Ipswich Town vs. Aston Villa Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

Following their comeback win against Wolves, Aston Villa travel to face Ipswich Town for their fifth league match of the season. 

Villa’s win marked their fourth straight in all competitions and third straight league win after a Matchday 2 defeat against Arsenal. 

Ipswich Town, meanwhile, picked up a point as road dogs to Southampton on Matchday 4. That leaves the Tractor Boys on three points, just above the drop zone. 

Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my Ipswich Town vs. Aston Villa prediction. 

Ipswich Town vs. Aston Villa Odds, Premier League

• Ipswich Town Moneyline: +290
• Aston Villa Moneyline: -110
• Draw Moneyline: +260
• Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-135/+100)
• Both Teams to Score: Yes (-150), No (+105)

Ipswich Town vs. Aston Villa Prediction: Moneyline & Total Goals

I’m making two predictions for Ipswich Town vs. Aston Villa: the Aston Villa Moneyline (-110) and the Total Over 2.5 Goals (-135). 

Let’s begin with the former. 

Villa are 28-12 SU as a market favorite under Unai Emery, including 3-0 SU this season. 

The closest comparison to Ipswich Town is Leicester City, where Villa closed a -135 market favorite. Under no uncertain terms is Ipswich Town 25 cents better than Leicester. 

Villa won that match 2-1 with a +1.94 post-shot expected goal differential. 

That makes this a great sell-high spot on Ipswich, which has proved the inferior side in three straight matches. 

Kieran McKenna’s side has a +0 goal differential in their last three compared to a -2.6 expected goal differential. 

Over the weekend, they surrendered 2.5 xG to Southampton on only 11 shots. 

While psxG favored Ipswich 3.05-1.25 in that match, Villa are a markedly better team that will take advantage of high-quality chances. 

Take Villa to earn all three points, 

As for the total, this game matches a historically profitable system. 

Since 2012, closing totals at 2.5 featuring a home underdog are 65% to the over, assuming two factors:

• The away team’s average number of goals is between 1.3 and 3
• The away team’s previous match cleared the total by at least 1.5 goals 

Specific to Aston Villa, they’ve proved to be an over machine as favorites.

In Villa’s last 29 matches as a favorite, 24 have cleared 2.5 goals. Under Emery, Villa are 31-10 to over 2.5 goals as a market favorite. 

As a result, take the over on Sunday. 

Ipswich Town Record, Last 5 Matches

• Sept. 21 at Southampton: 1-1, D
• Sept. 14 at Brighton & Hove Albion: 0-0, D
• Aug. 31 vs. Fulham: 1-1, D
• Aug. 28 at Wimbledon: 2-2, D (EFL Cup, Ipswich Town Advance)
• Aug. 24 at Manchester City: 1-4, L

Aston Villa Record, Last 5 Matches

• Sept. 21 vs. Wolves: 3-1, W
• Sept. 17 at Young Boys: 3-0, W (Champions League)
• Sept. 14 vs. Everton: 3-2, W
• Aug. 31 at Leicester City: 2-1, W
• Aug. 24 vs. Arsenal: 0-2, L

Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Ipswich Town odds and Aston Villa odds!