Man City vs. Arsenal Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Manchester City's Erling Haaland celebrates after scoring his side's third goal during an English Premier League soccer match between Manchester City and Manchester United at the Etihad Stadium in Manchester, England, Sunday, March 3, 2024.
(Dave Thompson/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Mar 28, 2024, 3:24 PM
  • Man City is a -0.5-goal favorite against Arsenal.
  • Arsenal earned a 1-0 win in the previous head-to-head meeting.
  • Apply these betting systems to construct a Same Game Parlay.

It’s a Premier League fixture that could decide the 2023-24 title race. Below, bettors can find my Man City vs. Arsenal prediction. 

Hosts City sit one point behind Arsenal in the current Premier League table and lost 1-0 at the Emirates. However, they enter Sunday’s fixture on a 13-match unbeaten run in league play. 

Arsenal have produced a similar run of form. Manager Mikel Arteta’s side has captured eight straight wins in the league to sit atop the table. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for this marquee fixture. 

EPL Betting Odds – Man City vs. Arsenal

  • Man City Moneyline: -120
  • Arsenal Moneyline: +310
  • Draw Moneyline: +275
  • Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-145/+105)

EPL Prediction – Man City vs. Arsenal

Same Game Parlay: Man City Double Chance & Under 3.5 Goals (-125)

I’ll be shocked if Manchester City lose this game outright, but I want to protect against a draw. 

This season, City has yet to drop all three points at home and has won 10 of 14 matches. 

Plus, under Pep Guardiola, City is 52-9 straight up following a non-win and 56-5 against +0.5 in those matches. 

Plus, bettors have seen home favorites that lost the previous head-to-head do very well recently. 

Since 2017-18, such teams – assuming their win percentage is higher than 55% – are 24-7 straight up in games 20-38, including 3-3 this season. 

Manchester City has also proved quite good whenever they’re a short home favorite. 

Since 2017-18, City is 10-3 SU when their moneyline is between -110 and -200. 

As for the total, bettors should expect a low-scoring match. 

These sides combined for only 0.9 expected goals when they met at the Emirates, and City operated without key defensive ballstopper Rodri. 

Arsenal managed a goal off only 0.4 expected in that fixture and have struggled on the road against good defenses. 

They created 0.7 expected goals at Liverpool, the closest comparison to City’s defense, and one expected goal at Everton, who sit fourth in non-penalty expected goals per 90, per fbref.com. 

At the same time, they’ve held Liverpool, Newcastle and Aston Villa to 2.6 expected goals in three road fixtures. 

Accordingly, expect them to limit City’s offensive flow even with Kevin De Bruyne available for the Cityzens. 

Man City Form 

March 16 vs. Newcastle United: 2-0, W (FA Cup)

March 10 at Liverpool: 1-1, D

March 6 vs. FC Copenhagen: 3-1, W (Champions League)

March 3 vs. Manchester United: 3-1, W

Feb. 27 at Luton Town: 6-2, W (FA Cup)

Arsenal Form

March 12 vs. FC Porto: 1-0, W (Champions League) 

March 9 vs. Brentford: 2-1, W

March 4 at Sheffield United: 6-0, W

Feb. 24 vs. Newcastle United: 4-1, W

Feb. 21 at FC Porto: 1-0, L

EPL Match Schedule This Weekend

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
Newcastle UnitedTottenhamApr. 137:30 AMSt. James' Park
BrentfordSheffield UnitedApr. 1310:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
BurnleyBrightonApr. 1310:00 AMTurf Moor
Man CityLuton TownApr. 1310:00 AMEtihad Stadium
Nottingham ForestWolvesApr. 1310:00 AMThe City Ground
BournemouthManchester UnitedApr. 1312:30 PMVitality Stadium
LiverpoolCrystal PalaceApr. 149:00 AMAnfield
West Ham UnitedFulhamApr. 149:00 AMLondon Stadium
ArsenalAston VillaApr. 1411:30 PMEmirates Stadium
ChelseaEvertonApr. 153:00 PMStamford Bridge

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Arsenal FC22-5-47151---
Liverpool FC21-8-27142---
Manchester City21-7-37040---
Tottenham Hotspur18-6-76020---
Aston Villa FC18-6-86017---
Manchester United15-4-1249-1---
West Ham United13-9-1048-4---
Newcastle United14-5-124713---
Chelsea FC12-8-10443---
Brighton & Hove Albion11-10-10432---
Wolves12-6-1342-5---
Bournemouth11-8-1241-10---
Fulham FC11-6-1539-4---
Crystal Palace7-9-1530-18---
Brentford7-8-1729-13---
Everton9-8-1427-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest7-8-1725-164 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-7-1925-20---
Burnley FC4-7-2119-35---
Sheffield United3-7-2116-52---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Arsenal18-13.5818-7.53310-6.625
Aston Villa16-15-1.51610-6.6256-9-1.406
Bournemouth18-12-2.5949-6-2.5889-6.600
Brentford12-19-2.3946-10-1.3826-9-1.406
Brighton & Hove Albion15-16-1.4848-7.5337-9-1.441
Burnley13-19-1.4094-12-1.2659-7.563
Chelsea14-16.4679-6.6005-10.333
Crystal Palace15-17.4696-9.4009-8.529
Everton14-17.4527-8.4677-9.438
Fulham17-15-1.53010-5-1.6567-10.412
Liverpool16-16.5009-8.5297-8.467
Luton Town21-11-1.65212-4.7509-7-1.559
Manchester City14-18.4387-10.4127-8.467
Manchester United12-19-1.3916-9.4006-10-1.382
Newcastle United16-16.50011-6.6475-10.333
Nottingham Forest14-17-2.4555-11-1.3249-6-1.594
Sheffield United18-14.5639-7.5639-7.563
Tottenham Hotspur18-14.5639-7.5639-7.563
West Ham United17-16.51510-7.5887-9.438
Wolverhampton Wanderers16-15-1.5168-7.5339-7-1.559

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.