- Aston Villa is a -0.5-goal favorite against Luton Town.
- Luton Town has proved a good home underdog ATS, but hasn’t earned results.
- Bettors should attack this prop market rather than taking a moneyline.
Before Saturday’s standalone Premier League fixture at Kenilworth Road, I’m set to offer an Aston Villa vs. Luton Town prediction.
Villa enters this match in good form following a 4-2 home win over Nottingham Forest. As for Luton Town, they suffered a 4-1 defeat to Liverpool in their last league fixture.
When these sides met earlier this year, Villa captured a 3-1 win as home favorites.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Saturday’s fixture.
EPL Betting Odds – Aston Villa vs. Luton Town
- Aston Villa Moneyline: -130
- Luton Town Moneyline: +310
- Draw Moneyline: +310
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+115/-160)
EPL Prediction – Aston Villa vs. Luton Town
Correct Score Bands: Villa 2-1, 3-1, 4-1 (+333, 0.5 unit), Luton Town Over 1.5 Goals (+150, 0.5 unit)
When the line first dropped for this match, my gut instinct was to take Luton Town as home underdogs.
After all, this EPL newcomer is 10-2 ATS as home underdogs this season.
However, further research revealed that record can largely be attributed to Luton’s ability to cover big spreads. In those 12 games, they’ve earned points only five times.
On the flip side, Villa has closed a road favorite eight times this season and have captured all three points five times.
Moreover, bettors can expect goals to flow in this game.
Across Luton’s 12 matches as a home dog, they’re producing 1.4 expected goals per 90 minutes while allowing 1.61, per fbref.com.
Conversely, Villa’s eight matches as road favorites saw them create 1.6 expected goals per 90 minutes while allowing 1.31.
I’ll be surprised if Villa scores four goals for the second straight game, but either two or three is within reach.
In the reverse fixture at Villa Park, they created 3.9 post shot expected goals, per fotmob.com.
The big unknown here is what Luton’s offense accomplishes. If the former bet loses, it’s probably because Luton scored two or more goals.
As a result, I’ll hedge based on the fact they created north of two expected goals in the midweek against Manchester City.
But road favorites that won by two or more goals the first time are 68.7% SU since 2018-19, assuming their win percentage is higher than 60%.
As a result, take this creative angle to back Villa rather than laying -130.
Aston Villa Form
Feb. 24 vs. Nottingham Forest: 4-2, W
Feb. 17 at Fulham: 2-1, W
Feb. 11 vs. Manchester United: 1-2, L
Feb. 7 vs. Chelsea: 1-3, L (FA Cup)
Feb. 3 at Sheffield United: 5-0, W
Luton Town Form
Feb. 27 vs. Manchester City: 2-6, L (FA Cup)
Feb. 21 at Liverpool: 1-4, L
Feb. 18 vs. Manchester United: 1-2, L
Feb. 10 vs. Sheffield United: 1-3, L
Feb. 3 at Newcastle United: 4-4, D
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Newcastle United | Manchester City | Sep. 28 | 7:30 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Arsenal | Leicester City | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | West Ham United | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Chelsea | Brighton & Hove Albion | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Crystal Palace | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Fulham | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Wolves | Liverpool | Sep. 28 | 12:30 p.m. | Molineux |
| Ipswich Town | Aston Villa | Sep. 29 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Tottenham | Sep. 29 | 11:30 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Bournemouth | Southampton | Sep. 30 | 3 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Manchester City | 4-1-0 | 13 | 8 |
| Liverpool | 4-0-1 | 12 | 9 |
| Aston Villa | 4-0-1 | 12 | 3 |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | 11 | 5 |
| Chelsea | 3-1-1 | 10 | 6 |
| Newcastle United | 3-1-1 | 10 | 1 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-3-0 | 9 | 4 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2-3-0 | 9 | 2 |
| Fulham | 2-2-1 | 8 | 2 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-1-2 | 7 | 4 |
| Manchester United | 2-1-2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brentford | 2-0-3 | 6 | -2 |
| Bournemouth | 1-2-2 | 5 | -3 |
| West Ham United | 1-1-3 | 4 | -4 |
| Leicester City | 0-3-2 | 3 | -2 |
| Crystal Palace | 0-3-2 | 3 | -3 |
| Ipswich Town | 0-3-2 | 3 | -5 |
| Southampton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -7 |
| Everton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Aston Villa | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Bournemouth | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Brentford | 3-2-0 | .600 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Chelsea | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Crystal Palace | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Everton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Fulham | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Leicester City | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Liverpool | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester City | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Newcastle United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Southampton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .500 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| West Ham United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
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