- Manchester United is predicted to be a +0.5-goal underdog against Liverpool.
- Liverpool has failed to win three straight at Old Trafford.
- I predict Liverpool earns all three points against United on Sunday.
It’s the marquee Premier League fixture for Matchday 3: Manchester United vs. Liverpool at Old Trafford.
These teams enter Sunday’s match off different results. United fell 2-1 to Brighton on Saturday, while Liverpool captured a 2-0 home win against Brentford.
Old Trafford hasn’t been kind to Liverpool recently. They’ve failed to win three straight in all competitions after capturing two straight wins in Manchester.
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my prediction for Sunday’s match.
Manchester United vs. Liverpool Odds, Premier League
- Manchester United Moneyline: +270
- Liverpool Moneyline: -120
- Draw Moneyline: +300
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+100/-135)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-250), No (+170)
Manchester United vs. Liverpool Prediction: Moneyline
My prediction for Sunday’s fixture is the Liverpool Moneyline (-120).
The last meeting ended 2-2, but it was clear as day Liverpool played better.
Expected goals finished 3.7 to 0.7 in the visitor’s favor. Remove Mo Salah’s penalty, and Liverpool still posted a +2.2 non-penalty xGDiff, per fotmob.com.
That marked the second straight draw in this series, with the first meeting last season finishing 0-0. However, Liverpool won the xG battle 2.4-0.75 and the psxG battle 1.44-0.1.
Timing should also be considered for those matches, with Liverpool playing both on short rest.
Arne Slot’s side also matches two historically profitable betting systems.
Since 2012, favorites priced between -250 and -103 in games 2-10 are 81% SU, assuming three factors:
- The opponent’s previous game margin is between -8 and -1
- The previous head-to-head result is between +0 and +4
- The previous game the opponent was the underdog
Even at -150 or shorter, teams are still 33-13 SU.
One more: favorites shorter than -230 in games 1-20 that closed a favorite in their last game are 68.1% SU, assuming two factors:
- The opponent’s previous game margin is between -4 and -1
- The previous head-to-head result was +0 or +1
When those teams are coming off a win, they’re 69.1% SU. Off a win against a team that was an underdog: 51-21 SU.
For those reasons, expect Liverpool to end their winless run at Old Trafford and to capture all three points.
Manchester United Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 24 at Brighton: 1-2, L
- Aug. 16 vs. Fulham: 1-0, W
- Aug. 10 vs. Man City: 1-1, D (City win on PK’s)
- Aug. 3 vs. Liverpool: 0-3, L (Friendly)
- July 31 vs. Real Betis: 3-2, W (Friendly)
Liverpool Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 25 vs. Brentford: 2-0, W
- Aug. 17 at Ipswich Town: 2-0, W
- Aug. 11 vs. Las Palmas: 0-0, D (Friendly)
- Aug. 11 vs. Sevilla: 4-1, W (Friendly)
- Aug. 3 vs. Manchester United: 3-0, W (Friendly)
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Manchester United odds and Liverpool odds!
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Newcastle United | Manchester City | Sep. 28 | 7:30 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Arsenal | Leicester City | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | West Ham United | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Chelsea | Brighton & Hove Albion | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Crystal Palace | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Fulham | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Wolves | Liverpool | Sep. 28 | 12:30 p.m. | Molineux |
| Ipswich Town | Aston Villa | Sep. 29 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Tottenham | Sep. 29 | 11:30 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Bournemouth | Southampton | Sep. 30 | 3 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Manchester City | 4-1-0 | 13 | 8 |
| Liverpool | 4-0-1 | 12 | 9 |
| Aston Villa | 4-0-1 | 12 | 3 |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | 11 | 5 |
| Chelsea | 3-1-1 | 10 | 6 |
| Newcastle United | 3-1-1 | 10 | 1 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-3-0 | 9 | 4 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2-3-0 | 9 | 2 |
| Fulham | 2-2-1 | 8 | 2 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-1-2 | 7 | 4 |
| Manchester United | 2-1-2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brentford | 2-0-3 | 6 | -2 |
| Bournemouth | 1-2-2 | 5 | -3 |
| West Ham United | 1-1-3 | 4 | -4 |
| Leicester City | 0-3-2 | 3 | -2 |
| Crystal Palace | 0-3-2 | 3 | -3 |
| Ipswich Town | 0-3-2 | 3 | -5 |
| Southampton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -7 |
| Everton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Aston Villa | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Bournemouth | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Brentford | 3-2-0 | .600 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Chelsea | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Crystal Palace | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Everton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Fulham | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Leicester City | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Liverpool | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester City | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Newcastle United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Southampton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .500 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| West Ham United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
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