- Liverpool is a -0.5-goal favorite against Nottingham Forest.
- Can Liverpool overcome multiple key injuries to stay in the title race?
- How to back home underdogs Forest in this match.
Before Saturday’s kickoff from The City Ground, I’m set to offer a Nottingham Forest vs. Liverpool prediction.
Visitors Liverpool enter this game in good form. Following a 4-1 league in over Luton Town, they captured a League Cup Final win over Chelsea and beat Southampton in the FA Cup.
As for Forest, they suffered a heartbreaking 1-0 loss in the FA Cup round of 16 against Manchester United and have dropped all three points in two of their last three league matches.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Saturday’s fixture.
EPL Betting Odds – Liverpool vs. Nottingham Forest
- Liverpool Moneyline: -190
- Nottingham Forest Moneyline: +450
- Draw Moneyline: +360
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+110/-150)
EPL Prediction – Liverpool vs. Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest 1H Spread (+0.5, -135)
Liverpool, despite their current form, have so many injuries to overcome for this match.
All of the following normal starters will likely miss Saturday’s match: Mo Salah, Darwin Nunez, Diogo Jota, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Wataru Endo, Ryan Gravenberch, Curtis Jones, Alisson Becker and Dominik Szoboszlai.
As a result, I think Forest are a live underdog for Saturday’s fixture. However, I’ll opt to take them in the first half rather than +1.25 for the full game.
In their last five matches, Liverpool have earned an outright win only once (at Brentford).
Even in two home fixtures against Burnley and Luton Town – sides with worse underlying metrics than Nottingham Forest – they’ve finished 0-1-1 (W-D-L) in the first half.
Although Forest is a dismal 2-5 ATS as home underdogs at market close this season, they’ve proved quite good in the first half.
In those seven games, they’re 5-2 ATS in the first half, including two straight covers against Arsenal and Manchester United.
Plus, in a midweek FA Cup fixture against the Red Devils, they entered halftime tied 0-0 before losing in the 89th minute.
The underlying metrics back up Forest’s first half prowess as well – the Tricky Tress have posted a -0.28 post shot expected goal differential per 90 minutes, per fotmob.com.
As a result, I’ll trust them to continue their positive form and enter halftime either ahead or tied with the league leaders.
Liverpool Form
Feb. 28 vs. Southampton: 3-0, W (FA Cup)
Feb. 25 vs. Chelsea: 1-0, W (League Cup, AET)
Feb. 21 vs. Luton Town: 4-1, W
Feb. 17 at Brentford: 4-1, W
Feb. 10 vs. Burnley: 3-1, W
Nottingham Forest Form
Feb. 28 vs. Manchester United: 0-1, L (FA Cup)
Feb. 24 at Aston Villa: 2-4, L
Feb. 17 vs. West Ham United: 2-0, W
Feb. 10 vs. Newcastle United: 2-3, L
Feb. 7 vs. Bristol City: 1-1, D (FA Cup, Forest Win on Penalties)
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Chelsea | Everton | Apr. 26 | 7:30 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Southampton | Fulham | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Brighton | West Ham United | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | Amex Stadium |
| Newcastle United | Ipswich Town | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Wolves | Leicester City | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | Molinneux |
| Bournemouth | Manchester United | Apr. 27 | 9 a.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Liverpool | Tottenham | Apr. 27 | 11:30 a.m. | Anfield |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 24-7-2 | 79 | 44 |
| Arsenal | 18-13-3 | 68 | 34 |
| Manchester City | 18-7-9 | 61 | 23 |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-6-9 | 60 | 14 |
| Newcastle United | 18-5-10 | 59 | 18 |
| Chelsea | 16-9-8 | 57 | 18 |
| Aston Villa | 16-9-9 | 57 | 5 |
| Bournemouth | 13-10-10 | 49 | 12 |
| Fulham | 13-9-11 | 48 | 3 |
| Brighton | 12-13-8 | 48 | 0 |
| Brentford | 13-7-13 | 46 | 6 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-12-11 | 45 | -4 |
| Everton | 8-14-11 | 38 | -6 |
| Manchester United | 10-8-15 | 38 | -8 |
| Wolves | 11-5-17 | 38 | -13 |
| Tottenham | 11-4-18 | 37 | 10 |
| West Ham | 9-9-15 | 36 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-9-20 | 21 | -38 |
| Leicester City | 4-6-23 | 18 | -46 |
| Southampton | 2-5-26 | 11 | -54 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 12-16-6 | 44.1% | 4-9-4 | 35.3% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% |
| Aston Villa | 15-18-1 | 45.6% | 7-9-1 | 44.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% |
| Bournemouth | 18-13-2 | 57.6% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 10-5-2 | 64.7% |
| Brentford | 20-11-2 | 63.6% | 10-7-0 | 58.8% | 10-4-2 | 68.8% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-15-1 | 53.0% | 7-9-0 | 43.8% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
| Chelsea | 12-19-2 | 39.4% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% |
| Crystal Palace | 18-12-4 | 58.8% | 7-6-4 | 52.9% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Everton | 17-11-5 | 59.1% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Fulham | 18-12-3 | 5.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Ipswich Town | 13-18-2 | 42.4% | 4-13-0 | 23.5% | 9-5-2 | 62.5% |
| Leicester City | 15-17-1 | 47.0% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
| Liverpool | 15-16-2 | 48.5% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% | 9-8-0 | 52.9% |
| Manchester City | 12-22-0 | 35.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% |
| Manchester United | 13-16-4 | 45.5% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% |
| Newcastle United | 19-13-1 | 59.1% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% | 8-8-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 21-12-0 | 63.6% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Southampton | 12-18-3 | 40.9% | 3-12-1 | 21.9% | 9-6-2 | 58.8% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 12-20-1 | 37.9% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 6-10-0 | 37.5% |
| West Ham United | 17-15-1 | 53.0% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 17-13-3 | 56.1% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
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