- Nottingham Forest is predicted to be a -0.5-goal favorite against Bournemouth.
- Bournemouth are unbeaten in their last four against Forest.
- I predict Nottingham Forest draw, no bet is the best bet for Saturday’s fixture.
Seeking an end to their three-match home winless run, Nottingham Forest welcome Bournemouth to the City Ground.
Forest, who narrowly escaped relegation last season, have struggled against Bournemouth historically with their last competitive win coming in 2015.
However, Bournemouth sold talisman Dominic Solanke this week and the market has responded with respect for Forest.
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my prediction for Saturday’s match.
Nottingham Forest vs. Bournemouth Odds, Premier League
- Nottingham Forest Moneyline: +145
- Bournemouth Moneyline: +180
- Draw Moneyline: +240
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-140/+100)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-165), No (+115)
Nottingham Forest vs. Bournemouth Prediction: Game Spread
Based on Bournemouth’s lack of attacking prowess, I predict Nottingham Forest draw, no bet (-135) is the best market for bettors.
The last time these sides met at the City Ground, Forest delivered an encouraging performance.
Despite playing down a man for all but 23 minutes, they created 1.31 post-shot expected goals and stayed within 0.11 psxG of Bournemouth’s attack.
Even just in terms of expected goals, Bournemouth managed only a +0.59 xGDiff against 10-man Forest.
Now they lose Solanke, who was by far their best attacker. Last year, Solanke accounted for 32% of Bournemouth’s non-penalty expected goals output, per fbref.com.
Manager Andoni Iraola also won’t have Enes Unal for Saturday’s match. That leaves him with only one attacker who created more than 0.25 xG per 90 last season.
That’s going to place Bournemouth in trouble against a Forest defense that ranked sixth in non-penalty expected goals per 90 last season.
The only question mark is whether Forest’s goalkeepers can hold up.
Despite their outstanding defensive play, Forest goalkeepers allowed 17.8 goals over post-shot expected last season. That rated out as the worst in the EPL.
However, the last time these teams met without Solanke playing for Bournemouth, Forest dominated.
As road dogs, they won the expected goals battle 1.93-1.42 and the psxG battle 1.72 to 0.47.
Based on those factors, it’s difficult to foresee a scenario where Bournemouth earns all three points away from home.
Nottingham Forest Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 8 vs. Olympiacos: 4-3, W (Friendly)
- Aug. 2 vs. Villarreal: 0-0, D (Friendly)
- July 26 at Elche: 0-1, L (Friendly)
- July 23 vs. Millwall: 2-1, W (Friendly)
- July 19 at Sunderland: 1-1, D (Friendly)
Bournemouth Record, Last 4 Matches
- Aug. 10 vs. Girona: 3-2, W (Friendly)
- Aug. 4 vs. Rayo Vallecano: 1–0, W (Friendly)
- July 24 at Arsenal: 1-1, D (Friendly)
- July 20 at Wrexham: 1-1, D (Friendly)
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Nottingham Forest odds and Bournemouth odds!
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Newcastle United | Manchester City | Sep. 28 | 7:30 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Arsenal | Leicester City | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | West Ham United | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Chelsea | Brighton & Hove Albion | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Crystal Palace | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Fulham | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Wolves | Liverpool | Sep. 28 | 12:30 p.m. | Molineux |
| Ipswich Town | Aston Villa | Sep. 29 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Tottenham | Sep. 29 | 11:30 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Bournemouth | Southampton | Sep. 30 | 3 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Manchester City | 4-1-0 | 13 | 8 |
| Liverpool | 4-0-1 | 12 | 9 |
| Aston Villa | 4-0-1 | 12 | 3 |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | 11 | 5 |
| Chelsea | 3-1-1 | 10 | 6 |
| Newcastle United | 3-1-1 | 10 | 1 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-3-0 | 9 | 4 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2-3-0 | 9 | 2 |
| Fulham | 2-2-1 | 8 | 2 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-1-2 | 7 | 4 |
| Manchester United | 2-1-2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brentford | 2-0-3 | 6 | -2 |
| Bournemouth | 1-2-2 | 5 | -3 |
| West Ham United | 1-1-3 | 4 | -4 |
| Leicester City | 0-3-2 | 3 | -2 |
| Crystal Palace | 0-3-2 | 3 | -3 |
| Ipswich Town | 0-3-2 | 3 | -5 |
| Southampton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -7 |
| Everton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Aston Villa | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Bournemouth | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Brentford | 3-2-0 | .600 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Chelsea | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Crystal Palace | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Everton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Fulham | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Leicester City | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Liverpool | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester City | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Newcastle United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Southampton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .500 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| West Ham United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
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