- Nottingham Forest is predicted to be a -0.5-goal favorite against Wolves.
- Three straight meetings between these sides have cashed the draw moneyline.
- I predict the likeliest outcome is a Nottingham Forest victory.
Nottingham Forest will look to extend their positive start to the season as they welcome Wolves to The City Ground on Saturday.
Nuno Espirito Santo’s side dominated Southampton on Matchday 2. They only won 1-0, but the visitors won the expected goals battle 2.5-0.15 as road underdogs.
Wolves, meanwhile, lost their second straight game to open the season. As home dogs to Chelsea, Gary O’Neil’s side fell 6-2 at Molineux.
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my prediction for Saturday’s match.
Nottingham Forest vs. Wolves Odds, Premier League
- Nottingham Forest Moneyline: +100
- Wolves Moneyline: +260
- Draw Moneyline: +260
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-140/+100)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-160), No (+110)
Nottingham Forest vs. Wolves Prediction: Moneyline
My prediction for Saturday’s match is the Nottingham Forest Moneyline (+100). However, this qualifies as a lean for me.
Forest matches a historically profitable system, but I’m required to add a major caveat.
Since 2012, home favorites priced between +150 and -135 that last played a road game are 61.1% SU, assuming the visitor posted between a -8 and -3 goal differential in their last game.
Those teams also earn points at an 85% rate within that 94-match sample, so Nottingham Forest Spread (+0.5, -350) is a good parlay piece.
Now for the caveat: that system generally works better later in the season.
In games 2-18, the favorite is 54.9% SU and 84.3% against +0.5. In games 19-38, the home favorite rises to 68.2% SU and 88.4% against +0.5.
Two more factors suggest a bet on Forest.
First is that both teams will play on short rest following a midweek League Cup match. However, Forest plays at home, while Wolves have to travel with only two prep days.
Additionally, Nottingham Forest bossed the previous meeting.
The match finished 2-2, but Forest won the expected goals battle 1.92-1.09 and the post-shot expected goals battle 2.27-1.53, per fotmob.com.
That marks two straight games at home where Forest have won both the xG and psxG battle by at least 0.75 against Wolves.
But, given the relative difficulty of Wolves’ schedule thus far, I’m going to pass on this match with a lean to Nottingham Forest.
Nottingham Forest Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 24 at Southampton: 1-0, W
- Aug. 17 vs. Bournemouth: 1-1, D
- Aug. 8 vs. Olympiacos: 4-3, W (Friendly)
- Aug. 2 vs. Villarreal: 0-0, D (Friendly)
- July 26 at Elche: 0-1, L (Friendly)
Wolves Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 25 vs. Chelsea: 2-6, L
- Aug. 17 at Arsenal: 0-2, L
- Aug. 10 vs. Rayo Vallecano: 0-1, L (Friendly)
- Aug. 3 at RB Leipzig: 3-0, W (Friendly)
- July 31 at Crystal Palace: 1-3, L (Friendly)
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Nottingham Forest odds and Wolverhampton Wanderers odds!
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Newcastle United | Manchester City | Sep. 28 | 7:30 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Arsenal | Leicester City | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | West Ham United | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Chelsea | Brighton & Hove Albion | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Crystal Palace | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Fulham | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Wolves | Liverpool | Sep. 28 | 12:30 p.m. | Molineux |
| Ipswich Town | Aston Villa | Sep. 29 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Tottenham | Sep. 29 | 11:30 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Bournemouth | Southampton | Sep. 30 | 3 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Manchester City | 4-1-0 | 13 | 8 |
| Liverpool | 4-0-1 | 12 | 9 |
| Aston Villa | 4-0-1 | 12 | 3 |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | 11 | 5 |
| Chelsea | 3-1-1 | 10 | 6 |
| Newcastle United | 3-1-1 | 10 | 1 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-3-0 | 9 | 4 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2-3-0 | 9 | 2 |
| Fulham | 2-2-1 | 8 | 2 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-1-2 | 7 | 4 |
| Manchester United | 2-1-2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brentford | 2-0-3 | 6 | -2 |
| Bournemouth | 1-2-2 | 5 | -3 |
| West Ham United | 1-1-3 | 4 | -4 |
| Leicester City | 0-3-2 | 3 | -2 |
| Crystal Palace | 0-3-2 | 3 | -3 |
| Ipswich Town | 0-3-2 | 3 | -5 |
| Southampton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -7 |
| Everton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Aston Villa | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Bournemouth | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Brentford | 3-2-0 | .600 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Chelsea | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Crystal Palace | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Everton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Fulham | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Leicester City | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Liverpool | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester City | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Newcastle United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Southampton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .500 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| West Ham United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
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