-29 | 12 | -59 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 14-17-6 | 45.9% | 5-10-4 | 36.8% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Aston Villa | 18-18-1 | 50.0% | 9-9-1 | 50.0% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 19-16-2 | 54.1% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 11-6-2 | 63.2% |
| Brentford | 22-12-3 | 63.5% | 11-8-0 | 57.9% | 11-4-3 | 69.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 21-15-1 | 58.1% | 10-9-0 | 52.6% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
| Chelsea | 13-20-4 | 40.5% | 7-9-3 | 44.7% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% |
| Crystal Palace | 20-13-4 | 59.5% | 8-7-4 | 52.6% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Everton | 19-12-6 | 59.5% | 9-8-2 | 52.6% | 10-4-4 | 66.7% |
| Fulham | 18-14-4 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 10-5-4 | 63.2% |
| Ipswich Town | 14-20-3 | 41.9% | 4-13-1 | 25.0% | 10-7-2 | 57.9% |
| Leicester City | 18-18-1 | 50.0% | 8-11-0 | 42.1% | 10-7-1 | 58.3% |
| Liverpool | 16-19-2 | 45.9% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 9-10-0 | 47.4% |
| Manchester City | 13-24-0 | 35.1% | 7-12-0 | 36.8% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-18-5 | 44.6% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 7-9-3 | 44.7% |
| Newcastle United | 21-15-1 | 58.1% | 13-5-0 | 72.2% | 8-10-1 | 44.7% |
| Nottingham Forest | 23-14-0 | 62.2% | 10-8-0 | 55.6% | 13-6-0 | 68.4% |
| Southampton | 13-20-4 | 40.5% | 4-12-2 | 27.8% | 9-8-2 | 52.6% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 13-23-1 | 36.5% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 7-12-0 | 36.8% |
| West Ham United | 18-17-2 | 51.4% | 6-12-1 | 34.2% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 19-15-3 | 55.4% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 11-7-1 | 60.5% |
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