Luton Town vs. Fulham Prediction, Expert Pick | EPL – BetMGM

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Fulham's Antonee Robinson runs after a loose ball during the English Premier League soccer match between Fulham and Aston Villa at Craven cottage stadium in London, Saturday, Feb. 17, 2024.
(Alastair Grant/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion May 16, 2024, 2:47 PM
  • Luton Town is a +0.5-goal underdog against Fulham.
  • Fulham earned a 1-0 win in the reverse fixture at Craven Cottage.
  • Why bettors should look to the total for Sunday’s match.

In a meaningless Premier League fixture on Championship Sunday, Luton Town welcomes Fulham to Kenilworth Road. 

Luton need a miracle to stay up in the Premier League next season. They need to win by six or more goals against Fulham and have Nottingham Forest lose by six or more to Burnley. 

In bad news for Luton, they lost 1-0 at Fulham in the reverse fixture. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Sunday’s match. 

EPL Odds – Luton Town vs. Fulham

  • Luton Town Moneyline: +170
  • Fulham Moneyline: +130
  • Draw Moneyline: +290
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+105/-145)

Premier League Prediction – Luton Town vs. Fulham

Total Over 3.5 Goals (+105)

Save for their most recent road match against Brentford, Fulham have played a lot of bad defenses away from home recently. 

All six of their previous road matches came against sides 11th or worse in non-penalty expected goals allowed per 90 minutes. 

Fulham’s attack thrived in those contests. They scored at least two goals four times and created 1.88 expected goals per 90 minutes. 

The only issue? Their defense didn’t match the offensive level. Fulham held only two of those teams under one expected goal, with the matches averaging 3.32 expected goals. 

They also won’t have two good defenders on Sunday — Tosin Adadrabioyo and Issa Diop — which should open them up without the ball. 

Plus, this rates out a nice buy-low spot on the Luton attack, which hasn’t faced a bad defense at home in quite some time. 

The last time they played a team 11th or worse in npxGA per 90 minutes was March 2 against Aston Villa. 

Sample Luton’s last four home matches against such opponents, and bettors will find they’ve created 1.93 expected goals per 90 minutes. 

They’re also a positive regression candidate based on that four-match sample as they’ve scored six goals off 7.7 expected. 

In that four-match sample, Luton played two sides that ranked 11th or worse in non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes: Manchester United and Sheffield United. 

Those two matches combined to average 4.1 combined expected goals per 90 minutes, with both reaching at least three goals. 

This fixture also features two system matches. 

Since 2012-13, the over is 53-31 (63.1%) when the total is 2.5 or 3.5 in March, April or May and the home team has a winning percentage under 20%. 

Additionally, overs this season are 50-22 when the home team lost their previous game, and the road team allows north of 1.4 goals per game, assuming the total is 2.5 or 3.5.

Over the last three seasons, that system is 130-86 to the over, including 41-25 when the game is played in March onwards.  

As a result, I’ll bet on goals Sunday at Kenilworth Road. 

Luton Town Form 

May 11 at West Ham: 1-3, L

May 3 vs. Everton: 1-1, D

April 27 at Wolves: 1-2, L

April 20 vs. Brentford: 1-5, L

April 13 at Man City: 1-5, L

Fulham Form

May 11 vs. Man City: 0-4, L

May 4 at Brentford: 0-0, D

April 27 vs. Crystal Palace: 1-1, D

April 21 vs. Liverpool: 3-1, W

April 14 at West Ham: 2-0, W

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.