- Newcastle United is predicted to be a -0.5-goal favorite against Tottenham.
- The home team has won four of the last five in this series.
- I predict this match will clear the pregame total.
Two teams with European ambitions meet Sunday at St. James’ Park, with Newcastle United hosting Tottenham.
Both teams have produced positive starts to the season. Most recently, Newcastle drew 1-1 with Bournemouth, while Spurs captured a 4-0 win over Everton.
In this head-to-head series, recent results have favored goals and the home team. Seven straight games have cleared 2.5 goals, with the home team winning three straight.
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my prediction for Sunday’s match.
Newcastle United vs. Tottenham Odds, Premier League
- Newcastle United Moneyline: +140
- Tottenham Moneyline: +155
- Draw Moneyline: +300
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-120/-120)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-300), No (+195)
Newcastle United vs. Tottenham Prediction: Total Goals
I predict Newcastle United vs. Tottenham will finish over 3.5 goals (-120).
I don’t know how this game is anything but pure chaos.
Each of the last five meetings have featured at least three goals, with four of five clearing 3.5 goals.
Across both meetings last season, Newcastle and Tottenham combined for 9.15 expected goals, per fotmob.com, with each game clearing 3.5 expected goals.
Newcastle specifically experienced loads of success against the Spurs defense. Manager Eddie Howe’s side accounted for 2.29 xG per 90 minutes across both meetings.
The problem? Their defense is ripe for the taking right now.
At Bournemouth, Newcastle surrendered 2.3 expected goals. Top defender Fabian Schar also remains out through suspension, while Sven Botman and Jamaal Lascelles are injured.
That leaves Eddie Howe with minimal choices in defense against a powerful Tottenham attack. Additionally, the Magpies have to play on short rest following a road Cup match on Wednesday.
Tottenham, on the other hand, has eight days between games with no midweek match.
This game also matches a historically profitable betting system.
Over the last three seasons, games with totals at 3.5 are 38-26 (59.4%) to the over, assuming two factors:
- The visitor’s previous game O/U margin is between +0 and +7
- The visitor’s previous game margin is between +0 and +4
Pair that with a history of high-scoring games between these teams, and I’ll back the over on Sunday.
Newcastle United Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 25 at Bournemouth: 1-1, D
- Aug. 17 vs. Southampton: 1-0, W
- Aug. 10 vs. Brest: 1-0, W (Friendly)
- Aug. 9 vs. Girona: 4-0, W (Friendly)
- Aug. 3 at Yokohama Marinos: 0-2, L (Friendly)
Tottenham Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 24 vs. Everton: 4-0, W
- Aug. 19 at Leicester City: 1-1, D
- Aug. 10 vs. Bayern Munich: 2-3, L (Friendly)
- Aug. 3 at Bayern Munich: 1-2, L (Friendly)
- July 31 at K-League All Stars: 4-3, W (Friendly)
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Newcastle United odds and Tottenham odds!
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Newcastle United | Manchester City | Sep. 28 | 7:30 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Arsenal | Leicester City | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | West Ham United | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Chelsea | Brighton & Hove Albion | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Crystal Palace | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Fulham | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Wolves | Liverpool | Sep. 28 | 12:30 p.m. | Molineux |
| Ipswich Town | Aston Villa | Sep. 29 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Tottenham | Sep. 29 | 11:30 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Bournemouth | Southampton | Sep. 30 | 3 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Manchester City | 4-1-0 | 13 | 8 |
| Liverpool | 4-0-1 | 12 | 9 |
| Aston Villa | 4-0-1 | 12 | 3 |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | 11 | 5 |
| Chelsea | 3-1-1 | 10 | 6 |
| Newcastle United | 3-1-1 | 10 | 1 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-3-0 | 9 | 4 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2-3-0 | 9 | 2 |
| Fulham | 2-2-1 | 8 | 2 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-1-2 | 7 | 4 |
| Manchester United | 2-1-2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brentford | 2-0-3 | 6 | -2 |
| Bournemouth | 1-2-2 | 5 | -3 |
| West Ham United | 1-1-3 | 4 | -4 |
| Leicester City | 0-3-2 | 3 | -2 |
| Crystal Palace | 0-3-2 | 3 | -3 |
| Ipswich Town | 0-3-2 | 3 | -5 |
| Southampton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -7 |
| Everton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Aston Villa | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Bournemouth | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Brentford | 3-2-0 | .600 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Chelsea | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Crystal Palace | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Everton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Fulham | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Leicester City | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Liverpool | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester City | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Newcastle United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Southampton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .500 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| West Ham United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
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