Nottingham Forest vs. Liverpool Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

Before Saturday’s kickoff from The City Ground, I’m set to offer a Nottingham Forest vs. Liverpool prediction. 

Visitors Liverpool enter this game in good form. Following a 4-1 league in over Luton Town, they captured a League Cup Final win over Chelsea and beat Southampton in the FA Cup. 

As for Forest, they suffered a heartbreaking 1-0 loss in the FA Cup round of 16 against Manchester United and have dropped all three points in two of their last three league matches. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Saturday’s fixture. 

EPL Betting Odds – Liverpool vs. Nottingham Forest

• Liverpool Moneyline: -190
• Nottingham Forest Moneyline: +450
• Draw Moneyline: +360
• Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+110/-150)

EPL Prediction – Liverpool vs. Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest 1H Spread (+0.5, -135)

Liverpool, despite their current form, have so many injuries to overcome for this match. 

All of the following normal starters will likely miss Saturday’s match: Mo Salah, Darwin Nunez, Diogo Jota, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Wataru Endo, Ryan Gravenberch, Curtis Jones, Alisson Becker and Dominik Szoboszlai. 

As a result, I think Forest are a live underdog for Saturday’s fixture. However, I’ll opt to take them in the first half rather than +1.25 for the full game. 

In their last five matches, Liverpool have earned an outright win only once (at Brentford). 

Even in two home fixtures against Burnley and Luton Town – sides with worse underlying metrics than Nottingham Forest – they’ve finished 0-1-1 (W-D-L) in the first half. 

Although Forest is a dismal 2-5 ATS as home underdogs at market close this season, they’ve proved quite good in the first half. 

In those seven games, they’re 5-2 ATS in the first half, including two straight covers against Arsenal and Manchester United. 

Plus, in a midweek FA Cup fixture against the Red Devils, they entered halftime tied 0-0 before losing in the 89th minute. 

The underlying metrics back up Forest’s first half prowess as well – the Tricky Tress have posted a -0.28 post shot expected goal differential per 90 minutes, per fotmob.com. 

As a result, I’ll trust them to continue their positive form and enter halftime either ahead or tied with the league leaders. 

Liverpool Form 

Feb. 28 vs. Southampton: 3-0, W (FA Cup)

Feb. 25 vs. Chelsea: 1-0, W (League Cup, AET)

Feb. 21 vs. Luton Town: 4-1, W

Feb. 17 at Brentford: 4-1, W

Feb. 10 vs. Burnley: 3-1, W

Nottingham Forest Form

Feb. 28 vs. Manchester United: 0-1, L (FA Cup)

Feb. 24 at Aston Villa: 2-4, L 

Feb. 17 vs. West Ham United: 2-0, W

Feb. 10 vs. Newcastle United: 2-3, L

Feb. 7 vs. Bristol City: 1-1, D (FA Cup, Forest Win on Penalties)

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