Newcastle vs. Man City Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

Two teams off negative results meet Saturday at St. James’ Park with Newcastle United hosting Manchester City. 

Newcastle received a 3-1 thrashing over the weekend at Fulham. That brought an end to their two-match winning streak. 

As for Man City, they drew 2-2 at home against Arsenal. After falling behind 2-1, an Arsenal red card gave the edge to City, who produced a point on a 98th-minute goal. 

Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my Newcastle vs. Man City prediction. 

Newcastle vs. Man City Odds, Premier League

• Newcastle Moneyline: +380
• Man City Moneyline: -160
• Draw Moneyline: +320
• Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+115/-160)
• Both Teams to Score: Yes (-190), No (+135)

Newcastle vs. Man City Prediction: Total Goals

My Newcastle vs. Man City prediction for Saturday’s match is the Total Over 3.5 Goals (+115). 

I don’t see how this match is anything but pure chaos. 

Right now, Newcastle are incapable of playing defense. They allowed 3.17 post-shot xG over the weekend at Fulham, their worst output of the season. 

Now they have to play a City attack that has dominated them historically. 

The last time these teams met, Newcastle allowed 3.2 psxG to City. 

Want to know the worst part? It came against a team with no Erling Haaland for the entire match and Kevin De Bruyne playing on 20 minutes and change. 

Across City’s last two league trips to St. James’ Park, they’ve amassed 7.2 psxG off 21 shots on target and nine big scoring chances, per fotmob.com. 

That’s a major red flag. 

But this is also a City defense Newcastle have exploited at home. 

In those same two matches, the Magpies created 4.3 psxG off 11 shots on target and seven big scoring chances. 

City are surely without Rodri for this match and potentially the entire season after the Spaniard left Sunday’s match with a knee injury. 

Dating back to 2022, City have zero clean sheets in six matches without him. 

This total also fits a historically profitable system. 

Since 2012, matches featuring a home underdog are 68.5% to the over at either 2.5 or 3.5, including 13-6 to over 3.5 goals, assuming two factors:

• The away team’s average number of goals falls between 1.5 and 3
• The away team’s previous game O/U margin fell between +1.5 and +3.5

Just since 2021, that system is 42-18 to the over for a 70% hit rate, including 9-3 (75%) when the total is 3.5 goals. 

Newcastle United Record, Last 5 Matches

• Sept. 21 at Fulham: 1-3, L
• Sept. 15 at Wolves: 2-1, W
• Sept. 1 vs. Tottenham: 2-1, W
• Aug. 28 at Nottingham Forest: 1-1, D (EFL Cup, Forest Advance)
• Aug. 25 at Bournemouth: 1-1, D

Man City Record, Last 5 Matches

• Sept. 22 vs. Arsenal: 2-2, D
• Sept. 18 vs. Inter Milan: 0-0, D (Champions League)
• Sept. 14 vs. Brentford: 2-1, W
• Aug. 31 at West Ham: 3-1, W
• Aug. 24 vs. Ipswich Town: 4-1, W

Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Newcastle United odds and Man City odds!