- Manchester United is predicted to be a +0.5-goal underdog against Liverpool.
- Liverpool has failed to win three straight at Old Trafford.
- I predict Liverpool earns all three points against United on Sunday.
It’s the marquee Premier League fixture for Matchday 3: Manchester United vs. Liverpool at Old Trafford.
These teams enter Sunday’s match off different results. United fell 2-1 to Brighton on Saturday, while Liverpool captured a 2-0 home win against Brentford.
Old Trafford hasn’t been kind to Liverpool recently. They’ve failed to win three straight in all competitions after capturing two straight wins in Manchester.
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my prediction for Sunday’s match.
Manchester United vs. Liverpool Odds, Premier League
- Manchester United Moneyline: +270
- Liverpool Moneyline: -120
- Draw Moneyline: +300
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+100/-135)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-250), No (+170)
Manchester United vs. Liverpool Prediction: Moneyline
My prediction for Sunday’s fixture is the Liverpool Moneyline (-120).
The last meeting ended 2-2, but it was clear as day Liverpool played better.
Expected goals finished 3.7 to 0.7 in the visitor’s favor. Remove Mo Salah’s penalty, and Liverpool still posted a +2.2 non-penalty xGDiff, per fotmob.com.
That marked the second straight draw in this series, with the first meeting last season finishing 0-0. However, Liverpool won the xG battle 2.4-0.75 and the psxG battle 1.44-0.1.
Timing should also be considered for those matches, with Liverpool playing both on short rest.
Arne Slot’s side also matches two historically profitable betting systems.
Since 2012, favorites priced between -250 and -103 in games 2-10 are 81% SU, assuming three factors:
- The opponent’s previous game margin is between -8 and -1
- The previous head-to-head result is between +0 and +4
- The previous game the opponent was the underdog
Even at -150 or shorter, teams are still 33-13 SU.
One more: favorites shorter than -230 in games 1-20 that closed a favorite in their last game are 68.1% SU, assuming two factors:
- The opponent’s previous game margin is between -4 and -1
- The previous head-to-head result was +0 or +1
When those teams are coming off a win, they’re 69.1% SU. Off a win against a team that was an underdog: 51-21 SU.
For those reasons, expect Liverpool to end their winless run at Old Trafford and to capture all three points.
Manchester United Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 24 at Brighton: 1-2, L
- Aug. 16 vs. Fulham: 1-0, W
- Aug. 10 vs. Man City: 1-1, D (City win on PK’s)
- Aug. 3 vs. Liverpool: 0-3, L (Friendly)
- July 31 vs. Real Betis: 3-2, W (Friendly)
Liverpool Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 25 vs. Brentford: 2-0, W
- Aug. 17 at Ipswich Town: 2-0, W
- Aug. 11 vs. Las Palmas: 0-0, D (Friendly)
- Aug. 11 vs. Sevilla: 4-1, W (Friendly)
- Aug. 3 vs. Manchester United: 3-0, W (Friendly)
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Manchester United odds and Liverpool odds!
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Newcastle United | Crystal Palace | Apr. 16 | 2:30 p.m. | St. James' Park |
| Brentford | Brighton | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Bournemouth | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Everton | Manchester City | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| West Ham United | Southampton | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Aston Villa | Newcastle United | Apr. 19 | 12:30 p.m. | Villa Park |
| Fulham | Chelsea | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Ipswich Town | Arsenal | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Wolves | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Leicester City | Liverpool | Apr. 20 | 11:30 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Tottenham | Nottingham Forest | Apr. 21 | 3 p.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 23-7-2 | 76 | 43 |
| Arsenal | 17-12-3 | 63 | 30 |
| Nottingham Forest | 17-6-9 | 57 | 13 |
| Newcastle United | 17-5-9 | 56 | 16 |
| Manchester City | 16-7-9 | 55 | 20 |
| Chelsea | 15-9-8 | 54 | 17 |
| Aston Villa | 15-9-8 | 54 | 3 |
| Bournemouth | 13-9-10 | 48 | 12 |
| Fulham | 13-9-10 | 48 | 4 |
| Brighton | 12-13-7 | 48 | 2 |
| Brentford | 12-7-13 | 43 | 4 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-10-10 | 43 | 1 |
| Everton | 8-14-10 | 38 | -4 |
| Manchester United | 10-8-14 | 38 | -7 |
| Tottenham | 11-4-17 | 37 | 11 |
| Wolves | 10-5-17 | 35 | -14 |
| West Ham | 9-8-15 | 35 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-9-19 | 21 | -34 |
| Leicester City | 4-6-22 | 18 | -45 |
| Southampton | 2-4-26 | 10 | -54 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 11-15-6 | 43.8% | 4-8-4 | 37.5% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% |
| Aston Villa | 14-17-1 | 45.3% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 18-13-1 | 57.8% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 10-5-1 | 65.6% |
| Brentford | 19-11-2 | 62.5% | 9-7-0 | 56.3% | 10-4-2 | 68.8% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-14-1 | 54.7% | 7-9-0 | 43.8% | 10-5-1 | 65.6% |
| Chelsea | 11-19-2 | 37.5% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 5-10-1 | 34.4% |
| Crystal Palace | 17-11-3 | 59.7% | 7-6-3 | 53.1% | 10-5-0 | 66.7% |
| Everton | 17-10-5 | 60.9% | 8-6-2 | 56.3% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Fulham | 18-11-3 | 60.9% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Ipswich Town | 13-17-2 | 43.8% | 4-12-0 | 25.0% | 9-5-2 | 62.5% |
| Leicester City | 14-17-1 | 45.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
| Liverpool | 15-15-2 | 50.0% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% | 9-7-0 | 56.3% |
| Manchester City | 10-22-0 | 31.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% |
| Manchester United | 13-15-4 | 46.9% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% |
| Newcastle United | 18-12-1 | 59.7% | 10-5-0 | 66.7% | 8-7-1 | 53.1% |
| Nottingham Forest | 20-12-0 | 62.5% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% |
| Southampton | 11-18-3 | 39.1% | 3-12-1 | 21.9% | 8-6-2 | 56.3% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 12-19-1 | 39.1% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 6-10-0 | 37.5% |
| West Ham United | 17-14-1 | 54.7% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 16-13-3 | 54.7% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
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