- Manchester United is predicted to be a +0.5-goal underdog against Liverpool.
- Liverpool has failed to win three straight at Old Trafford.
- I predict Liverpool earns all three points against United on Sunday.
It’s the marquee Premier League fixture for Matchday 3: Manchester United vs. Liverpool at Old Trafford.
These teams enter Sunday’s match off different results. United fell 2-1 to Brighton on Saturday, while Liverpool captured a 2-0 home win against Brentford.
Old Trafford hasn’t been kind to Liverpool recently. They’ve failed to win three straight in all competitions after capturing two straight wins in Manchester.
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my prediction for Sunday’s match.
Manchester United vs. Liverpool Odds, Premier League
- Manchester United Moneyline: +270
- Liverpool Moneyline: -120
- Draw Moneyline: +300
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+100/-135)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-250), No (+170)
Manchester United vs. Liverpool Prediction: Moneyline
My prediction for Sunday’s fixture is the Liverpool Moneyline (-120).
The last meeting ended 2-2, but it was clear as day Liverpool played better.
Expected goals finished 3.7 to 0.7 in the visitor’s favor. Remove Mo Salah’s penalty, and Liverpool still posted a +2.2 non-penalty xGDiff, per fotmob.com.
That marked the second straight draw in this series, with the first meeting last season finishing 0-0. However, Liverpool won the xG battle 2.4-0.75 and the psxG battle 1.44-0.1.
Timing should also be considered for those matches, with Liverpool playing both on short rest.
Arne Slot’s side also matches two historically profitable betting systems.
Since 2012, favorites priced between -250 and -103 in games 2-10 are 81% SU, assuming three factors:
- The opponent’s previous game margin is between -8 and -1
- The previous head-to-head result is between +0 and +4
- The previous game the opponent was the underdog
Even at -150 or shorter, teams are still 33-13 SU.
One more: favorites shorter than -230 in games 1-20 that closed a favorite in their last game are 68.1% SU, assuming two factors:
- The opponent’s previous game margin is between -4 and -1
- The previous head-to-head result was +0 or +1
When those teams are coming off a win, they’re 69.1% SU. Off a win against a team that was an underdog: 51-21 SU.
For those reasons, expect Liverpool to end their winless run at Old Trafford and to capture all three points.
Manchester United Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 24 at Brighton: 1-2, L
- Aug. 16 vs. Fulham: 1-0, W
- Aug. 10 vs. Man City: 1-1, D (City win on PK’s)
- Aug. 3 vs. Liverpool: 0-3, L (Friendly)
- July 31 vs. Real Betis: 3-2, W (Friendly)
Liverpool Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 25 vs. Brentford: 2-0, W
- Aug. 17 at Ipswich Town: 2-0, W
- Aug. 11 vs. Las Palmas: 0-0, D (Friendly)
- Aug. 11 vs. Sevilla: 4-1, W (Friendly)
- Aug. 3 vs. Manchester United: 3-0, W (Friendly)
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Manchester United odds and Liverpool odds!
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Brighton | Chelsea | Feb. 14 | 3 p.m. | Amex Stadium |
| Leicester City | Arsenal | Feb. 15 | 7:30 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Aston Villa | Ipswich Town | Feb. 15 | 10 a.m. | Villa Park |
| Fulham | Nottingham Forest | Feb. 15 | 10 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Man City | Newcastle United | Feb. 15 | 10 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Southampton | Bournemouth | Feb. 15 | 10 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| West Ham United | Brentford | Feb. 15 | 10 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Everton | Feb. 15 | 12:30 p.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Liverpool | Wolves | Feb. 16 | 9 a.m. | Anfield |
| Tottenham | Manchester United | Feb. 16 | 11:30 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 17-5-1 | 56 | 35 |
| Arsenal | 14-8-2 | 50 | 27 |
| Nottingham Forest | 14-5-5 | 47 | 13 |
| Chelsea | 12-7-5 | 43 | 16 |
| Manchester City | 12-5-7 | 41 | 13 |
| Newcastle United | 12-5-7 | 41 | 13 |
| Bournemouth | 11-7-6 | 40 | 13 |
| Aston Villa | 10-7-7 | 37 | -3 |
| Fulham | 9-9-6 | 36 | 4 |
| Brighton | 8-10-6 | 34 | -3 |
| Brentford | 9-4-11 | 31 | 0 |
| Crystal Palace | 7-9-8 | 30 | -2 |
| Manchester United | 8-5-11 | 29 | -6 |
| Tottenham | 8-3-13 | 27 | 11 |
| West Ham United | 7-6-11 | 27 | -17 |
| Everton | 6-8-9 | 26 | -5 |
| Wolves | 5-4-15 | 19 | -18 |
| Leicester City | 3-5-15 | 17 | -28 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-7-14 | 16 | -27 |
| Southampton | 2-3-19 | 9 | -36 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 9-10-5 | 47.9% | 3-6-3 | 37.5% | 6-4-2 | 58.3% |
| Aston Villa | 8-15-1 | 35.4% | 3-8-1 | 29.2% | 5-7-0 | 41.7% |
| Bournemouth | 16-8-0 | 66.7% | 7-5-0 | 58.3% | 9-3-0 | 75.0% |
| Brentford | 14-8-2 | 62.5% | 8-5-0 | 61.5% | 6-3-2 | 63.6% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 12-11-1 | 52.1% | 4-7-0 | 36.4% | 8-4-1 | 65.4% |
| Chelsea | 9-13-2 | 41.7% | 4-7-1 | 37.5% | 5-6-1 | 45.8% |
| Crystal Palace | 13-8-3 | 60.4% | 4-5-3 | 45.8% | 9-3-0 | 75.0% |
| Everton | 12-9-2 | 56.5% | 6-5-1 | 54.2% | 6-4-1 | 59.1% |
| Fulham | 14-8-2 | 62.5% | 5-7-0 | 41.7% | 8-2-2 | 75.0% |
| Ipswich Town | 10-13-1 | 43.8% | 4-9-0 | 30.8% | 6-4-1 | 59.1% |
| Leicester City | 11-12-1 | 47.9% | 5-7-0 | 41.7% | 6-5-1 | 54.2% |
| Liverpool | 13-9-1 | 58.7% | 5-5-1 | 50.0% | 8-4-0 | 66.7% |
| Manchester City | 7-17-0 | 29.2% | 3-8-0 | 27.3% | 4-9-0 | 30.8% |
| Manchester United | 10-12-2 | 45.8% | 5-7-1 | 42.3% | 5-5-1 | 50.0% |
| Newcastle United | 13-10-1 | 56.3% | 7-5-0 | 58.3% | 6-5-1 | 54.2% |
| Nottingham Forest | 16-8-0 | 66.7% | 7-5-0 | 58.3% | 9-3-0 | 75.0% |
| Southampton | 9-12-3 | 43.8% | 2-8-1 | 22.7% | 7-4-2 | 61.5% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 9-15-0 | 37.5% | 4-8-0 | 33.3% | 5-7-0 | 41.7% |
| West Ham United | 12-11-1 | 52.1% | 4-7-1 | 37.5% | 8-4-0 | 66.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 10-12-2 | 45.8% | 5-6-1 | 45.8% | 5-6-1 | 45.8% |
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