- Ipswich Town is predicted to be a +0.5-goal underdog against Fulham.
- In a League Cup meeting last year, Fulham captured a 3-1 win over Ipswich.
- My prediction for Saturday’s match is a Same Game Parlay.
Seeking their second straight win against a newly-promoted side, Fulham travel to face Ipswich Town.
The Cottagers avenged their Matchday 1 defeat on Saturday with a 2-1 win over Leicester City. Ipswich, meanwhile, took a 1-0 lead at Man City but conceded four unanswered to lose 4-1.
This match marks the second meeting between these sides in the last calendar year. Last November, Fulham won 3-1 at Portman Road in a Cup tie.
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my prediction for Saturday’s match.
Ipswich Town vs. Fulham Odds, Premier League
- Ipswich Town Moneyline: +195
- Fulham Moneyline: +130
- Draw Moneyline: +250
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-145/+105)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-165), No (+120)
Ipswich Town vs. Fulham Prediction: Same Game Parlay
My prediction for Saturday’s match is a Same Game Parlay: Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals (-110).
Ipswich finally receive a reprieve in the schedule.
The Tractor Boys opened against Liverpool and City. Across both matches, Kieran McKenna’s side created only 0.8 expected goals.
Now they get a Fulham side that surrendered 1.72 psxG to Leicester City in their last match. Plus, Fulham will play this match on short rest after a midweek road game.
That should allow Ipswich to find the net at least once. In their last match against Fulham — with a worse attack — they managed 0.65 xG, per fotmob.com.
The problem? They simultaneously allowed 1.7 expected goals to Fulham, who have succeeded offensively against recently promoted teams.
In their last seven matches against promoted teams, manager Marco Silva’s side has created 1.46 xG per 90 minutes, per fbref.com.
Of those seven matches, five cashed this same game parlay.
This game also matches a historically profitable betting system.
Games featuring a home underdog with a total of 2.5 goals are 61.5% to the over since 2012, assuming two factors:
- The visitor’s previous O/U margin is between +0 and +7
- The visitor’s previous game margin is between +0 and +4
Just over the last two seasons, it’s 46-25 to the over (64.8%).
As a result, expect goals to flow on Saturday at Portman Road.
Ipswich Town Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 24 at Man City: 1-4, L
- Aug. 17 vs. Liverpool: 0-2, L
- Aug. 10 vs. OGC Nice: 1-0, W (Friendly)
- Aug. 3 at Hoffenheim: 1-0, W (Friendly)
- July 27 vs. Dusseldorf: 1-2, L (Friendly)
Fulham Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 24 vs. Leicester City: 2-1, W
- Aug. 16 vs. Manchester United: 0-1, L
- Aug. 10 at Hoffenheim: 2-0, W (Friendly)
- Aug. 5 vs. Sevilla: 1-2, L (Friendly)
- Aug. 2 at Benfica: 1-0, W (Friendly)
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Ipswich Town odds and Fulham odds!
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Brentford | Brighton | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Bournemouth | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Everton | Manchester City | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| West Ham United | Southampton | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Aston Villa | Newcastle United | Apr. 19 | 12:30 p.m. | Villa Park |
| Fulham | Chelsea | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Ipswich Town | Arsenal | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Wolves | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Leicester City | Liverpool | Apr. 20 | 11:30 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Tottenham | Nottingham Forest | Apr. 21 | 3 p.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Manchester City | Aston Villa | Apr. 22 | 3 p.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Arsenal | Crystal Palace | Apr. 23 | 3 p.m. | Emirates Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 23-7-2 | 76 | 43 |
| Arsenal | 17-12-3 | 63 | 30 |
| Newcastle United | 18-5-9 | 59 | 21 |
| Nottingham Forest | 17-6-9 | 57 | 13 |
| Manchester City | 16-7-9 | 55 | 20 |
| Chelsea | 15-9-8 | 54 | 17 |
| Aston Villa | 15-9-8 | 54 | 3 |
| Bournemouth | 13-9-10 | 48 | 12 |
| Fulham | 13-9-10 | 48 | 4 |
| Brighton | 12-13-7 | 48 | 2 |
| Brentford | 12-7-13 | 43 | 4 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-10-11 | 43 | -4 |
| Everton | 8-14-10 | 38 | -4 |
| Manchester United | 10-8-14 | 38 | -7 |
| Tottenham | 11-4-17 | 37 | 11 |
| Wolves | 10-5-17 | 35 | -14 |
| West Ham | 9-8-15 | 35 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-9-19 | 21 | -34 |
| Leicester City | 4-6-22 | 18 | -45 |
| Southampton | 2-4-26 | 10 | -54 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 11-15-6 | 43.8% | 4-8-4 | 37.5% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% |
| Aston Villa | 14-17-1 | 45.3% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 18-13-1 | 57.8% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 10-5-1 | 65.6% |
| Brentford | 19-11-2 | 62.5% | 9-7-0 | 56.3% | 10-4-2 | 68.8% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-14-1 | 54.7% | 7-9-0 | 43.8% | 10-5-1 | 65.6% |
| Chelsea | 11-19-2 | 37.5% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 5-10-1 | 34.4% |
| Crystal Palace | 17-12-3 | 57.8% | 7-6-3 | 53.1% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% |
| Everton | 17-10-5 | 60.9% | 8-6-2 | 56.3% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Fulham | 18-11-3 | 60.9% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Ipswich Town | 13-17-2 | 43.8% | 4-12-0 | 25.0% | 9-5-2 | 62.5% |
| Leicester City | 14-17-1 | 45.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
| Liverpool | 15-15-2 | 50.0% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% | 9-7-0 | 56.3% |
| Manchester City | 10-22-0 | 31.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% |
| Manchester United | 13-15-4 | 46.9% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% |
| Newcastle United | 19-12-1 | 60.9% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% | 8-7-1 | 53.1% |
| Nottingham Forest | 20-12-0 | 62.5% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% |
| Southampton | 11-18-3 | 39.1% | 3-12-1 | 21.9% | 8-6-2 | 56.3% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 12-19-1 | 39.1% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 6-10-0 | 37.5% |
| West Ham United | 17-14-1 | 54.7% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 16-13-3 | 54.7% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
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