- Southampton is a 0.5-goal home favorite against Everton.
- Southampton has lost six of its last seven EPL matches as a favorite.
- My prediction for Southampton vs. Everton is for Everton to avoid defeat.
A match with potential relegation implications takes place on Saturday at St. Mary’s Stadium as Southampton hosts Everton.
Southampton is last in the Premier League with only one point. In their previous match, they traveled to Manchester City and fell 1-0.
Everton sit 16th in the league table. However, Sean Dyche’s side is unbeaten in their last five matches.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Southampton vs. Everton prediction.
Premier League Odds: Southampton vs. Everton
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Everton | +0.5 (-190) | 2.5 (-135) | +170 |
| Southampton | -0.5 (+135) | 2.5 (-105) | +150 |
| Draw | +250 |
Premier League Betting: Southampton vs. Everton Prediction
Based on Everton’s strong record against promoted teams, my Southampton vs. Everton prediction is Everton Draw, No Bet (-110).
Southampton shouldn’t be a market favorite against anyone right now. Full stop.
Despite Everton’s weak standing in the table, their results have improved as the competition has gotten easier.
After starting the season 0-0-4 (W-D-L), the Toffees are 2-3-0 in their previous five matches.
Two of those games came on the road against promoted sides Leicester City and Ipswich Town. Everton finished 1-1-0 (W-D-L) in those games with a +0.4 xGDiff per 90 minutes.
The real edge came on post-shot xG, where Everton recorded a +0.5 edge over Leicester and +2 edge over Ipswich Town.
Southampton is far and away the weakest of those three teams. They’ve also struggled this season as market favorites.
Even if you remove the match against Leicester where Southampton blew a 2-0 lead after receiving a red card, the other match is concerning.
Against Nottingham Forest, Southampton lost 1-0 while posting a -2.1 expected goal differential and a -1.6 post-shot xGDiff.
Everton also matches a historically profitable system that suggests the worst-case scenario is a draw.
Since 2012, half-goal underdogs in games 2-12 against previous road underdogs are 92-36 ATS (71.7%), assuming the spread juice range falls between -205 and +102.
Since 2022, those dogs are 31-12 ATS, including 8-3 this season.
While I’m not afraid to lay -190 with Everton +0.5, I’ll elect to save on the price and take Everton to earn a second win in three against a promoted side.
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