- Leicester City is predicted to be a -0.5-goal favorite against Everton.
- Everton has won only one of the last five meetings with Leicester City.
- I predict Saturday’s match will clear the pregame total of 2.5 goals.
It’s an early relegation six-pointer as Everton travel to face Leicester City on Saturday.
Everton have struggled recently. Despite taking a 2-0 lead in consecutive matches, they’ve lost both 3-2 to sit at 0-0-4 (W-D-L) on the season.
As for Leicester City, they picked up a road draw against Crystal Palace last weekend, their second result of the season.
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my Leicester City vs. Everton prediction.
Leicester City vs. Everton Odds, Premier League
- Leicester City Moneyline: +145
- Everton Moneyline: +175
- Draw Moneyline: +240
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-125/-110)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-150), No (+105)
Leicester City vs. Everton Prediction: Total Goals
My prediction for Leicester City vs. Everton is the Total Over 2.5 Goals (-125).
This total is far too low, especially in a fixture that has historically produced goals.
The match finished 2-2 the last time these clubs met. However, they combined to generate 6.55 expected goals and 4.98 non-penalty expected goals, per fotmob.com.
Right now, I don’t trust the Everton defense without Jarrad Branthewaite.
Only Ipswich Town has surrendered more expected goals than Everton through four matches…and they’ve played both Man City and Liverpool!
Granted, Everton have played Brighton, Tottenham, Bournemouth and Aston Villa, but I’ll pay to see their defensive record reverse course.
The good news for Everton? This marks their easiest opponent in terms of defensive record thus far.
Plus, Everton ranks fourth in expected goals from set-piece situations while Leicester is 19th in the corresponding defensive category, per Opta.
At the same time, Leicester have cleared at least one post-shot xG in three of four matches this season.
They’ve also scored in five straight meetings against Everton, who have kept only three deserved road clean sheets since last season.
This game also matches a historically profitable system.
Since 2012, totals set at 2.5 are 62% to the over, assuming three factors:
- The home team’s previous game margin is between -3 and +5
- The visiting team’s previous game margin is between -1 and +4
- The visitor’s previous game cleared the pregame total by at least 1.5 goals
As a result, take the over in Saturday’s contest until Everton show they’re capable of defending.
Leicester City Record, Last 5 Matches
- Sept. 14 at Crystal Palace: 2-2, D
- Aug. 31 vs. Aston Villa: 1-2, L
- Aug. 27 vs. Tranmere: 4-0, W (EFL Cup)
- Aug. 24 at Fulham: 1-2, L
- Aug. 19 vs. Tottenham: 1-1, D
Everton Record, Last 5 Matches
- Sept. 17 vs. Southampton: 1-1, D (EFL Cup, Southampton Advance)
- Sept. 14 at Aston Villa: 2-3, L
- Aug. 31 vs. Bournemouth: 2-3, L
- Aug. 27 vs. Doncaster: 3-0, W (EFL Cup)
- Aug. 24 at Tottenham: 0-4, L
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Leicester City odds and Everton odds!
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Newcastle United | Manchester City | Sep. 28 | 7:30 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Arsenal | Leicester City | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | West Ham United | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Chelsea | Brighton & Hove Albion | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Crystal Palace | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Fulham | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Wolves | Liverpool | Sep. 28 | 12:30 p.m. | Molineux |
| Ipswich Town | Aston Villa | Sep. 29 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Tottenham | Sep. 29 | 11:30 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Bournemouth | Southampton | Sep. 30 | 3 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Manchester City | 4-1-0 | 13 | 8 |
| Liverpool | 4-0-1 | 12 | 9 |
| Aston Villa | 4-0-1 | 12 | 3 |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | 11 | 5 |
| Chelsea | 3-1-1 | 10 | 6 |
| Newcastle United | 3-1-1 | 10 | 1 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-3-0 | 9 | 4 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2-3-0 | 9 | 2 |
| Fulham | 2-2-1 | 8 | 2 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-1-2 | 7 | 4 |
| Manchester United | 2-1-2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brentford | 2-0-3 | 6 | -2 |
| Bournemouth | 1-2-2 | 5 | -3 |
| West Ham United | 1-1-3 | 4 | -4 |
| Leicester City | 0-3-2 | 3 | -2 |
| Crystal Palace | 0-3-2 | 3 | -3 |
| Ipswich Town | 0-3-2 | 3 | -5 |
| Southampton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -7 |
| Everton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Aston Villa | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Bournemouth | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Brentford | 3-2-0 | .600 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Chelsea | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Crystal Palace | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Everton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Fulham | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Leicester City | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Liverpool | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester City | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Newcastle United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Southampton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .500 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| West Ham United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
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