- Man City is predicted to be a -0.5-goal favorite against Arsenal.
- Arsenal earned four points from six against City last season.
- I predict this match will stay under the pregame total.
The two presumed EPL title challengers meet Sunday in Manchester as title holders Man City host Arsenal.
Both teams are unbeaten to start the year and earned wins on Matchday 4. City fell behind 1-0 to Brentford but used two Erling Haaland goals to win 2-1.
As for Arsenal, a late goal gave them a 1-0 win over crosstown rivals Tottenham.
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my Man City vs. Arsenal prediction.
Man City vs. Arsenal Odds, Premier League
- Man City Moneyline: -130
- Arsenal Moneyline: +360
- Draw Moneyline: +270
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-120/-115)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-130), No (-110)
Man City vs. Arsenal Prediction: Total Goals
My prediction for Man City vs. Arsenal is the pregame total Under 2.5 Goals (-115).
I worry about Arsenal’s offensive viability in this match without attacking midfielder Martin Odegaard.
At Tottenham, Arsenal managed only 0.75 expected goals, including 0.37 from open play.
For context, that came against a team that ranked 14th in expected goals against the previous campaign.
Now they have to travel to face City, a team that ranked second in that category last season.
Even more concerning for Arsenal? They face a Thursday Champions League game in Italy, while City play on Wednesday at home.
Last season, Arsenal played two matches against City and created only 1.05 expected goals across both legs.
Just at City: 0.66 expected goals, 0.25 post-shot expected goals.
But this was simultaneously an Arsenal defense that held up well against a prolific attack.
City didn’t have Kevin De Bruyne for the first meeting, so a 0.48 xG output isn’t entirely surprising.
What is surprising is that City created only 1.02 xG at home in the second head-to-head meeting.
Based on the scheduling spot and the lack of offensive creativity, I expect Mikel Arteta to sit back, cede possession to City and hold strong defensively.
Accordingly, expect a low-scoring contest on Sunday, with both teams playing a midweek contest.
Man City Record, Last 5 Matches
- Sept. 18 vs. Inter Milan: 0-0, D (Champions League)
- Sept. 14 vs. Brentford: 2-1, W
- Aug. 31 at West Ham United: 3-1, W
- Aug. 24 vs. Ipswich Town: 4-1, W
- Aug. 18 vs. Chelsea: 1-0, W
Arsenal Record, Last 5 Matches
- Sept. 19 vs. Atalanta
- Sept. 15 at Tottenham: 1-0, W
- Aug. 31 vs. Brighton: 1-1, D
- Aug. 24 at Aston Villa: 2-0, W
- Aug. 17 vs. Wolves: 2-0, W
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Manchester City odds and Arsenal odds!
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Brighton | Chelsea | Feb. 14 | 3 p.m. | Amex Stadium |
| Leicester City | Arsenal | Feb. 15 | 7:30 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Aston Villa | Ipswich Town | Feb. 15 | 10 a.m. | Villa Park |
| Fulham | Nottingham Forest | Feb. 15 | 10 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Man City | Newcastle United | Feb. 15 | 10 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Southampton | Bournemouth | Feb. 15 | 10 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| West Ham United | Brentford | Feb. 15 | 10 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Everton | Feb. 15 | 12:30 p.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Liverpool | Wolves | Feb. 16 | 9 a.m. | Anfield |
| Tottenham | Manchester United | Feb. 16 | 11:30 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 17-5-1 | 56 | 35 |
| Arsenal | 14-8-2 | 50 | 27 |
| Nottingham Forest | 14-5-5 | 47 | 13 |
| Chelsea | 12-7-5 | 43 | 16 |
| Manchester City | 12-5-7 | 41 | 13 |
| Newcastle United | 12-5-7 | 41 | 13 |
| Bournemouth | 11-7-6 | 40 | 13 |
| Aston Villa | 10-7-7 | 37 | -3 |
| Fulham | 9-9-6 | 36 | 4 |
| Brighton | 8-10-6 | 34 | -3 |
| Brentford | 9-4-11 | 31 | 0 |
| Crystal Palace | 7-9-8 | 30 | -2 |
| Manchester United | 8-5-11 | 29 | -6 |
| Tottenham | 8-3-13 | 27 | 11 |
| West Ham United | 7-6-11 | 27 | -17 |
| Everton | 6-8-9 | 26 | -5 |
| Wolves | 5-4-15 | 19 | -18 |
| Leicester City | 3-5-15 | 17 | -28 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-7-14 | 16 | -27 |
| Southampton | 2-3-19 | 9 | -36 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 9-10-5 | 47.9% | 3-6-3 | 37.5% | 6-4-2 | 58.3% |
| Aston Villa | 8-15-1 | 35.4% | 3-8-1 | 29.2% | 5-7-0 | 41.7% |
| Bournemouth | 16-8-0 | 66.7% | 7-5-0 | 58.3% | 9-3-0 | 75.0% |
| Brentford | 14-8-2 | 62.5% | 8-5-0 | 61.5% | 6-3-2 | 63.6% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 12-11-1 | 52.1% | 4-7-0 | 36.4% | 8-4-1 | 65.4% |
| Chelsea | 9-13-2 | 41.7% | 4-7-1 | 37.5% | 5-6-1 | 45.8% |
| Crystal Palace | 13-8-3 | 60.4% | 4-5-3 | 45.8% | 9-3-0 | 75.0% |
| Everton | 12-9-2 | 56.5% | 6-5-1 | 54.2% | 6-4-1 | 59.1% |
| Fulham | 14-8-2 | 62.5% | 5-7-0 | 41.7% | 8-2-2 | 75.0% |
| Ipswich Town | 10-13-1 | 43.8% | 4-9-0 | 30.8% | 6-4-1 | 59.1% |
| Leicester City | 11-12-1 | 47.9% | 5-7-0 | 41.7% | 6-5-1 | 54.2% |
| Liverpool | 13-9-1 | 58.7% | 5-5-1 | 50.0% | 8-4-0 | 66.7% |
| Manchester City | 7-17-0 | 29.2% | 3-8-0 | 27.3% | 4-9-0 | 30.8% |
| Manchester United | 10-12-2 | 45.8% | 5-7-1 | 42.3% | 5-5-1 | 50.0% |
| Newcastle United | 13-10-1 | 56.3% | 7-5-0 | 58.3% | 6-5-1 | 54.2% |
| Nottingham Forest | 16-8-0 | 66.7% | 7-5-0 | 58.3% | 9-3-0 | 75.0% |
| Southampton | 9-12-3 | 43.8% | 2-8-1 | 22.7% | 7-4-2 | 61.5% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 9-15-0 | 37.5% | 4-8-0 | 33.3% | 5-7-0 | 41.7% |
| West Ham United | 12-11-1 | 52.1% | 4-7-1 | 37.5% | 8-4-0 | 66.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 10-12-2 | 45.8% | 5-6-1 | 45.8% | 5-6-1 | 45.8% |
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