- Nottingham Forest is a -0.5-goal favorite against Luton Town.
- These sides played to a 2-2 draw in the reverse fixture at the City Ground.
- Bettors should play this same game parlay for Saturday’s fixture.
It’s a weekend Premier League clash with relegation implications, and I’m here to provide a Nottingham Forest vs. Luton Town prediction.
Luton will play this match on short rest following a Wednesday clash at Bournemouth. After taking a 3-0 lead, Luton conceded four straight to lose outright.
As for Nottingham Forest, they’re coming off a weekend loss to Brighton & Hove Albion, their third straight league defeat.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Saturday’s match.
EPL Betting Odds – Nottingham Forest vs. Luton Town
- Nottingham Forest Moneyline: +145
- Luton Town Moneyline: +170
- Draw Moneyline: +260
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-150/+110)
EPL Prediction – Nottingham Forest vs. Luton Town
Same Game Parlay: Both Teams to Score + Over 2.5 Goals (-125)
The fact this isn’t -150 makes this feel like a trap, but I’m willing to pay to find out.
Luton Town’s attack has played really well of late, particularly at home.
After creating 2.06 expected goals in the midweek against Bournemouth, Forest return to Kenilworth Road, where they’ve created at least 1.8 expected goals in five straight matches.
They also generated 1.7 expected goals in the reverse fixture against Nottingham Forest, so I’m confident they can (at minimum) find the net once.
Plus, four of Luton’s last five Premier League home fixtures have seen both teams score, with the Premier League newcomers hitting the “yes” side in eight of their last nine.
All that said, I question how Luton Town’s defense keeps out Nottingham Forest.
The Tricky Trees created three expected goals in the reverse fixture and have shown some offensive prowess recently.
Despite creating only 0.7 expected goals at Brighton last weekend, Forest generated at least 1.5 expected goals in three of their previous four matches and at least one xG in all four.
Included in the latter sample is a home match against Newcastle United in which Forest created 1.5 expected goals.
Sample three matches under new manager Nuno Espirito Santo and bettors will find Forest created 1.9 expected goals per 90 minutes, per fbref.com.
In nine matches against sides allowing north of 1.6 npxG per 90 minutes this season, Forest has created 1.82 expected goals per 90.
As a result, expect ample goals from Forest against the league’s worst defense. Bet to -135.
Nottingham Forest Form
March 10 at Brighton: 0-1, L
March 2 vs. Liverpool: 0-1, L
Feb. 28 vs. Manchester United: 0-1, L (FA Cup)
Feb. 24 at Aston Villa: 2-4, L
Feb. 17 vs. West Ham United: 2-0, W
Luton Town Form
March 13 at Bournemouth: 3-4, L
March 9 at Crystal Palace: 1-1, D
March 2 vs. Aston Villa: 2-3, L
Feb. 27 vs. Manchester City: 2-6, L (FA Cup)
Feb. 21 at Liverpool: 1-4, L
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Everton | West Ham United | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Ipswich Town | Nottingham Forest | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Manchester City | Brighton | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Southampton | Wolves | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Bournemouth | Brentford | Mar. 15 | 1:30 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Arsenal | Chelsea | Mar. 16 | 9:30 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Fulham | Tottenham | Mar. 16 | 9:30 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Leicester City | Manchester United | Mar. 16 | 3 p.m. | King Power Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 21-7-1 | 70 | 42 |
| Arsenal | 16-10-3 | 58 | 29 |
| Nottingham Forest | 16-6-7 | 54 | 14 |
| Chelsea | 14-7-8 | 49 | 16 |
| Manchester City | 14-6-9 | 48 | 15 |
| Newcastle United | 14-5-9 | 47 | 9 |
| Brighton | 12-11-6 | 47 | 6 |
| Fulham | 12-9-8 | 45 | 5 |
| Aston Villa | 12-9-8 | 45 | -4 |
| Bournemouth | 12-8-9 | 44 | 12 |
| Brentford | 12-5-12 | 41 | 5 |
| Crystal Palace | 10-9-9 | 39 | 3 |
| Manchester United | 10-7-12 | 37 | -3 |
| Tottenham | 10-4-15 | 34 | 12 |
| Everton | 7-13-9 | 34 | -4 |
| West Ham | 9-7-13 | 34 | -16 |
| Wolves | 7-5-17 | 26 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-8-18 | 17 | -34 |
| Leicester City | 4-5-20 | 17 | -40 |
| Southampton | 2-3-24 | 9 | -49 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 11-13-5 | 46.6% | 4-7-3 | 39.3% | 7-6-2 | 53.3% |
| Aston Villa | 11-17-1 | 40.0% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 6-8-0 | 42.9% |
| Bournemouth | 17-11-1 | 60.3% | 7-7-0 | 50.0% | 10-4-1 | 70.0% |
| Brentford | 17-10-2 | 62.1% | 8-7-0 | 53.3% | 9-3-2 | 71.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-11-1 | 60.3% | 7-7-0 | 59.0% | 10-4-1 | 70.0% |
| Chelsea | 10-17-2 | 37.9% | 5-8-1 | 39.3% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% |
| Crystal Palace | 16-9-3 | 62.5% | 6-6-3 | 50.0% | 10-3-0 | 76.9% |
| Everton | 15-10-4 | 58.6% | 7-6-2 | 53.3% | 8-4-2 | 64.3% |
| Fulham | 17-10-2 | 62.1% | 7-8-0 | 46.7% | 9-3-2 | 71.4% |
| Ipswich Town | 11-16-2 | 41.4% | 4-11-0 | 26.7% | 7-5-2 | 57.1% |
| Leicester City | 12-16-1 | 43.1% | 5-10-0 | 33.3% | 7-6-1 | 53.6% |
| Liverpool | 15-13-1 | 53.4% | 6-7-1 | 46.4% | 9-6-0 | 60.0% |
| Manchester City | 9-20-0 | 31.0% | 4-10-0 | 28.6% | 5-10-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 12-13-4 | 48.3% | 6-7-2 | 46.7% | 6-6-2 | 50.0% |
| Newcastle United | 15-12-1 | 55.4% | 8-5-0 | 61.5% | 7-7-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 19-10-0 | 65.5% | 9-5-0 | 64.3% | 10-5-0 | 66.7% |
| Southampton | 10-16-3 | 39.7% | 2-11-1 | 17.9% | 8-5-2 | 60.0% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 11-17-1 | 39.7% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 6-8-0 | 42.9% |
| West Ham United | 15-13-1 | 53.4% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 10-4-0 | 71.4% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 13-13-3 | 50.0% | 5-7-2 | 42.9% | 8-6-1 | 56.7% |
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