- Man City is a -0.5-goal favorite against Liverpool.
- City has struggled to earn outright road wins vs. Premier League’s best.
- How to fade Liverpool’s inexperienced defense and goalkeeper.
It’s a marquee Premier League match with title race implications. Below, bettors can find my Man City vs. Liverpool prediction.
Both teams picked up crucial wins last weekend – City 3-1 over Manchester United, Liverpool 1-0 at Nottingham Forest – to remain first and second in the Premier League table.
When these sides met earlier this season, Liverpool captured a 1-1 road draw at the Etihad. In the last five head-to-head Premier League meetings, three have finished level.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my pick for Sunday’s fixture.
EPL Betting Odds – Man City vs. Liverpool
- Man City Moneyline: +130
- Liverpool Moneyline: +175
- Draw Moneyline: +280
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+120/-165)
EPL Prediction – Man City vs. Liverpool
Man City 1H Team Total Over 0.5 (-130)
A long time has passed since this Liverpool defense faced an excellent attack.
In fact, February 4 – at Arsenal – was the last time Liverpool’s defense faced a team fifth or better in non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes, per fbref.com.
In that match, Liverpool looked quite vulnerable early. They allowed a goal inside of 15 minutes, 1.98 xG for the first half, and 0.97 post shot expected goals, per fotmob.com.
The last time they faced City, Liverpool emerged from the starting blocks slow defensively.
Although they allowed only 0.39 expected goals, the post shot xG total for Manchester City was 1.17.
Sample Liverpool’s six games against sides fifth or better in npxG per 90 minutes, and bettors will find they’ve allowed a first half goal in four of six games.
This is also a Liverpool team ripe for negative regression defensively.
Entering Sunday’s game, they’ve surrendered only 25 goals compared to 33 expected, per fbref.com.
As for City, although they failed to score a first half goal against Manchester United, they created 2.83 expected goals and 1.29 post shot expected goals.
Add in the fact that Liverpool goalkeeper Allison won’t feature in Sunday’s match, and I’ll back City to find the net early.
Man City Form
March 6 vs. Copenhagen: 3-1, W (Champions League)
March 3 vs. Manchester United: 3-1, W
Feb. 27 at Luton Town: 6-2, W (FA Cup)
Feb. 24 at Bournemouth: 1-0, W
Feb. 20 vs. Brentford: 1-0, W
Liverpool Form
March 7 at Slavia Prague: 5-1, W (Europa League)
March 2 at Nottingham Forest: 1-0, W
Feb. 28 vs. Southampton: 3-0, W (FA Cup)
Feb. 25 vs. Chelsea: 1-0, W (League Cup, AET)
Feb. 21 vs. Luton Town: 4-1, W
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Brighton | Chelsea | Feb. 14 | 3 p.m. | Amex Stadium |
| Leicester City | Arsenal | Feb. 15 | 7:30 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Aston Villa | Ipswich Town | Feb. 15 | 10 a.m. | Villa Park |
| Fulham | Nottingham Forest | Feb. 15 | 10 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Man City | Newcastle United | Feb. 15 | 10 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Southampton | Bournemouth | Feb. 15 | 10 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| West Ham United | Brentford | Feb. 15 | 10 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Everton | Feb. 15 | 12:30 p.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Liverpool | Wolves | Feb. 16 | 9 a.m. | Anfield |
| Tottenham | Manchester United | Feb. 16 | 11:30 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 17-5-1 | 56 | 35 |
| Arsenal | 14-8-2 | 50 | 27 |
| Nottingham Forest | 14-5-5 | 47 | 13 |
| Chelsea | 12-7-5 | 43 | 16 |
| Manchester City | 12-5-7 | 41 | 13 |
| Newcastle United | 12-5-7 | 41 | 13 |
| Bournemouth | 11-7-6 | 40 | 13 |
| Aston Villa | 10-7-7 | 37 | -3 |
| Fulham | 9-9-6 | 36 | 4 |
| Brighton | 8-10-6 | 34 | -3 |
| Brentford | 9-4-11 | 31 | 0 |
| Crystal Palace | 7-9-8 | 30 | -2 |
| Manchester United | 8-5-11 | 29 | -6 |
| Tottenham | 8-3-13 | 27 | 11 |
| West Ham United | 7-6-11 | 27 | -17 |
| Everton | 6-8-9 | 26 | -5 |
| Wolves | 5-4-15 | 19 | -18 |
| Leicester City | 3-5-15 | 17 | -28 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-7-14 | 16 | -27 |
| Southampton | 2-3-19 | 9 | -36 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 9-10-5 | 47.9% | 3-6-3 | 37.5% | 6-4-2 | 58.3% |
| Aston Villa | 8-15-1 | 35.4% | 3-8-1 | 29.2% | 5-7-0 | 41.7% |
| Bournemouth | 16-8-0 | 66.7% | 7-5-0 | 58.3% | 9-3-0 | 75.0% |
| Brentford | 14-8-2 | 62.5% | 8-5-0 | 61.5% | 6-3-2 | 63.6% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 12-11-1 | 52.1% | 4-7-0 | 36.4% | 8-4-1 | 65.4% |
| Chelsea | 9-13-2 | 41.7% | 4-7-1 | 37.5% | 5-6-1 | 45.8% |
| Crystal Palace | 13-8-3 | 60.4% | 4-5-3 | 45.8% | 9-3-0 | 75.0% |
| Everton | 12-9-2 | 56.5% | 6-5-1 | 54.2% | 6-4-1 | 59.1% |
| Fulham | 14-8-2 | 62.5% | 5-7-0 | 41.7% | 8-2-2 | 75.0% |
| Ipswich Town | 10-13-1 | 43.8% | 4-9-0 | 30.8% | 6-4-1 | 59.1% |
| Leicester City | 11-12-1 | 47.9% | 5-7-0 | 41.7% | 6-5-1 | 54.2% |
| Liverpool | 13-9-1 | 58.7% | 5-5-1 | 50.0% | 8-4-0 | 66.7% |
| Manchester City | 7-17-0 | 29.2% | 3-8-0 | 27.3% | 4-9-0 | 30.8% |
| Manchester United | 10-12-2 | 45.8% | 5-7-1 | 42.3% | 5-5-1 | 50.0% |
| Newcastle United | 13-10-1 | 56.3% | 7-5-0 | 58.3% | 6-5-1 | 54.2% |
| Nottingham Forest | 16-8-0 | 66.7% | 7-5-0 | 58.3% | 9-3-0 | 75.0% |
| Southampton | 9-12-3 | 43.8% | 2-8-1 | 22.7% | 7-4-2 | 61.5% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 9-15-0 | 37.5% | 4-8-0 | 33.3% | 5-7-0 | 41.7% |
| West Ham United | 12-11-1 | 52.1% | 4-7-1 | 37.5% | 8-4-0 | 66.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 10-12-2 | 45.8% | 5-6-1 | 45.8% | 5-6-1 | 45.8% |
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