Man City vs. Luton Town Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Manchester City's Erling Haaland celebrates towards fans after the English Premier League soccer match between Manchester City and Brighton & Hove Albion at Etihad stadium in Manchester, England, Saturday, Oct. 21, 2023.
(Rui Vieira/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Apr 11, 2024, 3:46 PM
  • Man City is a -2.5-goal favorite against Luton Town.
  • These sides met in the FA Cup with City earning a 6-2 win at Kenilworth Road.
  • Can Luton buck bad underlying metrics to cover the spread?

Fresh off a midweek draw against Real Madrid, Manchester City return to the Etihad to face lowly Luton Town. 

These sides have played twice this season – once in the league and once in the FA Cup. City earned a 2-1 win in their first meeting before thrashing Luton 6-2 in the Cup. 

Most recently in the league, City captured a 4-2 win against Crystal Palace while Luton earned a 2-1 win over Bournemouth. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Saturday’s match. 

EPL Betting Odds – Man City vs. Luton Town

  • Man City Moneyline: -900
  • Luton Town Moneyline: +2200
  • Draw Moneyline: +950
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-150/+110)

EPL Prediction – Man City vs. Luton Town

LEAN Manchester City Spread (-2.5, -130) – Wait for Lineups

This is a tricky one to call – metrics say City, but history says Luton Town. 

Only once this season have Luton Town faced a City team with both Erling Haaland and Kevin De Bruyne in the lineup. 

That came in the FA Cup, which saw City score six goals off 15 shots on target and 5.41 post shot expected goals, per 

Although Luton Town scored twice, I attribute that to a lack of Rodri in the lineup for City and the fact Luton were 3-0 down after 40 minutes. 

Plus, this is a Luton Town team ripe for negative regression away from home. 

To date, Luton have a -17 road goal differential compared to a -23.1 expected goal differential, per 

Most of that regression is expected on the offensive end – they’ve scored 21 road goals off only 15.2 expected. 

It’s reasonable to expect that comes against City’s potent defense, but will manager Pep Guardiola opt to rotate players? 

It’s possible, especially with a midweek Champions League fixture looming. 

If that’s the case, it’s worth noting that Luton Town match a pair of historically profitable betting systems. 

This season, manager Rob Edwards’ side is 21-8-1 ATS as an underdog, including 12-4 ATS at +1.5 or higher. 

Additionally, history says it’s wise to back big road underdogs experiencing a bad run of form. 

Since the 2021-22 season, road underdogs at +0.75 or higher that lost the previous meeting are 38-12-4 ATS, assuming their 10-game winning percentage is below 30%. 

This season, those teams are 18-2-2 ATS, including 4-1 when Man City is the opponent. 

It’s tough to buck those trends, but Luton’s underlying metrics are terrible. Just against Liverpool, they lost 4-1 while losing the expected goals battle 0.9 to 3.3. 

In this instance, wait to see what the lineups look like before deciding whether to back either side. 

Man City Form 

April 9 at Real Madrid: 3-3, D (Champions League)

April 6 at Crystal Palace: 4-2, W

April 3 vs. Aston Villa: 4-1, W

March 31 vs. Arsenal: 0-0, D

March 16 vs. Newcastle United: 2-0, W (FA Cup) 

Luton Town Form

April 6 vs. Bournemouth: 2-1, W

April 3 at Arsenal: 0-2, L

March 30 at Tottenham: 1-2, L

March 16 vs. Nottingham Forest: 1-1, D

March 13 at Bournemouth: 3-4, L

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.