- Arsenal is a -2.5-goal favorite against Sheffield United.
- Arsenal earned a 5-0 home win over Sheffield United in the reverse fixture.
- Past trends show value on both a side and a total.
Before the final match for this EPL matchday kicks off from Bramall Lane, I’m here to offer an Arsenal vs. Sheffield United prediction.
Arsenal enters this match in great league form thanks to their explosive offense. They’ve captured six EPL wins on the bounce, scoring 25 goals in those contests.
As for Sheffield United, they’ve struggled recently. They’ve dropped all three points in four of their last five, conceding 15 goals in those contests.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Monday’s match.
EPL Betting Odds – Arsenal vs. Sheffield United
- Arsenal Moneyline: -550
- Sheffield United Moneyline: +1450
- Draw Moneyline: +675
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+100/-140)
EPL Prediction – Arsenal vs. Sheffield United
LEAN Arsenal Team Total Over 3.5 Goals (+175)
Bettors should know that Sheffield United matches a historically profitable system.
Since the 2021-22 season, blind betting home dogs at +1.5 or higher sees bettors win at a 62.1% clip.
Over that span, Arsenal is only 3-6 ATS as a road favorite of -1.5 or higher.
Based on that history, it’s Sheffield United or nothing from a spread standpoint.
But there’s another profitable angle for bettors to (potentially) exploit for Monday’s match.
This season, EPL matches featuring a home dog allowing more than 1.5 goals per game are 63% to the over.
However, I don’t trust the Sheffield offense against an Arsenal defense, allowing only 0.64 non-penalty expected goals per 90, per fbref.com.
Thus, I’ll look for Arsenal to clear the total on their own. However, I’d need +200 or better to get involved.
In 11 Sheffield matches falling under that system, they’ve allowed three or more goals four times and four or more three times.
Shrink the sample down to four matches against sides fifth or better in npxG/90 minutes – Arsenal is third – and bettors will find Sheffield allowed two of four to clear this number.
In those four games, they allowed 2.83 expected goals per 90 minutes and 3.85 post-shot expected goals per 90 minutes, per fbref.com.
As a result, there’s a case to be made Arsenal slip four past the Irons, who allowed three non-penalty psxG in the reverse fixture.
Bet if this reaches +200. Otherwise, sit out the fixture.
Arsenal Form
Feb. 24 vs. Newcastle United: 4-1, W
Feb. 21 at FC Porto: 0-1, L (Champions League)
Feb. 17 at Burnley: 5-0, W
Feb. 11 at West Ham United: 6-0, W
Feb. 4 vs. Liverpool: 3-1, W
Sheffield United Form
Feb. 25 at Wolves: 0-1, L
Feb. 18 vs. Brighton: 0-5, L
Feb. 10 at Luton Town: 3-1, W
Feb. 3 vs. Aston Villa: 0-5, L
Jan. 30 at Crystal Palace: 2-3, L
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Everton | West Ham United | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Ipswich Town | Nottingham Forest | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Manchester City | Brighton | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Southampton | Wolves | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Bournemouth | Brentford | Mar. 15 | 1:30 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Arsenal | Chelsea | Mar. 16 | 9:30 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Fulham | Tottenham | Mar. 16 | 9:30 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Leicester City | Manchester United | Mar. 16 | 3 p.m. | King Power Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 21-7-1 | 70 | 42 |
| Arsenal | 15-10-3 | 55 | 28 |
| Nottingham Forest | 15-6-7 | 51 | 12 |
| Chelsea | 14-7-7 | 49 | 17 |
| Manchester City | 14-5-9 | 47 | 15 |
| Newcastle United | 14-5-9 | 47 | 9 |
| Brighton | 12-10-6 | 46 | 6 |
| Aston Villa | 12-9-8 | 45 | -4 |
| Bournemouth | 12-8-8 | 44 | 13 |
| Fulham | 11-9-8 | 42 | 3 |
| Crystal Palace | 10-9-9 | 39 | 3 |
| Brentford | 11-5-12 | 38 | 4 |
| Tottenham | 10-4-14 | 34 | 14 |
| Manchester United | 9-7-12 | 34 | -6 |
| Everton | 7-12-9 | 33 | -4 |
| West Ham | 9-6-13 | 33 | -16 |
| Wolves | 6-5-17 | 23 | -19 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-8-17 | 17 | -32 |
| Leicester City | 4-5-19 | 17 | -37 |
| Southampton | 2-3-23 | 9 | -48 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 10-13-5 | 44.6% | 3-7-3 | 34.6% | 7-6-2 | 53.3% |
| Aston Villa | 11-17-1 | 40.0% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 6-8-0 | 42.9% |
| Bournemouth | 17-10-1 | 62.5% | 7-6-0 | 53.8% | 10-4-1 | 70.0% |
| Brentford | 16-10-2 | 60.7% | 8-7-0 | 53.3% | 8-3-2 | 69.2% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 16-11-1 | 58.9% | 7-7-0 | 59.0% | 9-4-1 | 67.9% |
| Chelsea | 10-16-2 | 39.3% | 5-8-1 | 39.3% | 5-8-1 | 39.3% |
| Crystal Palace | 16-9-3 | 62.5% | 6-6-3 | 50.0% | 10-3-0 | 76.9% |
| Everton | 15-9-4 | 60.7% | 7-5-2 | 57.1% | 8-4-2 | 64.3% |
| Fulham | 16-10-2 | 60.7% | 6-8-0 | 42.9% | 9-3-2 | 71.4% |
| Ipswich Town | 11-15-2 | 42.9% | 4-10-0 | 28.6% | 7-5-2 | 57.1% |
| Leicester City | 12-15-1 | 44.6% | 5-9-0 | 35.7% | 7-6-1 | 53.6% |
| Liverpool | 15-13-1 | 53.4% | 6-7-1 | 46.4% | 9-6-0 | 60.0% |
| Manchester City | 9-19-0 | 32.1% | 4-9-0 | 30.8% | 5-10-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 11-13-4 | 46.4% | 6-7-2 | 46.7% | 5-6-2 | 46.2% |
| Newcastle United | 15-12-1 | 55.4% | 8-5-0 | 61.5% | 7-7-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-10-0 | 64.3% | 9-5-0 | 64.3% | 9-5-0 | 64.3% |
| Southampton | 10-15-3 | 41.1% | 2-10-1 | 19.2% | 8-5-2 | 60.0% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 11-16-1 | 41.1% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 6-7-0 | 46.2% |
| West Ham United | 14-13-1 | 51.8% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 9-4-0 | 69.2% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 12-13-3 | 48.2% | 5-7-2 | 42.9% | 7-6-1 | 53.6% |
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