- Liverpool is a -0.5-goal favorite against Nottingham Forest.
- Can Liverpool overcome multiple key injuries to stay in the title race?
- How to back home underdogs Forest in this match.
Before Saturday’s kickoff from The City Ground, I’m set to offer a Nottingham Forest vs. Liverpool prediction.Â
Visitors Liverpool enter this game in good form. Following a 4-1 league in over Luton Town, they captured a League Cup Final win over Chelsea and beat Southampton in the FA Cup.Â
As for Forest, they suffered a heartbreaking 1-0 loss in the FA Cup round of 16 against Manchester United and have dropped all three points in two of their last three league matches.Â
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Saturday’s fixture.Â
EPL Betting Odds – Liverpool vs. Nottingham Forest
- Liverpool Moneyline: -190
- Nottingham Forest Moneyline: +450
- Draw Moneyline: +360
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+110/-150)
EPL Prediction – Liverpool vs. Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest 1H Spread (+0.5, -135)
Liverpool, despite their current form, have so many injuries to overcome for this match.Â
All of the following normal starters will likely miss Saturday’s match: Mo Salah, Darwin Nunez, Diogo Jota, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Wataru Endo, Ryan Gravenberch, Curtis Jones, Alisson Becker and Dominik Szoboszlai.Â
As a result, I think Forest are a live underdog for Saturday’s fixture. However, I’ll opt to take them in the first half rather than +1.25 for the full game.Â
In their last five matches, Liverpool have earned an outright win only once (at Brentford).Â
Even in two home fixtures against Burnley and Luton Town – sides with worse underlying metrics than Nottingham Forest – they’ve finished 0-1-1 (W-D-L) in the first half.Â
Although Forest is a dismal 2-5 ATS as home underdogs at market close this season, they’ve proved quite good in the first half.Â
In those seven games, they’re 5-2 ATS in the first half, including two straight covers against Arsenal and Manchester United.Â
Plus, in a midweek FA Cup fixture against the Red Devils, they entered halftime tied 0-0 before losing in the 89th minute.Â
The underlying metrics back up Forest’s first half prowess as well – the Tricky Tress have posted a -0.28 post shot expected goal differential per 90 minutes, per fotmob.com.Â
As a result, I’ll trust them to continue their positive form and enter halftime either ahead or tied with the league leaders.Â
Liverpool FormÂ
Feb. 28 vs. Southampton: 3-0, W (FA Cup)
Feb. 25 vs. Chelsea: 1-0, W (League Cup, AET)
Feb. 21 vs. Luton Town: 4-1, W
Feb. 17 at Brentford: 4-1, W
Feb. 10 vs. Burnley: 3-1, W
Nottingham Forest Form
Feb. 28 vs. Manchester United: 0-1, L (FA Cup)
Feb. 24 at Aston Villa: 2-4, LÂ
Feb. 17 vs. West Ham United: 2-0, W
Feb. 10 vs. Newcastle United: 2-3, L
Feb. 7 vs. Bristol City: 1-1, D (FA Cup, Forest Win on Penalties)
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
Southampton | Manchester United | Sep. 14 | 7:30 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
Brighton & Hove Albion | Ipswich Town | Sep. 14 | 10 a.m. | Amex Stadium |
Crystal Palace | Leicester City | Sep. 14 | 10 a.m. | Selhurst Park |
Fulham | West Ham United | Sep. 14 | 10 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
Liverpool | Nottingham Forest | Sep. 14 | 10 a.m. | Anfield |
Manchester City | Brentford | Sep. 14 | 10 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
Aston Villa | Everton | Sep. 14 | 12:30 p.m. | Villa Park |
Bournemouth | Chelsea | Sep. 14 | 3:30 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
Tottenham | Arsenal | Sep. 15 | 9 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
Wolves | Newcastle United | Sep. 15 | 11 a.m. | Molineux |
EPL Standings
Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
Liverpool | 3-0-0 | 9 | 7 |
Manchester City | 3-0-0 | 9 | 7 |
Arsenal | 2-1-0 | 7 | 4 |
Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-1-0 | 7 | 4 |
Newcastle United | 2-1-0 | 7 | 2 |
Brentford | 2-0-1 | 6 | 1 |
Aston Villa | 2-0-1 | 6 | 0 |
Bournemouth | 1-2-0 | 5 | 1 |
Tottenham Hotspur | 1-1-1 | 4 | 3 |
Nottingham Forest | 1-2-0 | 5 | 1 |
Chelsea | 1-1-1 | 4 | 2 |
Fulham | 1-1-1 | 4 | 0 |
West Ham United | 1-0-2 | 3 | -1 |
Manchester United | 1-0-2 | 3 | -3 |
Leicester City | 0-1-2 | 1 | -2 |
Crystal Palace | 0-1-2 | 1 | -3 |
Ipswich Town | 0-1-2 | 1 | -5 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-2 | 1 | -6 |
Southampton | 0-0-3 | 0 | -4 |
Everton | 0-0-3 | 0 | -8 |
EPL ATS Records
Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
Arsenal | 1-2-0 | .333 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 |
Aston Villa | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-1-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
Bournemouth | 3-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
Brentford | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 0-1-0 | .000 |
Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
Chelsea | 1-2-0 | .333 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 |
Crystal Palace | 1-2-0 | .333 | 0-1-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
Everton | 0-3-0 | .000 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 0-1-0 | .000 |
Fulham | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
Ipswich Town | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 0-1-0 | .000 |
Leicester City | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 0-1-0 | .000 |
Liverpool | 3-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
Manchester City | 3-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
Manchester United | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 0-1-0 | .000 |
Newcastle United | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 0-1-0 | .000 |
Nottingham Forest | 1-2-0 | .333 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 |
Southampton | 1-2-0 | .333 | 0-1-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
Tottenham Hotspur | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
West Ham United | 1-2-0 | .333 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-1-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
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