Liverpool vs. Brentford Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

Brentford's Bryan Mbeumo runs into position during the English Premier League soccer match between Brentford and Crystal Palace, at the Gtech Community Stadium in London, Sunday, Aug. 18, 2024.
(AP Photo/Dave Shopland)
  • Liverpool is predicted to be a -1.5-goal favorite against Brentford.
  • Liverpool have won four of the last five against Brentford.
  • I predict Brentford are live to pull the upset at Anfield on Sunday.

Seeking their fourth straight win over Brentford, Liverpool welcome the Bees to Anfield on Sunday.ย 

Both teams enter Sundayโ€™s match off wins. Liverpool used a strong second half to beat Ipswich Town 2-0, while Brentford captured a 2-1 home win over Crystal Palace.ย 

Last year, Liverpool finished 2-0 SU against Brentford with a 7-1 head-to-head margin.ย 

Hereโ€™s a look at the Premier League odds and my prediction for Sundayโ€™s fixture.ย 

Liverpool vs. Brentford Odds, Premier League

  • Liverpool Moneyline: -400
  • Brentford Moneyline: +900
  • Draw Moneyline: +575
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-120/-115)
  • Both Teams to Score: Yes (-160), No (+110)

Liverpool vs. Brentford Prediction: Moneyline

My prediction for Sundayโ€™s match at Anfield is the Brentford Moneyline (+950).ย 

I wonโ€™t sugarcoat it: Brentfordโ€™s underlying metrics vs. Liverpool last season were awful.ย 

Across both meetings, the Bees posted a -0.58 xGDiff per 90 minutes and a -1.92 post-shot xGDiff per 90 minutes.ย 

But Brentford matches the historical profile of a team that can win outright.ย 

Since the 2012-13 season, dogs priced between +210 and +961 in August or November-January are 27% SU for 37.3% return on investment, assuming three factors:

  • The previous head-to-head result was between -9 and -1
  • The teamโ€™s previous game margin is between -1 and +2
  • The opponentโ€™s previous game margin is between -3 and +3

Plus, thereโ€™s a hint from Liverpoolโ€™s opening match about how Brentford can win this match.ย 

Liverpool played awful in the first half at Ipswich. Manager Arne Slotโ€™s side took only three shots and created 0.1 expected goals.ย 

That might fly against a newly promoted team, but Iโ€™m not sure it will work against Brentford.ย 

If Brentford comes out strong and takes an early lead, it puts them in prime position to play to their strengths.ย 

For all of their issues last year, Brentford played very well with a lead.ย 

They held a lead for limited minutes last season โ€” 679 minutes, or 7.5 90โ€™s โ€” but their underlying metrics are encouraging.ย 

In those minutes, Brentford posted a +0.67 xGDiff per 90 minutes.ย 

The bet is essentially dead if Liverpool takes the lead โ€” theyโ€™ve dropped all three points only one time over the last three years with a lead.ย 

However, given their slow start at Ipswich, Iโ€™m willing to take a flier on Brentford at an inflated number.ย 

Liverpool Record, Last 5 Matches

  • Aug. 17 at Ipswich Town: 2-0, W
  • Aug. 11 vs. Las Palmas: 0-0, D (Friendly)
  • Aug. 11 vs. Sevilla: 4-1, W (Friendly)
  • Aug. 3 vs. Manchester United: 3-0, W (Friendly)
  • July 31 vs. Arsenal: 2-1, W (Friendly)

Brentford Record, Last 5 Matches

  • Aug. 18 vs. Crystal Palace: 2-1, W
  • Aug. 9 vs. Wolfsburg: 4-4, D (Friendly)
  • Aug. 3 at Watford: 1-1, D (Friendly)
  • July 25 at Benfica: 1-1, D (Friendly)
  • July 20 at Wimbledon: 5-2, W (Friendly)

Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Liverpool odds and Brentford odds!ย 

EPL Match Schedule This Weekend

First Bet Offer $1,500 FBO
HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
EvertonWest Ham UnitedMar. 1511 a.m.Goodison Park
Ipswich TownNottingham ForestMar. 1511 a.m.The City Ground
Manchester CityBrightonMar. 1511 a.m.Etihad Stadium
SouthamptonWolvesMar. 1511 a.m.St. Mary's Stadium
BournemouthBrentfordMar. 151:30 p.m.Vitality Stadium
ArsenalChelseaMar. 169:30 a.m.Emirates Stadium
FulhamTottenhamMar. 169:30 a.m.Craven Cottage
Leicester CityManchester UnitedMar. 163 p.m.King Power Stadium

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal Differential
Liverpool21-7-17042
Arsenal15-10-35528
Nottingham Forest15-6-75112
Chelsea14-7-74917
Manchester City14-5-94715
Newcastle United14-5-9479
Brighton12-10-6466
Aston Villa12-9-845-4
Bournemouth12-8-84413
Fulham11-9-8423
Crystal Palace10-9-9393
Brentford11-5-12384
Tottenham10-4-143414
Manchester United9-7-1234-6
Everton7-12-933-4
West Ham9-6-1333-16
Wolves6-5-1723-19
Ipswich Town3-8-1717-32
Leicester City4-5-1917-37
Southampton2-3-239-48

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS%Home ATS RecordHome ATS%Road ATS RecordRoad ATS%
Arsenal10-13-544.6%3-7-334.6%7-6-253.3%
Aston Villa11-17-140.0%5-9-136.7%6-8-042.9%
Bournemouth17-10-162.5%7-6-053.8%10-4-170.0%
Brentford16-10-260.7%8-7-053.3%8-3-269.2%
Brighton & Hove Albion16-11-158.9%7-7-059.0%9-4-167.9%
Chelsea10-16-239.3%5-8-139.3%5-8-139.3%
Crystal Palace16-9-362.5%6-6-350.0%10-3-076.9%
Everton15-9-460.7%7-5-257.1%8-4-264.3%
Fulham16-10-260.7%6-8-042.9%9-3-271.4%
Ipswich Town11-15-242.9%4-10-028.6%7-5-257.1%
Leicester City12-15-144.6%5-9-035.7%7-6-153.6%
Liverpool15-13-153.4%6-7-146.4%9-6-060.0%
Manchester City9-19-032.1%4-9-030.8%5-10-033.3%
Manchester United11-13-446.4%6-7-246.7%5-6-246.2%
Newcastle United15-12-155.4%8-5-061.5%7-7-150.0%
Nottingham Forest18-10-064.3%9-5-064.3%9-5-064.3%
Southampton10-15-341.1%2-10-119.2%8-5-260.0%
Tottenham Hotspur11-16-141.1%5-9-136.7%6-7-046.2%
West Ham United14-13-151.8%5-9-136.7%9-4-069.2%
Wolverhampton Wanderers12-13-348.2%5-7-242.9%7-6-153.6%

EPL Betting at BetMGM

BetMGM is the premier online sportsbook for EPL betting throughout the year.

With EPL futures and weekly odds, including match winner odds, over/under totals, and player props, there are a variety of opportunities to bet online!

If you don’t have an account, register today with BetMGM’s welcome offer. Once you have an account, check for daily sports betting promos.

About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.