- Man City is a -1.5-goal favorite against Aston Villa.
- Aston Villa earned a 1-0 win in the last head-to-head meeting.
- Two systems say to bet on this side in Wednesdayโs match.
Looking to recover from their weekend draw against Arsenal, Man City will welcome Aston Villa to the Etihad Stadium on Wednesday.ย
The hosts’ streak of scoring a goal at home ended at 57 on Sunday. Against title challengers Arsenal, they had to settle for a 0-0 draw.ย
As for Aston Villa, they captured a 2-0 home win over a shorthanded Wolves side thanks to goals from Ezri Konsa and Moussa Diaby.ย
Hereโs a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Wednesdayโs match.ย
EPL Betting Odds – Man City vs. Aston Villa
- Man City Moneyline: -350
- Aston Villa Moneyline: +850
- Draw Moneyline: +525
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-110/-130)
EPL Prediction – Man City vs. Aston Villa
Aston Villa Spread (+1.5, +100)
Since appointing Unai Emery as manager, Aston Villa have quietly proved a very difficult underdog for opponents.ย
In 23 qualifying games, Emeryโs side is 14-9 ATS as an underdog and 10-7 ATS as road underdogs.ย
Plus, although I question if the metrics look similar, itโs worth noting Villa bossed City in their last meeting.ย
Albeit against a City side without Kevin De Bruyne and Rodri, Villa earned a 1-0 victory while winning the expected goals battle 2.4 to 0.7, per fotmob.com.ย
Iโll be shocked if that offensive output is replicated away from home, but itโs quite encouraging that Villa held a potent City offense under one expected goal.ย
De Bruyneโs presence should obviously impact their offensive outlay, but Iโm unsure if City can create margin in this match.ย
Plus, Aston Villa matches two historically profitable betting systems.ย
Since the 2017-18 season, road underdogs sitting between 0 and +1.5 are 27-11-2 ATS, assuming the following conditions are met:
- The opponentโs previous game margin is between -4 and 0
- The teamโs previous game margin is between +2 and +5
- The previous head-to-head result is between +1 and +5
Additionally, road underdogs that earned at least a point in the previous head-to-head meeting that close between +650 and +1400 are 31-16-2 ATS since the 2020-21 season.ย
Just this season, those teams are 8-3-1 ATS.ย
Finally, City have played 11 league games this season against sides with an expected goal differential per 90 between +0.5 and 0 this season.ย
In those games, theyโve covered this number only three times. Take the plus money on Villa and back them to cover.ย
Man City Formย
March 31 vs. Arsenal: 0-0, D
March 16 vs. Newcastle United: 2-0, W (FA Cup)
March 10 at Liverpool: 1-1, D
March 6 vs. FC Copenhagen: 3-1, W
March 3 vs. Manchester United: 3-1, W
Aston Villa Form
March 30 vs. Wolves: 2-0, W
March 17 at West Ham: 1-1, D
March 14 vs. Ajax: 5-0, W (Europa Conference League)
March 10 vs. Tottenham: 0-4, L
March 7 at Ajax: 0-0, D
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
Southampton | Manchester United | Sep. 14 | 7:30 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
Brighton & Hove Albion | Ipswich Town | Sep. 14 | 10 a.m. | Amex Stadium |
Crystal Palace | Leicester City | Sep. 14 | 10 a.m. | Selhurst Park |
Fulham | West Ham United | Sep. 14 | 10 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
Liverpool | Nottingham Forest | Sep. 14 | 10 a.m. | Anfield |
Manchester City | Brentford | Sep. 14 | 10 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
Aston Villa | Everton | Sep. 14 | 12:30 p.m. | Villa Park |
Bournemouth | Chelsea | Sep. 14 | 3:30 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
Tottenham | Arsenal | Sep. 15 | 9 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
Wolves | Newcastle United | Sep. 15 | 11 a.m. | Molineux |
EPL Standings
Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
Liverpool | 3-0-0 | 9 | 7 |
Manchester City | 3-0-0 | 9 | 7 |
Arsenal | 2-1-0 | 7 | 4 |
Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-1-0 | 7 | 4 |
Newcastle United | 2-1-0 | 7 | 2 |
Brentford | 2-0-1 | 6 | 1 |
Aston Villa | 2-0-1 | 6 | 0 |
Bournemouth | 1-2-0 | 5 | 1 |
Tottenham Hotspur | 1-1-1 | 4 | 3 |
Nottingham Forest | 1-2-0 | 5 | 1 |
Chelsea | 1-1-1 | 4 | 2 |
Fulham | 1-1-1 | 4 | 0 |
West Ham United | 1-0-2 | 3 | -1 |
Manchester United | 1-0-2 | 3 | -3 |
Leicester City | 0-1-2 | 1 | -2 |
Crystal Palace | 0-1-2 | 1 | -3 |
Ipswich Town | 0-1-2 | 1 | -5 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-2 | 1 | -6 |
Southampton | 0-0-3 | 0 | -4 |
Everton | 0-0-3 | 0 | -8 |
EPL ATS Records
Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
Arsenal | 1-2-0 | .333 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 |
Aston Villa | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-1-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
Bournemouth | 3-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
Brentford | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 0-1-0 | .000 |
Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
Chelsea | 1-2-0 | .333 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 |
Crystal Palace | 1-2-0 | .333 | 0-1-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
Everton | 0-3-0 | .000 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 0-1-0 | .000 |
Fulham | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
Ipswich Town | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 0-1-0 | .000 |
Leicester City | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 0-1-0 | .000 |
Liverpool | 3-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
Manchester City | 3-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
Manchester United | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 0-1-0 | .000 |
Newcastle United | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 0-1-0 | .000 |
Nottingham Forest | 1-2-0 | .333 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 |
Southampton | 1-2-0 | .333 | 0-1-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
Tottenham Hotspur | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
West Ham United | 1-2-0 | .333 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-1-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
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