- Brentford is a -0.5-goal favorite against Luton Town.
- Brentford earned a 3-1 home win in the last head-to-head meeting.
- Two prop bets bettors should look to for Saturday’s fixture.
Two bottom-half Premier League teams meet at Kenilworth Road on Saturday as Luton Town host Brentford.
The hosts enter this game fresh off a bad defeat to Manchester City. Albeit away from home, manager Rob Edwards’ side fell 5-1 to the title holders.
Meanwhile, Brentford captured a 2-0 home win over relegation-threatened Sheffield United last weekend. That marks four straight matches unbeaten for Thomas Frank’s side.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Saturday’s fixture.
EPL Betting Odds – Brentford vs. Luton Town
- Brentford Moneyline: +120
- Luton Town Moneyline: +220
- Draw Moneyline: +270
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+130/-185)
EPL Prediction – Brentford vs. Luton Town
Both Teams to Score – “Yes,” Second Half (+155) | Second Half Highest Scoring Half (-105)
Although it’s only a two-match sample, Luton Town’s defense has held up well early at home.
In their most recent first half against Bournemouth, the two sides combined for only 0.44 expected goals in the first half, with both failing to score.
The proverbial floodgates opened in the second half with three goals off 2.23 post-shot expected goals between the two sides.
Similar trends occurred in Luton’s previous home game against Wolves. The first half featured only 0.53 expected goals, with 2.2 xG in the second half.
Again, both teams scored in that second half between Luton and Wolves.
Although the personnel was different when Luton Town and Brentford last met, the second half proved much more eventful.
Brentford created 78% of their final xG tally in the second half while scoring all three goals in the second 45 minutes.
As for Luton Town, they created only 0.23 xG for the match, all of which came in the second half. Further, their lone goal came beyond the halftime interval.
In terms of their season-long metrics, both teams tend to perform better after halftime.
Brentford have created 61% of their xG total after halftime while Luton have created 66% of their xG total after halftime.
Further, Luton have cashed the BTTS – “Yes” prop in the second half in 17 of 33 matches this season, including 10 of 16 home matches.
Plus, Luton’s second halves have featured 77 goals compared to only 39 goals in the first half. Brentford second halves have featured 65 goals compared to only 40 in the first half.
As a result, I find these prices a total bargain. Back both in what’s expected to be a high-scoring game between two bad defenses.
Brentford Form
April 13 vs. Sheffield United: 2-0, W
April 6 at Aston Villa: 3-3, D
April 3 vs. Brighton: 0-0, D
March 30 vs. Manchester United: 1-1, D
March 16 at Burnley: 1-2, L
Luton Town Form
April 13 at Manchester City: 1-5, L
April 6 vs. Bournemouth: 2-1, W
April 3 at Arsenal: 0-2, L
March 30 at Tottenham: 1-2, L
March 16 vs. Nottingham Forest: 1-1, D
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Everton | West Ham United | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Ipswich Town | Nottingham Forest | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Manchester City | Brighton | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Southampton | Wolves | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Bournemouth | Brentford | Mar. 15 | 1:30 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Arsenal | Chelsea | Mar. 16 | 9:30 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Fulham | Tottenham | Mar. 16 | 9:30 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Leicester City | Manchester United | Mar. 16 | 3 p.m. | King Power Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 21-7-1 | 70 | 42 |
| Arsenal | 16-10-3 | 58 | 29 |
| Nottingham Forest | 16-6-7 | 54 | 14 |
| Chelsea | 14-7-8 | 49 | 16 |
| Manchester City | 14-6-9 | 48 | 15 |
| Newcastle United | 14-5-9 | 47 | 9 |
| Brighton | 12-11-6 | 47 | 6 |
| Fulham | 12-9-8 | 45 | 5 |
| Aston Villa | 12-9-8 | 45 | -4 |
| Bournemouth | 12-8-9 | 44 | 12 |
| Brentford | 12-5-12 | 41 | 5 |
| Crystal Palace | 10-9-9 | 39 | 3 |
| Manchester United | 10-7-12 | 37 | -3 |
| Tottenham | 10-4-15 | 34 | 12 |
| Everton | 7-13-9 | 34 | -4 |
| West Ham | 9-7-13 | 34 | -16 |
| Wolves | 7-5-17 | 26 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-8-18 | 17 | -34 |
| Leicester City | 4-5-20 | 17 | -40 |
| Southampton | 2-3-24 | 9 | -49 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 11-13-5 | 46.6% | 4-7-3 | 39.3% | 7-6-2 | 53.3% |
| Aston Villa | 11-17-1 | 40.0% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 6-8-0 | 42.9% |
| Bournemouth | 17-11-1 | 60.3% | 7-7-0 | 50.0% | 10-4-1 | 70.0% |
| Brentford | 17-10-2 | 62.1% | 8-7-0 | 53.3% | 9-3-2 | 71.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-11-1 | 60.3% | 7-7-0 | 59.0% | 10-4-1 | 70.0% |
| Chelsea | 10-17-2 | 37.9% | 5-8-1 | 39.3% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% |
| Crystal Palace | 16-9-3 | 62.5% | 6-6-3 | 50.0% | 10-3-0 | 76.9% |
| Everton | 15-10-4 | 58.6% | 7-6-2 | 53.3% | 8-4-2 | 64.3% |
| Fulham | 17-10-2 | 62.1% | 7-8-0 | 46.7% | 9-3-2 | 71.4% |
| Ipswich Town | 11-16-2 | 41.4% | 4-11-0 | 26.7% | 7-5-2 | 57.1% |
| Leicester City | 12-16-1 | 43.1% | 5-10-0 | 33.3% | 7-6-1 | 53.6% |
| Liverpool | 15-13-1 | 53.4% | 6-7-1 | 46.4% | 9-6-0 | 60.0% |
| Manchester City | 9-20-0 | 31.0% | 4-10-0 | 28.6% | 5-10-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 12-13-4 | 48.3% | 6-7-2 | 46.7% | 6-6-2 | 50.0% |
| Newcastle United | 15-12-1 | 55.4% | 8-5-0 | 61.5% | 7-7-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 19-10-0 | 65.5% | 9-5-0 | 64.3% | 10-5-0 | 66.7% |
| Southampton | 10-16-3 | 39.7% | 2-11-1 | 17.9% | 8-5-2 | 60.0% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 11-17-1 | 39.7% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 6-8-0 | 42.9% |
| West Ham United | 15-13-1 | 53.4% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 10-4-0 | 71.4% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 13-13-3 | 50.0% | 5-7-2 | 42.9% | 8-6-1 | 56.7% |
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