Luton Town vs. Fulham Prediction, Expert Pick | EPL – BetMGM

Fulham's Antonee Robinson runs after a loose ball during the English Premier League soccer match between Fulham and Aston Villa at Craven cottage stadium in London, Saturday, Feb. 17, 2024.
(Alastair Grant/AP Photo)
  • Luton Town is a +0.5-goal underdog against Fulham.
  • Fulham earned a 1-0 win in the reverse fixture at Craven Cottage.
  • Why bettors should look to the total for Sundayโ€™s match.

In a meaningless Premier League fixture on Championship Sunday, Luton Town welcomes Fulham to Kenilworth Road.ย 

Luton need a miracle to stay up in the Premier League next season. They need to win by six or more goals against Fulham and have Nottingham Forest lose by six or more to Burnley.ย 

In bad news for Luton, they lost 1-0 at Fulham in the reverse fixture.ย 

Hereโ€™s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Sundayโ€™s match.ย 

EPL Odds – Luton Town vs. Fulham

  • Luton Town Moneyline: +170
  • Fulham Moneyline: +130
  • Draw Moneyline: +290
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+105/-145)

Premier League Prediction – Luton Town vs. Fulham

Total Over 3.5 Goals (+105)

Save for their most recent road match against Brentford, Fulham have played a lot of bad defenses away from home recently.ย 

All six of their previous road matches came against sides 11th or worse in non-penalty expected goals allowed per 90 minutes.ย 

Fulhamโ€™s attack thrived in those contests. They scored at least two goals four times and created 1.88 expected goals per 90 minutes.ย 

The only issue? Their defense didnโ€™t match the offensive level. Fulham held only two of those teams under one expected goal, with the matches averaging 3.32 expected goals.ย 

They also wonโ€™t have two good defenders on Sunday โ€” Tosin Adadrabioyo and Issa Diop โ€” which should open them up without the ball.ย 

Plus, this rates out a nice buy-low spot on the Luton attack, which hasnโ€™t faced a bad defense at home in quite some time.ย 

The last time they played a team 11th or worse in npxGA per 90 minutes was March 2 against Aston Villa.ย 

Sample Lutonโ€™s last four home matches against such opponents, and bettors will find theyโ€™ve created 1.93 expected goals per 90 minutes.ย 

Theyโ€™re also a positive regression candidate based on that four-match sample as theyโ€™ve scored six goals off 7.7 expected.ย 

In that four-match sample, Luton played two sides that ranked 11th or worse in non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes: Manchester United and Sheffield United.ย 

Those two matches combined to average 4.1 combined expected goals per 90 minutes, with both reaching at least three goals.ย 

This fixture also features two system matches.ย 

Since 2012-13, the over is 53-31 (63.1%) when the total is 2.5 or 3.5 in March, April or May and the home team has a winning percentage under 20%.ย 

Additionally, overs this season are 50-22 when the home team lost their previous game, and the road team allows north of 1.4 goals per game, assuming the total is 2.5 or 3.5.

Over the last three seasons, that system is 130-86 to the over, including 41-25 when the game is played in March onwards.ย ย 

As a result, Iโ€™ll bet on goals Sunday at Kenilworth Road.ย 

Luton Town Formย 

May 11 at West Ham: 1-3, L

May 3 vs. Everton: 1-1, D

April 27 at Wolves: 1-2, L

April 20 vs. Brentford: 1-5, L

April 13 at Man City: 1-5, L

Fulham Form

May 11 vs. Man City: 0-4, L

May 4 at Brentford: 0-0, D

April 27 vs. Crystal Palace: 1-1, D

April 21 vs. Liverpool: 3-1, W

April 14 at West Ham: 2-0, W

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
Newcastle UnitedManchester CitySep. 287:30 a.m.St. James' Park
ArsenalLeicester CitySep. 2810 a.m.Emirates Stadium
BrentfordWest Ham UnitedSep. 2810 a.m.GTech Community Stadium
ChelseaBrighton & Hove AlbionSep. 2810 a.m.Stamford Bridge
EvertonCrystal PalaceSep. 2810 a.m.Goodison Park
Nottingham ForestFulhamSep. 2810 a.m.The City Ground
WolvesLiverpoolSep. 2812:30 p.m.Molineux
Ipswich TownAston VillaSep. 299 a.m.Portman Road
Manchester UnitedTottenhamSep. 2911:30 a.m.Old Trafford
BournemouthSouthamptonSep. 303 p.m. Vitality Stadium

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal Differential
Manchester City4-1-0138
Liverpool4-0-1129
Aston Villa4-0-1123
Arsenal3-2-0115
Chelsea3-1-1106
Newcastle United3-1-1101
Brighton & Hove Albion2-3-094
Nottingham Forest2-3-092
Fulham2-2-182
Tottenham Hotspur2-1-274
Manchester United2-1-270
Brentford2-0-36-2
Bournemouth1-2-25-3
West Ham United1-1-34-4
Leicester City0-3-23-2
Crystal Palace0-3-23-3
Ipswich Town0-3-23-5
Southampton0-1-41-7
Everton0-1-41-9
Wolverhampton Wanderers0-1-41-9

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Arsenal3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Aston Villa4-1-0.8002-1-0.6672-0-01.000
Bournemouth3-2-0.6001-1-0.5002-1-0.667
Brentford3-2-0.6002-0-01.0001-2-0.333
Brighton & Hove Albion3-2-0.6001-2-0.3332-0-01.000
Chelsea3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Crystal Palace2-3-0.4001-2-0.3331-1-0.500
Everton1-4-0.2000-2-0.0001-2-0.333
Fulham2-3-0.4002-1-0.6670-2-0.000
Ipswich Town3-2-0.6001-1-0.5002-1-0.667
Leicester City2-3-0.4001-2-0.3331-1-0.500
Liverpool4-1-0.8002-1-0.6672-0-01.000
Manchester City3-2-0.6001-2-0.3332-0-01.000
Manchester United2-3-0.4001-1-0.5001-2-0.333
Newcastle United2-3-0.4001-1-0.5001-2-0.333
Nottingham Forest3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Southampton1-4-0.2000-3-0.0001-1-0.500
Tottenham Hotspur2-3-0.4002-1-0.5000-2-0.000
West Ham United2-3-0.4000-3-0.0002-0-01.000
Wolverhampton Wanderers2-3-0.4000-2-0.0002-1-0.667

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.