- Man City is a -2.5-goal favorite against Luton Town.
- These sides met in the FA Cup with City earning a 6-2 win at Kenilworth Road.
- Can Luton buck bad underlying metrics to cover the spread?
Fresh off a midweek draw against Real Madrid, Manchester City return to the Etihad to face lowly Luton Town.
These sides have played twice this season – once in the league and once in the FA Cup. City earned a 2-1 win in their first meeting before thrashing Luton 6-2 in the Cup.
Most recently in the league, City captured a 4-2 win against Crystal Palace while Luton earned a 2-1 win over Bournemouth.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Saturday’s match.
EPL Betting Odds – Man City vs. Luton Town
- Man City Moneyline: -900
- Luton Town Moneyline: +2200
- Draw Moneyline: +950
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-150/+110)
EPL Prediction – Man City vs. Luton Town
LEAN Manchester City Spread (-2.5, -130) – Wait for Lineups
This is a tricky one to call – metrics say City, but history says Luton Town.
Only once this season have Luton Town faced a City team with both Erling Haaland and Kevin De Bruyne in the lineup.
That came in the FA Cup, which saw City score six goals off 15 shots on target and 5.41 post shot expected goals, per fotmob.com.
Although Luton Town scored twice, I attribute that to a lack of Rodri in the lineup for City and the fact Luton were 3-0 down after 40 minutes.
Plus, this is a Luton Town team ripe for negative regression away from home.
To date, Luton have a -17 road goal differential compared to a -23.1 expected goal differential, per fbref.com.
Most of that regression is expected on the offensive end – they’ve scored 21 road goals off only 15.2 expected.
It’s reasonable to expect that comes against City’s potent defense, but will manager Pep Guardiola opt to rotate players?
It’s possible, especially with a midweek Champions League fixture looming.
If that’s the case, it’s worth noting that Luton Town match a pair of historically profitable betting systems.
This season, manager Rob Edwards’ side is 21-8-1 ATS as an underdog, including 12-4 ATS at +1.5 or higher.
Additionally, history says it’s wise to back big road underdogs experiencing a bad run of form.
Since the 2021-22 season, road underdogs at +0.75 or higher that lost the previous meeting are 38-12-4 ATS, assuming their 10-game winning percentage is below 30%.
This season, those teams are 18-2-2 ATS, including 4-1 when Man City is the opponent.
It’s tough to buck those trends, but Luton’s underlying metrics are terrible. Just against Liverpool, they lost 4-1 while losing the expected goals battle 0.9 to 3.3.
In this instance, wait to see what the lineups look like before deciding whether to back either side.
Man City Form
April 9 at Real Madrid: 3-3, D (Champions League)
April 6 at Crystal Palace: 4-2, W
April 3 vs. Aston Villa: 4-1, W
March 31 vs. Arsenal: 0-0, D
March 16 vs. Newcastle United: 2-0, W (FA Cup)
Luton Town Form
April 6 vs. Bournemouth: 2-1, W
April 3 at Arsenal: 0-2, L
March 30 at Tottenham: 1-2, L
March 16 vs. Nottingham Forest: 1-1, D
March 13 at Bournemouth: 3-4, L
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Chelsea | Everton | Apr. 26 | 7:30 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Southampton | Fulham | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Brighton | West Ham United | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | Amex Stadium |
| Newcastle United | Ipswich Town | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Wolves | Leicester City | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | Molinneux |
| Bournemouth | Manchester United | Apr. 27 | 9 a.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Liverpool | Tottenham | Apr. 27 | 11:30 a.m. | Anfield |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 24-7-2 | 79 | 44 |
| Arsenal | 18-13-3 | 68 | 34 |
| Manchester City | 18-7-9 | 61 | 23 |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-6-9 | 60 | 14 |
| Newcastle United | 18-5-10 | 59 | 18 |
| Chelsea | 16-9-8 | 57 | 18 |
| Aston Villa | 16-9-9 | 57 | 5 |
| Bournemouth | 13-10-10 | 49 | 12 |
| Fulham | 13-9-11 | 48 | 3 |
| Brighton | 12-13-8 | 48 | 0 |
| Brentford | 13-7-13 | 46 | 6 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-12-11 | 45 | -4 |
| Everton | 8-14-11 | 38 | -6 |
| Manchester United | 10-8-15 | 38 | -8 |
| Wolves | 11-5-17 | 38 | -13 |
| Tottenham | 11-4-18 | 37 | 10 |
| West Ham | 9-9-15 | 36 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-9-20 | 21 | -38 |
| Leicester City | 4-6-23 | 18 | -46 |
| Southampton | 2-5-26 | 11 | -54 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 12-16-6 | 44.1% | 4-9-4 | 35.3% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% |
| Aston Villa | 15-18-1 | 45.6% | 7-9-1 | 44.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% |
| Bournemouth | 18-13-2 | 57.6% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 10-5-2 | 64.7% |
| Brentford | 20-11-2 | 63.6% | 10-7-0 | 58.8% | 10-4-2 | 68.8% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-15-1 | 53.0% | 7-9-0 | 43.8% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
| Chelsea | 12-19-2 | 39.4% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% |
| Crystal Palace | 18-12-4 | 58.8% | 7-6-4 | 52.9% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Everton | 17-11-5 | 59.1% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Fulham | 18-12-3 | 5.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Ipswich Town | 13-18-2 | 42.4% | 4-13-0 | 23.5% | 9-5-2 | 62.5% |
| Leicester City | 15-17-1 | 47.0% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
| Liverpool | 15-16-2 | 48.5% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% | 9-8-0 | 52.9% |
| Manchester City | 12-22-0 | 35.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% |
| Manchester United | 13-16-4 | 45.5% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% |
| Newcastle United | 19-13-1 | 59.1% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% | 8-8-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 21-12-0 | 63.6% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Southampton | 12-18-3 | 40.9% | 3-12-1 | 21.9% | 9-6-2 | 58.8% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 12-20-1 | 37.9% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 6-10-0 | 37.5% |
| West Ham United | 17-15-1 | 53.0% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 17-13-3 | 56.1% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
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