Arsenal vs. Sheffield United Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Arsenal's Martin Odegaard celebrates after scoring his side's third goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Arsenal and Everton at the Emirates stadium in London, Wednesday, March 1, 2023. (AP Photo/Kirsty Wigglesworth)
(AP Photo/Kirsty Wigglesworth)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Mar 04, 2024, 9:11 AM
  • Arsenal is a -2.5-goal favorite against Sheffield United.
  • Arsenal earned a 5-0 home win over Sheffield United in the reverse fixture.
  • Past trends show value on both a side and a total.

Before the final match for this EPL matchday kicks off from Bramall Lane, I’m here to offer an Arsenal vs. Sheffield United prediction

Arsenal enters this match in great league form thanks to their explosive offense. They’ve captured six EPL wins on the bounce, scoring 25 goals in those contests. 

As for Sheffield United, they’ve struggled recently. They’ve dropped all three points in four of their last five, conceding 15 goals in those contests. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Monday’s match. 

EPL Betting Odds – Arsenal vs. Sheffield United

  • Arsenal Moneyline: -550
  • Sheffield United Moneyline: +1450
  • Draw Moneyline: +675
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+100/-140)

EPL Prediction – Arsenal vs. Sheffield United

LEAN Arsenal Team Total Over 3.5 Goals (+175)

Bettors should know that Sheffield United matches a historically profitable system. 

Since the 2021-22 season, blind betting home dogs at +1.5 or higher sees bettors win at a 62.1% clip. 

Over that span, Arsenal is only 3-6 ATS as a road favorite of -1.5 or higher. 

Based on that history, it’s Sheffield United or nothing from a spread standpoint. 

But there’s another profitable angle for bettors to (potentially) exploit for Monday’s match. 

This season, EPL matches featuring a home dog allowing more than 1.5 goals per game are 63% to the over. 

However, I don’t trust the Sheffield offense against an Arsenal defense, allowing only 0.64 non-penalty expected goals per 90, per fbref.com. 

Thus, I’ll look for Arsenal to clear the total on their own. However, I’d need +200 or better to get involved. 

In 11 Sheffield matches falling under that system, they’ve allowed three or more goals four times and four or more three times. 

Shrink the sample down to four matches against sides fifth or better in npxG/90 minutes – Arsenal is third – and bettors will find Sheffield allowed two of four to clear this number. 

In those four games, they allowed 2.83 expected goals per 90 minutes and 3.85 post-shot expected goals per 90 minutes, per fbref.com. 

As a result, there’s a case to be made Arsenal slip four past the Irons, who allowed three non-penalty psxG in the reverse fixture. 

Bet if this reaches +200. Otherwise, sit out the fixture. 

Arsenal Form 

Feb. 24 vs. Newcastle United: 4-1, W

Feb. 21 at FC Porto: 0-1, L (Champions League)

Feb. 17 at Burnley: 5-0, W

Feb. 11 at West Ham United: 6-0, W

Feb. 4 vs. Liverpool: 3-1, W

Sheffield United Form

Feb. 25 at Wolves: 0-1, L

Feb. 18 vs. Brighton: 0-5, L

Feb. 10 at Luton Town: 3-1, W

Feb. 3 vs. Aston Villa: 0-5, L

Jan. 30 at Crystal Palace: 2-3, L

EPL Match Schedule This Weekend

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
Newcastle UnitedTottenhamApr. 137:30 AMSt. James' Park
BrentfordSheffield UnitedApr. 1310:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
BurnleyBrightonApr. 1310:00 AMTurf Moor
Man CityLuton TownApr. 1310:00 AMEtihad Stadium
Nottingham ForestWolvesApr. 1310:00 AMThe City Ground
BournemouthManchester UnitedApr. 1312:30 PMVitality Stadium
LiverpoolCrystal PalaceApr. 149:00 AMAnfield
West Ham UnitedFulhamApr. 149:00 AMLondon Stadium
ArsenalAston VillaApr. 1411:30 PMEmirates Stadium
ChelseaEvertonApr. 153:00 PMStamford Bridge

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City22-7-37344---
Arsenal FC22-5-57149---
Liverpool FC21-8-37141---
Aston Villa FC19-6-86319---
Tottenham Hotspur18-6-86016---
Newcastle United15-5-125017---
Manchester United15-5-1250-1---
West Ham United13-9-1148-6---
Chelsea FC13-8-10478---
Brighton & Hove Albion11-11-10442---
Wolves12-7-1343-5---
Fulham FC12-6-1542-2---
Bournemouth11-9-1242-10---
Crystal Palace8-9-1533-17---
Brentford8-8-1732-11---
Everton9-8-1527-158 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest7-9-1726-164 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-7-2025-24---
Burnley FC4-8-2120-35---
Sheffield United3-7-2216-54---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Arsenal18-13.5818-7.53310-6.625
Aston Villa16-15-1.51610-6.6256-9-1.406
Bournemouth18-12-2.5949-6-2.5889-6.600
Brentford12-19-2.3946-10-1.3826-9-1.406
Brighton & Hove Albion15-16-1.4848-7.5337-9-1.441
Burnley13-19-1.4094-12-1.2659-7.563
Chelsea15-16.48410-6.6255-10.333
Crystal Palace15-17.4696-9.4009-8.529
Everton14-18.4387-8.4677-10.412
Fulham17-15-1.53010-5-1.6567-10.412
Liverpool16-16.5009-8.5297-8.467
Luton Town21-11-1.65212-4.7509-7-1.559
Manchester City14-18.4387-10.4127-8.467
Manchester United12-19-1.3916-9.4006-10-1.382
Newcastle United16-16.50011-6.6475-10.333
Nottingham Forest14-17-2.4555-11-1.3249-6-1.594
Sheffield United18-14.5639-7.5639-7.563
Tottenham Hotspur18-14.5639-7.5639-7.563
West Ham United17-16.51510-7.5887-9.438
Wolverhampton Wanderers16-15-1.5168-7.5339-7-1.559

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.