Southampton vs. Newcastle Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

Newcastle's Alexander Isak, right, celebrates with teammates after scoring his side's opening goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Liverpool and Newcastle, at Anfield stadium in Liverpool, England, Monday, Jan. 1, 2024.
(Jon Super/AP Photo)
  • Southampton is a +1.5-goal home underdog against Newcastle.
  • Southampton has lost 10 straight EPL Saturday day matches as an underdog.
  • My Southampton vs. Newcastle prediction focuses on the over/under.

Two teams off defeats meet on Saturday at St. Maryโ€™s Stadium, with Southampton hosting Newcastle United.ย 

The Saintsโ€™ poor start at Nottingham Forest resigned them to a 3-2 defeat after falling behind 3-0. As a result, Southampton still sits at the foot of the league table.ย 

Newcastleโ€™s nine-match winning streak ended on Saturday with a 4-1 home defeat to Bournemouth. That defeat, along with Man Cityโ€™s win, dropped the Magpies to fifth.ย 

Check out the Premier League odds and my Southampton vs. Newcastle prediction.ย 

Southampton vs. Newcastle Odds, Premier League

Southampton vs. Newcastle Prediction

Based on Newcastleโ€™s improving attack and the weak defensive metrics from Southampton, my Southampton vs. Newcastle prediction is Over 3.5 Goals (+110).ย 

Bettors are unable to glean much info from the last time these sides played. Newcastle won 1-0, but they played down a man for an hour and change.ย 

This match, barring any personnel exits, should prove much higher scoring.ย 

Southampton owns the worst defense in the Premier League. Before adjusting for strength of schedule, theyโ€™re allowing 2.18 post-shot expected goals per 90 minutes.ย 

Although Newcastle rank eighth in the corresponding offensive category, theyโ€™ve recently dominated bad defenses.ย 

Since December, Eddie Howeโ€™s side played five matches against bottom-seven post-shot xG defenses.ย 

Theyโ€™ve scored at least twice in all five matches, including three or more in a majority. From a metrics standpoint, Newcastle created 2.44 xG per 90 and 2.28 post-shot xG per 90.ย 

At the same time, Southamptonโ€™s attack has shown signs of improvement since appointing Ivan Juric.ย 

Southampton created 0.9 xG and 1.7 post-shot xG at Nottingham Forest over the weekend. As it stands, Forest ranks third in both defensive categories.ย 

That came after Southampton notched a goal off 1.54 xG and 0.7 post-shot xG at Manchester United.ย 

A return home should bolster their attack against a Newcastle side that has kept only three clean sheets away from home.ย 

History also likes this match clearing 3.5 goals.ย 

Since 2021, matches featuring a home underdog and a total of 3.5 are 15-4 to the over, assuming the road teamโ€™s last match cleared the total by between 1.5 and 2.5 goals.ย 

Pair that trend with the fact Southampton home matches are averaging 3.98 combined xG, and bettors should back a high-scoring fixture.

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.