Man City vs. Arsenal Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

Manchester City's Erling Haaland celebrates after scoring his side's third goal during an English Premier League soccer match between Manchester City and Manchester United at the Etihad Stadium in Manchester, England, Sunday, March 3, 2024.
(Dave Thompson/AP Photo)
  • Man City is a -0.5-goal favorite against Arsenal.
  • Arsenal earned a 1-0 win in the previous head-to-head meeting.
  • Apply these betting systems to construct a Same Game Parlay.

Itโ€™s a Premier League fixture that could decide the 2023-24 title race. Below, bettors can find my Man City vs. Arsenal prediction.ย 

Hosts City sit one point behind Arsenal in the current Premier League table and lost 1-0 at the Emirates. However, they enter Sundayโ€™s fixture on a 13-match unbeaten run in league play.ย 

Arsenal have produced a similar run of form. Manager Mikel Artetaโ€™s side has captured eight straight wins in the league to sit atop the table.ย 

Hereโ€™s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for this marquee fixture.ย 

EPL Betting Odds – Man City vs. Arsenal

  • Man City Moneyline: -120
  • Arsenal Moneyline: +310
  • Draw Moneyline: +275
  • Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-145/+105)

EPL Prediction – Man City vs. Arsenal

Same Game Parlay: Man City Double Chance & Under 3.5 Goals (-125)

Iโ€™ll be shocked if Manchester City lose this game outright, but I want to protect against a draw.ย 

This season, City has yet to drop all three points at home and has won 10 of 14 matches.ย 

Plus, under Pep Guardiola, City is 52-9 straight up following a non-win and 56-5 against +0.5 in those matches.ย 

Plus, bettors have seen home favorites that lost the previous head-to-head do very well recently.ย 

Since 2017-18, such teams โ€“ assuming their win percentage is higher than 55% โ€“ are 24-7 straight up in games 20-38, including 3-3 this season.ย 

Manchester City has also proved quite good whenever theyโ€™re a short home favorite.ย 

Since 2017-18, City is 10-3 SU when their moneyline is between -110 and -200.ย 

As for the total, bettors should expect a low-scoring match.ย 

These sides combined for only 0.9 expected goals when they met at the Emirates, and City operated without key defensive ballstopper Rodri.ย 

Arsenal managed a goal off only 0.4 expected in that fixture and have struggled on the road against good defenses.ย 

They created 0.7 expected goals at Liverpool, the closest comparison to Cityโ€™s defense, and one expected goal at Everton, who sit fourth in non-penalty expected goals per 90, per fbref.com.ย 

At the same time, theyโ€™ve held Liverpool, Newcastle and Aston Villa to 2.6 expected goals in three road fixtures.ย 

Accordingly, expect them to limit Cityโ€™s offensive flow even with Kevin De Bruyne available for the Cityzens.ย 

Man City Formย 

March 16 vs. Newcastle United: 2-0, W (FA Cup)

March 10 at Liverpool: 1-1, D

March 6 vs. FC Copenhagen: 3-1, W (Champions League)

March 3 vs. Manchester United: 3-1, W

Feb. 27 at Luton Town: 6-2, W (FA Cup)

Arsenal Form

March 12 vs. FC Porto: 1-0, W (Champions League)ย 

March 9 vs. Brentford: 2-1, W

March 4 at Sheffield United: 6-0, W

Feb. 24 vs. Newcastle United: 4-1, W

Feb. 21 at FC Porto: 1-0, L

EPL Match Schedule This Weekend

First Bet Offer $1,500 FBO
HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
BrightonChelseaFeb. 143 p.m.Amex Stadium
Leicester CityArsenalFeb. 157:30 a.m.King Power Stadium
Aston VillaIpswich TownFeb. 1510 a.m.Villa Park
FulhamNottingham ForestFeb. 1510 a.m.Craven Cottage
Man CityNewcastle UnitedFeb. 1510 a.m.Etihad Stadium
SouthamptonBournemouthFeb. 1510 a.m.St. Mary's Stadium
West Ham UnitedBrentfordFeb. 1510 a.m.London Stadium
Crystal PalaceEvertonFeb. 1512:30 p.m.Selhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesFeb. 169 a.m.Anfield
TottenhamManchester UnitedFeb. 1611:30 a.m.Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal Differential
Liverpool17-5-15635
Arsenal14-8-25027
Nottingham Forest14-5-54713
Chelsea12-7-54316
Manchester City12-5-74113
Newcastle United12-5-74113
Bournemouth11-7-64013
Aston Villa10-7-737-3
Fulham9-9-6364
Brighton8-10-634-3
Brentford9-4-11310
Crystal Palace7-9-830-2
Manchester United8-5-1129-6
Tottenham8-3-132711
West Ham United7-6-1127-17
Everton6-8-926-5
Wolves5-4-1519-18
Leicester City3-5-1517-28
Ipswich Town3-7-1416-27
Southampton2-3-199-36

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS%Home ATS RecordHome ATS%Road ATS RecordRoad ATS%
Arsenal9-10-547.9%3-6-337.5%6-4-258.3%
Aston Villa8-15-135.4%3-8-129.2%5-7-041.7%
Bournemouth16-8-066.7%7-5-058.3%9-3-075.0%
Brentford14-8-262.5%8-5-061.5%6-3-263.6%
Brighton & Hove Albion12-11-152.1%4-7-036.4%8-4-165.4%
Chelsea9-13-241.7%4-7-137.5%5-6-145.8%
Crystal Palace13-8-360.4%4-5-345.8%9-3-075.0%
Everton12-9-256.5%6-5-154.2%6-4-159.1%
Fulham14-8-262.5%5-7-041.7%8-2-275.0%
Ipswich Town10-13-143.8%4-9-030.8%6-4-159.1%
Leicester City11-12-147.9%5-7-041.7%6-5-154.2%
Liverpool13-9-158.7%5-5-150.0%8-4-066.7%
Manchester City7-17-029.2%3-8-027.3%4-9-030.8%
Manchester United10-12-245.8%5-7-142.3%5-5-150.0%
Newcastle United13-10-156.3%7-5-058.3%6-5-154.2%
Nottingham Forest16-8-066.7%7-5-058.3%9-3-075.0%
Southampton9-12-343.8%2-8-122.7%7-4-261.5%
Tottenham Hotspur9-15-037.5%4-8-033.3%5-7-041.7%
West Ham United12-11-152.1%4-7-137.5%8-4-066.7%
Wolverhampton Wanderers10-12-245.8%5-6-145.8%5-6-145.8%

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.