- Manchester City is predicted to be a -2.5-goal favorite against Brentford.
- City earned six points from six against Brentford last season.
- I predict Brentford are worth a shot on the three-way moneyline.
On Saturday at the Etihad, Manchester City look to make it 12 points from 12 to start the season against Brentford.ย
The Cityzens cruised 3-1 in their last match against West Ham thanks to an Erling Haaland hat trick. To start the year, theyโve won all three matches by multiple goals.ย
Meanwhile, Brentford captured their second win in as many tries at home before the break. As home favorites to Southampton, the Bees cruised 3-1.ย
Hereโs a look at the Premier League odds and my prediction for Saturdayโs match.ย
Manchester City vs. Brentford Odds, Premier League
- Manchester City Moneyline: -500
- Brentford Moneyline: +1200
- Draw Moneyline: +650
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-120/-115)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-120), No (-115)
Manchester City vs. Brentford Prediction: Moneyline
My prediction for this match is Brentford Moneyline (+1200). However, Brentfordโs lineup will determine if this bet gets made.ย
I donโt place much stock into last seasonโs meetings thanks to key personnel absences for the Bees.ย
Arguably their two most important players โ wingback Rico Henry and striker Bryan Mbeumo โ missed both meetings.ย
Henry needs to play in this game to make this bet.ย
When those two are in the lineup, Brentford earn results at a significantly higher rate.ย
With Henry, Brentfordโs win percentage jumps from 31.7% to 35.5%. They also earn points at a 67.1% clip compared to a 46.3% clip without him.ย
Now Mbeumo. When he plays, Brentford has a 37.5% win percentage and earn points at a 65.4% clip.ย
Without him? They drop to 3-1-12 (W-D-L).ย
Two years ago, this team went to City and dominated the match.ย
Brentford won 2-1 as +1900 underdogs, winning the post-shot expected goals battle 2.45 to 1.4 and the big chances battle 6-1!ย
Brentford also fits the profile of a dog that wins outright in this spot.ย
Since 2012, road dogs with between three and 15 days between games are 24% SU, assuming three factors:
- The underdogโs previous game margin is between +0 and +2
- The favorite won the last meeting by one or two goals
- The favoriteโs previous game margin is between +1 and +5
Sample teams between +1000 and +2000, and theyโre still 7-29 SU (19.4%). But the implied probability of Brentfordโs moneyline is only 7.7%.ย
Based on those outputs, Brentford are absolutely worth a flier to earn all three points.ย
Manchester City Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 31 at West Ham United: 3-1, W
- Aug. 24 vs. Ipswich Town: 4-1, W
- Aug. 18 at Chelsea: 2-0, W
- Aug. 10 vs. Manchester United: 1-1, D (City Win on PKโs)
- Aug. 3 vs. Chelsea: 4-2, W (Friendly)
Brentford Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 31 vs. Southampton: 3-1, W
- Aug. 28 at Colchester: 1-0, W (EFL Cup)
- Aug. 25 at Liverpool: 0-2, L
- Aug. 18 vs. Crystal Palace: 2-1, W
- Aug. 9 vs. Wolfsburg: 4-4, D (Friendly)
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Manchester City odds and Brentford odds!
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
Newcastle United | Manchester City | Sep. 28 | 7:30 a.m. | St. James' Park |
Arsenal | Leicester City | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
Brentford | West Ham United | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
Chelsea | Brighton & Hove Albion | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
Everton | Crystal Palace | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
Nottingham Forest | Fulham | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | The City Ground |
Wolves | Liverpool | Sep. 28 | 12:30 p.m. | Molineux |
Ipswich Town | Aston Villa | Sep. 29 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
Manchester United | Tottenham | Sep. 29 | 11:30 a.m. | Old Trafford |
Bournemouth | Southampton | Sep. 30 | 3 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
EPL Standings
Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
Manchester City | 4-1-0 | 13 | 8 |
Liverpool | 4-0-1 | 12 | 9 |
Aston Villa | 4-0-1 | 12 | 3 |
Arsenal | 3-2-0 | 11 | 5 |
Chelsea | 3-1-1 | 10 | 6 |
Newcastle United | 3-1-1 | 10 | 1 |
Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-3-0 | 9 | 4 |
Nottingham Forest | 2-3-0 | 9 | 2 |
Fulham | 2-2-1 | 8 | 2 |
Tottenham Hotspur | 2-1-2 | 7 | 4 |
Manchester United | 2-1-2 | 7 | 0 |
Brentford | 2-0-3 | 6 | -2 |
Bournemouth | 1-2-2 | 5 | -3 |
West Ham United | 1-1-3 | 4 | -4 |
Leicester City | 0-3-2 | 3 | -2 |
Crystal Palace | 0-3-2 | 3 | -3 |
Ipswich Town | 0-3-2 | 3 | -5 |
Southampton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -7 |
Everton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
EPL ATS Records
Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
Arsenal | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
Aston Villa | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
Bournemouth | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
Brentford | 3-2-0 | .600 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
Chelsea | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
Crystal Palace | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
Everton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
Fulham | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
Ipswich Town | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
Leicester City | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
Liverpool | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
Manchester City | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
Manchester United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
Newcastle United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
Nottingham Forest | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
Southampton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
Tottenham Hotspur | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .500 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
West Ham United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 2-1-0 | .667 |