Manchester City vs. Brentford Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

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Brentford's Bryan Mbeumo runs into position during the English Premier League soccer match between Brentford and Crystal Palace, at the Gtech Community Stadium in London, Sunday, Aug. 18, 2024.
(AP Photo/Dave Shopland)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Sep 11, 2024, 12:55 PM
  • Manchester City is predicted to be a -2.5-goal favorite against Brentford.
  • City earned six points from six against Brentford last season.
  • I predict Brentford are worth a shot on the three-way moneyline.

On Saturday at the Etihad, Manchester City look to make it 12 points from 12 to start the season against Brentford.ย 

The Cityzens cruised 3-1 in their last match against West Ham thanks to an Erling Haaland hat trick. To start the year, theyโ€™ve won all three matches by multiple goals.ย 

Meanwhile, Brentford captured their second win in as many tries at home before the break. As home favorites to Southampton, the Bees cruised 3-1.ย 

Hereโ€™s a look at the Premier League odds and my prediction for Saturdayโ€™s match.ย 

Manchester City vs. Brentford Odds, Premier League

  • Manchester City Moneyline: -500
  • Brentford Moneyline: +1200
  • Draw Moneyline: +650
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-120/-115)
  • Both Teams to Score: Yes (-120), No (-115)

Manchester City vs. Brentford Prediction: Moneyline

My prediction for this match is Brentford Moneyline (+1200). However, Brentfordโ€™s lineup will determine if this bet gets made.ย 

I donโ€™t place much stock into last seasonโ€™s meetings thanks to key personnel absences for the Bees.ย 

Arguably their two most important players โ€” wingback Rico Henry and striker Bryan Mbeumo โ€” missed both meetings.ย 

Henry needs to play in this game to make this bet.ย 

When those two are in the lineup, Brentford earn results at a significantly higher rate.ย 

With Henry, Brentfordโ€™s win percentage jumps from 31.7% to 35.5%. They also earn points at a 67.1% clip compared to a 46.3% clip without him.ย 

Now Mbeumo. When he plays, Brentford has a 37.5% win percentage and earn points at a 65.4% clip.ย 

Without him? They drop to 3-1-12 (W-D-L).ย 

Two years ago, this team went to City and dominated the match.ย 

Brentford won 2-1 as +1900 underdogs, winning the post-shot expected goals battle 2.45 to 1.4 and the big chances battle 6-1!ย 

Brentford also fits the profile of a dog that wins outright in this spot.ย 

Since 2012, road dogs with between three and 15 days between games are 24% SU, assuming three factors:

  • The underdogโ€™s previous game margin is between +0 and +2
  • The favorite won the last meeting by one or two goals
  • The favoriteโ€™s previous game margin is between +1 and +5

Sample teams between +1000 and +2000, and theyโ€™re still 7-29 SU (19.4%). But the implied probability of Brentfordโ€™s moneyline is only 7.7%.ย 

Based on those outputs, Brentford are absolutely worth a flier to earn all three points.ย 

Manchester City Record, Last 5 Matches

  • Aug. 31 at West Ham United: 3-1, W
  • Aug. 24 vs. Ipswich Town: 4-1, W
  • Aug. 18 at Chelsea: 2-0, W
  • Aug. 10 vs. Manchester United: 1-1, D (City Win on PKโ€™s)
  • Aug. 3 vs. Chelsea: 4-2, W (Friendly)

Brentford Record, Last 5 Matches

  • Aug. 31 vs. Southampton: 3-1, W
  • Aug. 28 at Colchester: 1-0, W (EFL Cup)
  • Aug. 25 at Liverpool: 0-2, L
  • Aug. 18 vs. Crystal Palace: 2-1, W
  • Aug. 9 vs. Wolfsburg: 4-4, D (Friendly)

Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Manchester City odds and Brentford odds!

EPL Match Schedule This Weekend

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
Newcastle UnitedManchester CitySep. 287:30 a.m.St. James' Park
ArsenalLeicester CitySep. 2810 a.m.Emirates Stadium
BrentfordWest Ham UnitedSep. 2810 a.m.GTech Community Stadium
ChelseaBrighton & Hove AlbionSep. 2810 a.m.Stamford Bridge
EvertonCrystal PalaceSep. 2810 a.m.Goodison Park
Nottingham ForestFulhamSep. 2810 a.m.The City Ground
WolvesLiverpoolSep. 2812:30 p.m.Molineux
Ipswich TownAston VillaSep. 299 a.m.Portman Road
Manchester UnitedTottenhamSep. 2911:30 a.m.Old Trafford
BournemouthSouthamptonSep. 303 p.m. Vitality Stadium

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal Differential
Manchester City4-1-0138
Liverpool4-0-1129
Aston Villa4-0-1123
Arsenal3-2-0115
Chelsea3-1-1106
Newcastle United3-1-1101
Brighton & Hove Albion2-3-094
Nottingham Forest2-3-092
Fulham2-2-182
Tottenham Hotspur2-1-274
Manchester United2-1-270
Brentford2-0-36-2
Bournemouth1-2-25-3
West Ham United1-1-34-4
Leicester City0-3-23-2
Crystal Palace0-3-23-3
Ipswich Town0-3-23-5
Southampton0-1-41-7
Everton0-1-41-9
Wolverhampton Wanderers0-1-41-9

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Arsenal3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Aston Villa4-1-0.8002-1-0.6672-0-01.000
Bournemouth3-2-0.6001-1-0.5002-1-0.667
Brentford3-2-0.6002-0-01.0001-2-0.333
Brighton & Hove Albion3-2-0.6001-2-0.3332-0-01.000
Chelsea3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Crystal Palace2-3-0.4001-2-0.3331-1-0.500
Everton1-4-0.2000-2-0.0001-2-0.333
Fulham2-3-0.4002-1-0.6670-2-0.000
Ipswich Town3-2-0.6001-1-0.5002-1-0.667
Leicester City2-3-0.4001-2-0.3331-1-0.500
Liverpool4-1-0.8002-1-0.6672-0-01.000
Manchester City3-2-0.6001-2-0.3332-0-01.000
Manchester United2-3-0.4001-1-0.5001-2-0.333
Newcastle United2-3-0.4001-1-0.5001-2-0.333
Nottingham Forest3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Southampton1-4-0.2000-3-0.0001-1-0.500
Tottenham Hotspur2-3-0.4002-1-0.5000-2-0.000
West Ham United2-3-0.4000-3-0.0002-0-01.000
Wolverhampton Wanderers2-3-0.4000-2-0.0002-1-0.667
EPL Odds

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.