- Man City is a -0.5-goal favorite against Arsenal.
- Arsenal earned a 1-0 win in the previous head-to-head meeting.
- Apply these betting systems to construct a Same Game Parlay.
It’s a Premier League fixture that could decide the 2023-24 title race. Below, bettors can find my Man City vs. Arsenal prediction.
Hosts City sit one point behind Arsenal in the current Premier League table and lost 1-0 at the Emirates. However, they enter Sunday’s fixture on a 13-match unbeaten run in league play.
Arsenal have produced a similar run of form. Manager Mikel Arteta’s side has captured eight straight wins in the league to sit atop the table.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for this marquee fixture.
EPL Betting Odds – Man City vs. Arsenal
- Man City Moneyline: -120
- Arsenal Moneyline: +310
- Draw Moneyline: +275
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-145/+105)
EPL Prediction – Man City vs. Arsenal
Same Game Parlay: Man City Double Chance & Under 3.5 Goals (-125)
I’ll be shocked if Manchester City lose this game outright, but I want to protect against a draw.
This season, City has yet to drop all three points at home and has won 10 of 14 matches.
Plus, under Pep Guardiola, City is 52-9 straight up following a non-win and 56-5 against +0.5 in those matches.
Plus, bettors have seen home favorites that lost the previous head-to-head do very well recently.
Since 2017-18, such teams – assuming their win percentage is higher than 55% – are 24-7 straight up in games 20-38, including 3-3 this season.
Manchester City has also proved quite good whenever they’re a short home favorite.
Since 2017-18, City is 10-3 SU when their moneyline is between -110 and -200.
As for the total, bettors should expect a low-scoring match.
These sides combined for only 0.9 expected goals when they met at the Emirates, and City operated without key defensive ballstopper Rodri.
Arsenal managed a goal off only 0.4 expected in that fixture and have struggled on the road against good defenses.
They created 0.7 expected goals at Liverpool, the closest comparison to City’s defense, and one expected goal at Everton, who sit fourth in non-penalty expected goals per 90, per fbref.com.
At the same time, they’ve held Liverpool, Newcastle and Aston Villa to 2.6 expected goals in three road fixtures.
Accordingly, expect them to limit City’s offensive flow even with Kevin De Bruyne available for the Cityzens.
Man City Form
March 16 vs. Newcastle United: 2-0, W (FA Cup)
March 10 at Liverpool: 1-1, D
March 6 vs. FC Copenhagen: 3-1, W (Champions League)
March 3 vs. Manchester United: 3-1, W
Feb. 27 at Luton Town: 6-2, W (FA Cup)
Arsenal Form
March 12 vs. FC Porto: 1-0, W (Champions League)
March 9 vs. Brentford: 2-1, W
March 4 at Sheffield United: 6-0, W
Feb. 24 vs. Newcastle United: 4-1, W
Feb. 21 at FC Porto: 1-0, L
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Nottingham Forest | Chelsea | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Southampton | Arsenal | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Liverpool | Crystal Palace | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Anfield |
| Ipswich Town | West Ham | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Bournemouth | Leicester City | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Man United | Aston Villa | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Newcastle | Everton | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Tottenham | Brighton | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Wolves | Brentford | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Molineux |
| Fulham | Manchester City | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-8-4 | 83 | 45 |
| Arsenal | 19-14-4 | 71 | 34 |
| Manchester City | 20-8-9 | 68 | 26 |
| Newcastle United | 20-6-11 | 66 | 22 |
| Chelsea | 19-9-9 | 66 | 20 |
| Aston Villa | 19-9-9 | 66 | 9 |
| Nottingham Forest | 19-8-10 | 65 | 13 |
| Brighton | 15-14-8 | 58 | 4 |
| Brentford | 16-7-14 | 55 | 9 |
| Fulham | 15-9-13 | 54 | 2 |
| Bournemouth | 14-11-12 | 53 | 9 |
| Crystal Palace | 13-13-11 | 52 | 0 |
| Everton | 10-15-12 | 45 | -3 |
| Wolves | 12-5-20 | 41 | -15 |
| West Ham | 10-10-17 | 40 | -18 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-18 | 39 | -12 |
| Tottenham | 11-5-21 | 38 | 2 |
| Leicester City | 6-7-24 | 25 | -45 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-10-23 | 22 | -44 |
| Southampton | 2-6-29 | 12 | -59 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 14-17-6 | 45.9% | 5-10-4 | 36.8% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Aston Villa | 18-18-1 | 50.0% | 9-9-1 | 50.0% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 19-16-2 | 54.1% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 11-6-2 | 63.2% |
| Brentford | 22-12-3 | 63.5% | 11-8-0 | 57.9% | 11-4-3 | 69.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 21-15-1 | 58.1% | 10-9-0 | 52.6% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
| Chelsea | 13-20-4 | 40.5% | 7-9-3 | 44.7% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% |
| Crystal Palace | 20-13-4 | 59.5% | 8-7-4 | 52.6% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Everton | 19-12-6 | 59.5% | 9-8-2 | 52.6% | 10-4-4 | 66.7% |
| Fulham | 18-14-4 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 10-5-4 | 63.2% |
| Ipswich Town | 14-20-3 | 41.9% | 4-13-1 | 25.0% | 10-7-2 | 57.9% |
| Leicester City | 18-18-1 | 50.0% | 8-11-0 | 42.1% | 10-7-1 | 58.3% |
| Liverpool | 16-19-2 | 45.9% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 9-10-0 | 47.4% |
| Manchester City | 13-24-0 | 35.1% | 7-12-0 | 36.8% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-18-5 | 44.6% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 7-9-3 | 44.7% |
| Newcastle United | 21-15-1 | 58.1% | 13-5-0 | 72.2% | 8-10-1 | 44.7% |
| Nottingham Forest | 23-14-0 | 62.2% | 10-8-0 | 55.6% | 13-6-0 | 68.4% |
| Southampton | 13-20-4 | 40.5% | 4-12-2 | 27.8% | 9-8-2 | 52.6% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 13-23-1 | 36.5% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 7-12-0 | 36.8% |
| West Ham United | 18-17-2 | 51.4% | 6-12-1 | 34.2% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 19-15-3 | 55.4% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 11-7-1 | 60.5% |
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