Nottingham Forest vs. Luton Town Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Nottingham Forest's Taiwo Awoniyi, centre, celebrates with teammates after scoring his side's opening goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Manchester United and Nottingham Forest at the Old Trafford stadium in Manchester, England, Saturday, Aug. 26, 2023.
(Jon Super/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Mar 15, 2024, 2:14 PM
  • Nottingham Forest is a -0.5-goal favorite against Luton Town.
  • These sides played to a 2-2 draw in the reverse fixture at the City Ground.
  • Bettors should play this same game parlay for Saturday’s fixture.

It’s a weekend Premier League clash with relegation implications, and I’m here to provide a Nottingham Forest vs. Luton Town prediction. 

Luton will play this match on short rest following a Wednesday clash at Bournemouth. After taking a 3-0 lead, Luton conceded four straight to lose outright. 

As for Nottingham Forest, they’re coming off a weekend loss to Brighton & Hove Albion, their third straight league defeat. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Saturday’s match. 

EPL Betting Odds – Nottingham Forest vs. Luton Town

  • Nottingham Forest Moneyline: +145
  • Luton Town Moneyline: +170
  • Draw Moneyline: +260
  • Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-150/+110)

EPL Prediction – Nottingham Forest vs. Luton Town

Same Game Parlay: Both Teams to Score + Over 2.5 Goals (-125)

The fact this isn’t -150 makes this feel like a trap, but I’m willing to pay to find out. 

Luton Town’s attack has played really well of late, particularly at home. 

After creating 2.06 expected goals in the midweek against Bournemouth, Forest return to Kenilworth Road, where they’ve created at least 1.8 expected goals in five straight matches. 

They also generated 1.7 expected goals in the reverse fixture against Nottingham Forest, so I’m confident they can (at minimum) find the net once. 

Plus, four of Luton’s last five Premier League home fixtures have seen both teams score, with the Premier League newcomers hitting the “yes” side in eight of their last nine. 

All that said, I question how Luton Town’s defense keeps out Nottingham Forest. 

The Tricky Trees created three expected goals in the reverse fixture and have shown some offensive prowess recently. 

Despite creating only 0.7 expected goals at Brighton last weekend, Forest generated at least 1.5 expected goals in three of their previous four matches and at least one xG in all four. 

Included in the latter sample is a home match against Newcastle United in which Forest created 1.5 expected goals. 

Sample three matches under new manager Nuno Espirito Santo and bettors will find Forest created 1.9 expected goals per 90 minutes, per fbref.com. 

In nine matches against sides allowing north of 1.6 npxG per 90 minutes this season, Forest has created 1.82 expected goals per 90. 

As a result, expect ample goals from Forest against the league’s worst defense. Bet to -135. 

Nottingham Forest Form 

March 10 at Brighton: 0-1, L

March 2 vs. Liverpool: 0-1, L

Feb. 28 vs. Manchester United: 0-1, L (FA Cup)

Feb. 24 at Aston Villa: 2-4, L

Feb. 17 vs. West Ham United: 2-0, W

Luton Town Form

March 13 at Bournemouth: 3-4, L

March 9 at Crystal Palace: 1-1, D

March 2 vs. Aston Villa: 2-3, L

Feb. 27 vs. Manchester City: 2-6, L (FA Cup)

Feb. 21 at Liverpool: 1-4, L

EPL Match Schedule This Weekend

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
Newcastle UnitedTottenhamApr. 137:30 AMSt. James' Park
BrentfordSheffield UnitedApr. 1310:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
BurnleyBrightonApr. 1310:00 AMTurf Moor
Man CityLuton TownApr. 1310:00 AMEtihad Stadium
Nottingham ForestWolvesApr. 1310:00 AMThe City Ground
BournemouthManchester UnitedApr. 1312:30 PMVitality Stadium
LiverpoolCrystal PalaceApr. 149:00 AMAnfield
West Ham UnitedFulhamApr. 149:00 AMLondon Stadium
ArsenalAston VillaApr. 1411:30 PMEmirates Stadium
ChelseaEvertonApr. 153:00 PMStamford Bridge

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City22-7-37344---
Arsenal FC22-5-57149---
Liverpool FC21-8-37141---
Aston Villa FC19-6-86319---
Tottenham Hotspur18-6-86016---
Newcastle United15-5-125017---
Manchester United15-5-1250-1---
West Ham United13-9-1148-6---
Chelsea FC13-8-10478---
Brighton & Hove Albion11-11-10442---
Wolves12-7-1343-5---
Fulham FC12-6-1542-2---
Bournemouth11-9-1242-10---
Crystal Palace8-9-1533-17---
Brentford8-8-1732-11---
Everton9-8-1527-158 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest7-9-1726-164 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-7-2025-24---
Burnley FC4-8-2120-35---
Sheffield United3-7-2216-54---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Arsenal18-13.5818-7.53310-6.625
Aston Villa16-15-1.51610-6.6256-9-1.406
Bournemouth18-12-2.5949-6-2.5889-6.600
Brentford12-19-2.3946-10-1.3826-9-1.406
Brighton & Hove Albion15-16-1.4848-7.5337-9-1.441
Burnley13-19-1.4094-12-1.2659-7.563
Chelsea15-16.48410-6.6255-10.333
Crystal Palace15-17.4696-9.4009-8.529
Everton14-18.4387-8.4677-10.412
Fulham17-15-1.53010-5-1.6567-10.412
Liverpool16-16.5009-8.5297-8.467
Luton Town21-11-1.65212-4.7509-7-1.559
Manchester City14-18.4387-10.4127-8.467
Manchester United12-19-1.3916-9.4006-10-1.382
Newcastle United16-16.50011-6.6475-10.333
Nottingham Forest14-17-2.4555-11-1.3249-6-1.594
Sheffield United18-14.5639-7.5639-7.563
Tottenham Hotspur18-14.5639-7.5639-7.563
West Ham United17-16.51510-7.5887-9.438
Wolverhampton Wanderers16-15-1.5168-7.5339-7-1.559

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.