Brentford vs. Luton Town Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Brentford's Ivan Toney during the English Premier League soccer match between Manchester City and Brentford at Etihad stadium in Manchester, England, Tuesday, Feb. 20, 2024.
(Rui Vieira/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Apr 19, 2024, 12:09 PM
  • Brentford is a -0.5-goal favorite against Luton Town.
  • Brentford earned a 3-1 home win in the last head-to-head meeting.
  • Two prop bets bettors should look to for Saturday’s fixture.

Two bottom-half Premier League teams meet at Kenilworth Road on Saturday as Luton Town host Brentford. 

The hosts enter this game fresh off a bad defeat to Manchester City. Albeit away from home, manager Rob Edwards’ side fell 5-1 to the title holders. 

Meanwhile, Brentford captured a 2-0 home win over relegation-threatened Sheffield United last weekend. That marks four straight matches unbeaten for Thomas Frank’s side. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Saturday’s fixture. 

EPL Betting Odds – Brentford vs. Luton Town

  • Brentford Moneyline: +120
  • Luton Town Moneyline: +220
  • Draw Moneyline: +270
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+130/-185)

EPL Prediction – Brentford vs. Luton Town

Both Teams to Score – “Yes,” Second Half (+155) | Second Half Highest Scoring Half (-105)

Although it’s only a two-match sample, Luton Town’s defense has held up well early at home. 

In their most recent first half against Bournemouth, the two sides combined for only 0.44 expected goals in the first half, with both failing to score. 

The proverbial floodgates opened in the second half with three goals off 2.23 post-shot expected goals between the two sides. 

Similar trends occurred in Luton’s previous home game against Wolves. The first half featured only 0.53 expected goals, with 2.2 xG in the second half. 

Again, both teams scored in that second half between Luton and Wolves. 

Although the personnel was different when Luton Town and Brentford last met, the second half proved much more eventful. 

Brentford created 78% of their final xG tally in the second half while scoring all three goals in the second 45 minutes. 

As for Luton Town, they created only 0.23 xG for the match, all of which came in the second half. Further, their lone goal came beyond the halftime interval. 

In terms of their season-long metrics, both teams tend to perform better after halftime. 

Brentford have created 61% of their xG total after halftime while Luton have created 66% of their xG total after halftime. 

Further, Luton have cashed the BTTS – “Yes” prop in the second half in 17 of 33 matches this season, including 10 of 16 home matches. 

Plus, Luton’s second halves have featured 77 goals compared to only 39 goals in the first half. Brentford second halves have featured 65 goals compared to only 40 in the first half. 

As a result, I find these prices a total bargain. Back both in what’s expected to be a high-scoring game between two bad defenses. 

Brentford Form 

April 13 vs. Sheffield United: 2-0, W

April 6 at Aston Villa: 3-3, D

April 3 vs. Brighton: 0-0, D

March 30 vs. Manchester United: 1-1, D

March 16 at Burnley: 1-2, L

Luton Town Form

April 13 at Manchester City: 1-5, L

April 6 vs. Bournemouth: 2-1, W

April 3 at Arsenal: 0-2, L

March 30 at Tottenham: 1-2, L

March 16 vs. Nottingham Forest: 1-1, D

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.