- Man City is a -1.5-goal favorite against Nottingham Forest.
- City has earned wins in two of the last three against Nottingham Forest.
- Why the market is overrating Manchester City.
As their quest for a fourth consecutive league title continues, Manchester City travels to face Nottingham Forest at the City Ground.
It marks the second match in four days for the title holders. They’ll travel to Forest after facing Brighton on the English South coast on Thursday.
Forest enters this match in less-than-desirable form. They lost 2-0 at Everton the previous weekend and are winless in their last three matches.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Sunday’s match.
EPL Betting Odds – Man City vs. Nottingham Forest
- Man City Moneyline: -275
- Nottingham Forest Moneyline: +650
- Draw Moneyline: +425
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+115/-160)
EPL Prediction – Man City vs. Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest Spread (+1.5, -130)
Although the Tricky Trees lost the reverse fixture at the Etihad, the underlying metrics suggest the match was closer than the 2-0 final.
Forest created one expected goal compared to only 1.3 for Manchester City. Even in terms of the post-shot expected goals battle, Forest won 1.0-0.4, per fbref.com.
A City red card on 46 minutes devalues some of those offensive metrics for Sunday’s hosts, but this feels like a good buy-low spot against a City side playing on short rest.
Although it’s a small sample, Forest have held their own against the title threats at home.
In two matches against Liverpool and Arsenal, they’ve stayed within this number on both occasions.
Not only did they stay within this number in terms of expected goals, too, but they limited those two sides to only four shots on target.
Forest have also quietly produced outstanding metrics at home for a bottom-half side.
Entering Sunday’s game, they’re sitting on a +0.13 xGDiff per 90 minutes at the City Ground and have dropped all three points only seven times.
Manager Nuno Espirito Santo’s side also matches a historically profitable betting system.
Since the 2012-13 season, underdogs at +1.5 or higher off a loss as underdogs that lost the previous head-to-head meeting are 62.5% ATS.
Just this season, those teams are 15-9 ATS.
With City playing on short rest, take the home dogs to do no worse than a cover with more time between games.
Man City Form
April 25 at Brighton
April 20 vs. Chelsea: 1-0, W (FA Cup)
April 17 vs. Real Madrid: 1-1, D (Champions League, Madrid Win on PK’s)
April 13 vs. Luton Town: 5-1, W
April 9 at Real Madrid: 3-3, D (Champions League)
Nottingham Forest Form
April 21 at Everton: 0-2, L
April 13 vs. Wolves: 2-2, D
April 7 at Tottenham: 1-3, L
April 2 vs. Fulham: 3-1, W
March 30 vs. Crystal Palace: 1-1, D
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Chelsea | Everton | Apr. 26 | 7:30 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Southampton | Fulham | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Brighton | West Ham United | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | Amex Stadium |
| Newcastle United | Ipswich Town | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Wolves | Leicester City | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | Molinneux |
| Bournemouth | Manchester United | Apr. 27 | 9 a.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Liverpool | Tottenham | Apr. 27 | 11:30 a.m. | Anfield |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 24-7-2 | 79 | 44 |
| Arsenal | 18-13-3 | 68 | 34 |
| Manchester City | 18-7-9 | 61 | 23 |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-6-9 | 60 | 14 |
| Newcastle United | 18-5-10 | 59 | 18 |
| Chelsea | 16-9-8 | 57 | 18 |
| Aston Villa | 16-9-9 | 57 | 5 |
| Bournemouth | 13-10-10 | 49 | 12 |
| Fulham | 13-9-11 | 48 | 3 |
| Brighton | 12-13-8 | 48 | 0 |
| Brentford | 13-7-13 | 46 | 6 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-12-11 | 45 | -4 |
| Everton | 8-14-11 | 38 | -6 |
| Manchester United | 10-8-15 | 38 | -8 |
| Wolves | 11-5-17 | 38 | -13 |
| Tottenham | 11-4-18 | 37 | 10 |
| West Ham | 9-9-15 | 36 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-9-20 | 21 | -38 |
| Leicester City | 4-6-23 | 18 | -46 |
| Southampton | 2-5-26 | 11 | -54 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 12-16-6 | 44.1% | 4-9-4 | 35.3% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% |
| Aston Villa | 15-18-1 | 45.6% | 7-9-1 | 44.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% |
| Bournemouth | 18-13-2 | 57.6% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 10-5-2 | 64.7% |
| Brentford | 20-11-2 | 63.6% | 10-7-0 | 58.8% | 10-4-2 | 68.8% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-15-1 | 53.0% | 7-9-0 | 43.8% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
| Chelsea | 12-19-2 | 39.4% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% |
| Crystal Palace | 18-12-4 | 58.8% | 7-6-4 | 52.9% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Everton | 17-11-5 | 59.1% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Fulham | 18-12-3 | 5.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Ipswich Town | 13-18-2 | 42.4% | 4-13-0 | 23.5% | 9-5-2 | 62.5% |
| Leicester City | 15-17-1 | 47.0% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
| Liverpool | 15-16-2 | 48.5% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% | 9-8-0 | 52.9% |
| Manchester City | 12-22-0 | 35.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% |
| Manchester United | 13-16-4 | 45.5% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% |
| Newcastle United | 19-13-1 | 59.1% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% | 8-8-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 21-12-0 | 63.6% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Southampton | 12-18-3 | 40.9% | 3-12-1 | 21.9% | 9-6-2 | 58.8% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 12-20-1 | 37.9% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 6-10-0 | 37.5% |
| West Ham United | 17-15-1 | 53.0% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 17-13-3 | 56.1% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
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