- Liverpool is a -2.5-goal favorite against Burnley.
- Liverpool dominated Burnley in the last head-to-head meeting.
- Burnley have struggled to keep it close early on the road.
Ahead of Saturday’s match at Anfield, I’m here to provide a Liverpool vs. Burnley prediction.
Hosts Liverpool enter this game off a rare loss — a 3-1 defeat at Arsenal in a match that saw Ibrahima Konate sent off. He’ll miss Saturday’s match as a result.
As for Burnley, they fell behind early against Fulham 2-0 at home but salvaged a late draw thanks to a strong second half.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds for Saturday’s match and my best bet.
EPL Betting Odds – Liverpool vs. Burnley
- Liverpool Moneyline: -600
- Burnley Moneyline: +1400
- Draw Moneyline: +700
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-130/-110)
EPL Prediction – Liverpool vs. Burnley
First Half: Liverpool to Win & Burnley Not to Score (-135)
Full disclosure: my main preference is Liverpool’s first half spread (-1), but this market offers decent viability as well.
The last time these sides met at Turf Moor, Liverpool completely dominated the opening half.
The Reds generated 1.84 non-penalty post shot expected goals at Turf Moor while limiting Burnley to zero shots on target in the first half.
Through their first 12 road EPL fixtures, that remains their best output in the first half.
Sample Liverpool’s three matches this season against teams 18th or worse in expected goal differential, and bettors will find they have a +1.35 non-penalty post shot expected goal differential per 90 minutes in the first half.
Even more encouraging – all three of those games came away from home.
Now Liverpool gets a shot at home, where they have a +1.9 nppsxGdiff/90 minutes in their last two home fixtures.
In those games, they’ve allowed only one shot on target in those two halves combined.
On the flip side, Burnley’s last match came against Manchester City. In that match, they posted a -1.55 non-penalty post shot expected goal differential, per fotmob.com.
Even at home against Fulham, Burnley created only 0.04 non-penalty post shot xG in the first half.
Given they failed to put a shot on target in the first half against Man City, expect a slow start for manager Vincent Kompany’s side.
Liverpool Form
Feb. 4 at Arsenal: 1-3, L
Jan. 31 vs. Chelsea, 4-1, W
Jan. 21 at Bournemouth: 4-0, W
Jan. 1 vs. Newcastle: 4-2, W
Dec. 26 at Burnley: 2-0, W
Burnley Form
Feb. 3 vs. Fulham: 2-2, D
Jan. 31 at Man City: 1-3, L
Jan. 12 vs. Luton Town: 1-1, D
Dec. 30 at Aston Villa: 2-3, L
Dec. 26 vs. Liverpool: 0-2, L
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Newcastle United | Manchester City | Sep. 28 | 7:30 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Arsenal | Leicester City | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | West Ham United | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Chelsea | Brighton & Hove Albion | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Crystal Palace | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Fulham | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Wolves | Liverpool | Sep. 28 | 12:30 p.m. | Molineux |
| Ipswich Town | Aston Villa | Sep. 29 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Tottenham | Sep. 29 | 11:30 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Bournemouth | Southampton | Sep. 30 | 3 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Manchester City | 4-1-0 | 13 | 8 |
| Liverpool | 4-0-1 | 12 | 9 |
| Aston Villa | 4-0-1 | 12 | 3 |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | 11 | 5 |
| Chelsea | 3-1-1 | 10 | 6 |
| Newcastle United | 3-1-1 | 10 | 1 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-3-0 | 9 | 4 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2-3-0 | 9 | 2 |
| Fulham | 2-2-1 | 8 | 2 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-1-2 | 7 | 4 |
| Manchester United | 2-1-2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brentford | 2-0-3 | 6 | -2 |
| Bournemouth | 1-2-2 | 5 | -3 |
| West Ham United | 1-1-3 | 4 | -4 |
| Leicester City | 0-3-2 | 3 | -2 |
| Crystal Palace | 0-3-2 | 3 | -3 |
| Ipswich Town | 0-3-2 | 3 | -5 |
| Southampton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -7 |
| Everton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Aston Villa | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Bournemouth | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Brentford | 3-2-0 | .600 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Chelsea | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Crystal Palace | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Everton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Fulham | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Leicester City | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Liverpool | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester City | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Newcastle United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Southampton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .500 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| West Ham United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
Premier League Betting Odds
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