Arsenal vs. Sheffield United Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

Arsenal's Martin Odegaard celebrates after scoring his side's third goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Arsenal and Everton at the Emirates stadium in London, Wednesday, March 1, 2023. (AP Photo/Kirsty Wigglesworth)
(AP Photo/Kirsty Wigglesworth)
  • Arsenal is a -2.5-goal favorite against Sheffield United.
  • Arsenal earned a 5-0 home win over Sheffield United in the reverse fixture.
  • Past trends show value on both a side and a total.

Before the final match for this EPL matchday kicks off from Bramall Lane, Iโ€™m here to offer an Arsenal vs. Sheffield United prediction.ย 

Arsenal enters this match in great league form thanks to their explosive offense. Theyโ€™ve captured six EPL wins on the bounce, scoring 25 goals in those contests.ย 

As for Sheffield United, theyโ€™ve struggled recently. Theyโ€™ve dropped all three points in four of their last five, conceding 15 goals in those contests.ย 

Hereโ€™s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Mondayโ€™s match.ย 

EPL Betting Odds – Arsenal vs. Sheffield United

  • Arsenal Moneyline: -550
  • Sheffield United Moneyline: +1450
  • Draw Moneyline: +675
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+100/-140)

EPL Prediction – Arsenal vs. Sheffield United

LEAN Arsenal Team Total Over 3.5 Goals (+175)

Bettors should know that Sheffield United matches a historically profitable system.ย 

Since the 2021-22 season, blind betting home dogs at +1.5 or higher sees bettors win at a 62.1% clip.ย 

Over that span, Arsenal is only 3-6 ATS as a road favorite of -1.5 or higher.ย 

Based on that history, itโ€™s Sheffield United or nothing from a spread standpoint.ย 

But thereโ€™s another profitable angle for bettors to (potentially) exploit for Mondayโ€™s match.ย 

This season, EPL matches featuring a home dog allowing more than 1.5 goals per game are 63% to the over.ย 

However, I donโ€™t trust the Sheffield offense against an Arsenal defense, allowing only 0.64 non-penalty expected goals per 90, per fbref.com.ย 

Thus, Iโ€™ll look for Arsenal to clear the total on their own. However, Iโ€™d need +200 or better to get involved.ย 

In 11 Sheffield matches falling under that system, theyโ€™ve allowed three or more goals four times and four or more three times.ย 

Shrink the sample down to four matches against sides fifth or better in npxG/90 minutes – Arsenal is third โ€“ and bettors will find Sheffield allowed two of four to clear this number.ย 

In those four games, they allowed 2.83 expected goals per 90 minutes and 3.85 post-shot expected goals per 90 minutes, per fbref.com.ย 

As a result, thereโ€™s a case to be made Arsenal slip four past the Irons, who allowed three non-penalty psxG in the reverse fixture.ย 

Bet if this reaches +200. Otherwise, sit out the fixture.ย 

Arsenal Formย 

Feb. 24 vs. Newcastle United: 4-1, W

Feb. 21 at FC Porto: 0-1, L (Champions League)

Feb. 17 at Burnley: 5-0, W

Feb. 11 at West Ham United: 6-0, W

Feb. 4 vs. Liverpool: 3-1, W

Sheffield United Form

Feb. 25 at Wolves: 0-1, L

Feb. 18 vs. Brighton: 0-5, L

Feb. 10 at Luton Town: 3-1, W

Feb. 3 vs. Aston Villa: 0-5, L

Jan. 30 at Crystal Palace: 2-3, L

EPL Match Schedule This Weekend

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
Newcastle UnitedManchester CitySep. 287:30 a.m.St. James' Park
ArsenalLeicester CitySep. 2810 a.m.Emirates Stadium
BrentfordWest Ham UnitedSep. 2810 a.m.GTech Community Stadium
ChelseaBrighton & Hove AlbionSep. 2810 a.m.Stamford Bridge
EvertonCrystal PalaceSep. 2810 a.m.Goodison Park
Nottingham ForestFulhamSep. 2810 a.m.The City Ground
WolvesLiverpoolSep. 2812:30 p.m.Molineux
Ipswich TownAston VillaSep. 299 a.m.Portman Road
Manchester UnitedTottenhamSep. 2911:30 a.m.Old Trafford
BournemouthSouthamptonSep. 303 p.m. Vitality Stadium

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal Differential
Manchester City4-1-0138
Liverpool4-0-1129
Aston Villa4-0-1123
Arsenal3-2-0115
Chelsea3-1-1106
Newcastle United3-1-1101
Brighton & Hove Albion2-3-094
Nottingham Forest2-3-092
Fulham2-2-182
Tottenham Hotspur2-1-274
Manchester United2-1-270
Brentford2-0-36-2
Bournemouth1-2-25-3
West Ham United1-1-34-4
Leicester City0-3-23-2
Crystal Palace0-3-23-3
Ipswich Town0-3-23-5
Southampton0-1-41-7
Everton0-1-41-9
Wolverhampton Wanderers0-1-41-9

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Arsenal3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Aston Villa4-1-0.8002-1-0.6672-0-01.000
Bournemouth3-2-0.6001-1-0.5002-1-0.667
Brentford3-2-0.6002-0-01.0001-2-0.333
Brighton & Hove Albion3-2-0.6001-2-0.3332-0-01.000
Chelsea3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Crystal Palace2-3-0.4001-2-0.3331-1-0.500
Everton1-4-0.2000-2-0.0001-2-0.333
Fulham2-3-0.4002-1-0.6670-2-0.000
Ipswich Town3-2-0.6001-1-0.5002-1-0.667
Leicester City2-3-0.4001-2-0.3331-1-0.500
Liverpool4-1-0.8002-1-0.6672-0-01.000
Manchester City3-2-0.6001-2-0.3332-0-01.000
Manchester United2-3-0.4001-1-0.5001-2-0.333
Newcastle United2-3-0.4001-1-0.5001-2-0.333
Nottingham Forest3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Southampton1-4-0.2000-3-0.0001-1-0.500
Tottenham Hotspur2-3-0.4002-1-0.5000-2-0.000
West Ham United2-3-0.4000-3-0.0002-0-01.000
Wolverhampton Wanderers2-3-0.4000-2-0.0002-1-0.667

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.