- Luton Town is a +0.5-goal underdog against Fulham.
- Fulham earned a 1-0 win in the reverse fixture at Craven Cottage.
- Why bettors should look to the total for Sunday’s match.
In a meaningless Premier League fixture on Championship Sunday, Luton Town welcomes Fulham to Kenilworth Road.
Luton need a miracle to stay up in the Premier League next season. They need to win by six or more goals against Fulham and have Nottingham Forest lose by six or more to Burnley.
In bad news for Luton, they lost 1-0 at Fulham in the reverse fixture.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Sunday’s match.
EPL Odds – Luton Town vs. Fulham
- Luton Town Moneyline: +170
- Fulham Moneyline: +130
- Draw Moneyline: +290
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+105/-145)
Premier League Prediction – Luton Town vs. Fulham
Total Over 3.5 Goals (+105)
Save for their most recent road match against Brentford, Fulham have played a lot of bad defenses away from home recently.
All six of their previous road matches came against sides 11th or worse in non-penalty expected goals allowed per 90 minutes.
Fulham’s attack thrived in those contests. They scored at least two goals four times and created 1.88 expected goals per 90 minutes.
The only issue? Their defense didn’t match the offensive level. Fulham held only two of those teams under one expected goal, with the matches averaging 3.32 expected goals.
They also won’t have two good defenders on Sunday — Tosin Adadrabioyo and Issa Diop — which should open them up without the ball.
Plus, this rates out a nice buy-low spot on the Luton attack, which hasn’t faced a bad defense at home in quite some time.
The last time they played a team 11th or worse in npxGA per 90 minutes was March 2 against Aston Villa.
Sample Luton’s last four home matches against such opponents, and bettors will find they’ve created 1.93 expected goals per 90 minutes.
They’re also a positive regression candidate based on that four-match sample as they’ve scored six goals off 7.7 expected.
In that four-match sample, Luton played two sides that ranked 11th or worse in non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes: Manchester United and Sheffield United.
Those two matches combined to average 4.1 combined expected goals per 90 minutes, with both reaching at least three goals.
This fixture also features two system matches.
Since 2012-13, the over is 53-31 (63.1%) when the total is 2.5 or 3.5 in March, April or May and the home team has a winning percentage under 20%.
Additionally, overs this season are 50-22 when the home team lost their previous game, and the road team allows north of 1.4 goals per game, assuming the total is 2.5 or 3.5.
Over the last three seasons, that system is 130-86 to the over, including 41-25 when the game is played in March onwards.
As a result, I’ll bet on goals Sunday at Kenilworth Road.
Luton Town Form
May 11 at West Ham: 1-3, L
May 3 vs. Everton: 1-1, D
April 27 at Wolves: 1-2, L
April 20 vs. Brentford: 1-5, L
April 13 at Man City: 1-5, L
Fulham Form
May 11 vs. Man City: 0-4, L
May 4 at Brentford: 0-0, D
April 27 vs. Crystal Palace: 1-1, D
April 21 vs. Liverpool: 3-1, W
April 14 at West Ham: 2-0, W
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Newcastle United | Manchester City | Sep. 28 | 7:30 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Arsenal | Leicester City | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | West Ham United | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Chelsea | Brighton & Hove Albion | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Crystal Palace | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Fulham | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Wolves | Liverpool | Sep. 28 | 12:30 p.m. | Molineux |
| Ipswich Town | Aston Villa | Sep. 29 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Tottenham | Sep. 29 | 11:30 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Bournemouth | Southampton | Sep. 30 | 3 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Manchester City | 4-1-0 | 13 | 8 |
| Liverpool | 4-0-1 | 12 | 9 |
| Aston Villa | 4-0-1 | 12 | 3 |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | 11 | 5 |
| Chelsea | 3-1-1 | 10 | 6 |
| Newcastle United | 3-1-1 | 10 | 1 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-3-0 | 9 | 4 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2-3-0 | 9 | 2 |
| Fulham | 2-2-1 | 8 | 2 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-1-2 | 7 | 4 |
| Manchester United | 2-1-2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brentford | 2-0-3 | 6 | -2 |
| Bournemouth | 1-2-2 | 5 | -3 |
| West Ham United | 1-1-3 | 4 | -4 |
| Leicester City | 0-3-2 | 3 | -2 |
| Crystal Palace | 0-3-2 | 3 | -3 |
| Ipswich Town | 0-3-2 | 3 | -5 |
| Southampton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -7 |
| Everton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Aston Villa | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Bournemouth | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Brentford | 3-2-0 | .600 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Chelsea | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Crystal Palace | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Everton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Fulham | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Leicester City | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Liverpool | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester City | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Newcastle United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Southampton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .500 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| West Ham United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
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