- Southampton is a +1.5-goal home underdog against Newcastle.
- Southampton has lost 10 straight EPL Saturday day matches as an underdog.
- My Southampton vs. Newcastle prediction focuses on the over/under.
Two teams off defeats meet on Saturday at St. Mary’s Stadium, with Southampton hosting Newcastle United.
The Saints’ poor start at Nottingham Forest resigned them to a 3-2 defeat after falling behind 3-0. As a result, Southampton still sits at the foot of the league table.
Newcastle’s nine-match winning streak ended on Saturday with a 4-1 home defeat to Bournemouth. That defeat, along with Man City’s win, dropped the Magpies to fifth.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Southampton vs. Newcastle prediction.
Southampton vs. Newcastle Odds, Premier League
Southampton vs. Newcastle Prediction
Based on Newcastle’s improving attack and the weak defensive metrics from Southampton, my Southampton vs. Newcastle prediction is Over 3.5 Goals (+110).
Bettors are unable to glean much info from the last time these sides played. Newcastle won 1-0, but they played down a man for an hour and change.
This match, barring any personnel exits, should prove much higher scoring.
Southampton owns the worst defense in the Premier League. Before adjusting for strength of schedule, they’re allowing 2.18 post-shot expected goals per 90 minutes.
Although Newcastle rank eighth in the corresponding offensive category, they’ve recently dominated bad defenses.
Since December, Eddie Howe’s side played five matches against bottom-seven post-shot xG defenses.
They’ve scored at least twice in all five matches, including three or more in a majority. From a metrics standpoint, Newcastle created 2.44 xG per 90 and 2.28 post-shot xG per 90.
At the same time, Southampton’s attack has shown signs of improvement since appointing Ivan Juric.
Southampton created 0.9 xG and 1.7 post-shot xG at Nottingham Forest over the weekend. As it stands, Forest ranks third in both defensive categories.
That came after Southampton notched a goal off 1.54 xG and 0.7 post-shot xG at Manchester United.
A return home should bolster their attack against a Newcastle side that has kept only three clean sheets away from home.
History also likes this match clearing 3.5 goals.
Since 2021, matches featuring a home underdog and a total of 3.5 are 15-4 to the over, assuming the road team’s last match cleared the total by between 1.5 and 2.5 goals.
Pair that trend with the fact Southampton home matches are averaging 3.98 combined xG, and bettors should back a high-scoring fixture.
Premier League Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Chelsea | Tottenham | Apr. 3 | 3 p.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Arsenal | Apr. 5 | 7:30 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Crystal Palace | Brighton | Apr. 5 | 10 a.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Ipswich Town | Wolves | Apr. 5 | 10 a.m. | Portman Road |
| West Ham United | Bournemouth | Apr. 5 | 10 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Aston Villa | Nottingham Forest | Apr. 5 | 12:30 p.m. | Villa Park |
| Fulham | Liverpool | Apr. 6 | 9 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Brentford | Chelsea | Apr. 6 | 9 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Tottenham | Southampton | Apr. 6 | 9 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Manchester United | Manchester City | Apr. 6 | 11:30 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Leicester City | Newcastle United | Apr. 7 | 3 p.m. | King Power Stadium |
Premier League Against the Spread Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 11-13-6 | 46.7% | 4-7-4 | 40.0% | 7-6-2 | 53.3% |
| Aston Villa | 12-17-1 | 41.7% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 7-8-0 | 46.7% |
| Bournemouth | 17-12-1 | 58.3% | 7-8-0 | 46.7% | 10-4-1 | 70.0% |
| Brentford | 17-11-2 | 60.0% | 8-7-0 | 53.3% | 9-4-2 | 66.7% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-12-1 | 58.3% | 7-8-0 | 46.7% | 10-4-1 | 70.0% |
| Chelsea | 10-17-2 | 37.9% | 5-8-1 | 39.3% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% |
| Crystal Palace | 16-10-3 | 60.3% | 6-6-3 | 50.0% | 10-4-0 | 71.4% |
| Everton | 15-10-5 | 58.3% | 7-6-2 | 53.3% | 8-4-3 | 63.3% |
| Fulham | 17-10-3 | 61.7% | 7-8-0 | 46.7% | 9-3-3 | 70.0% |
| Ipswich Town | 12-16-2 | 43.3% | 4-11-0 | 26.7% | 8-5-2 | 60.0% |
| Leicester City | 13-16-1 | 45.0% | 5-10-0 | 33.3% | 8-6-1 | 56.7% |
| Liverpool | 15-13-2 | 53.3% | 6-7-2 | 46.7% | 9-6-0 | 60.0% |
| Manchester City | 9-21-0 | 30.0% | 4-11-0 | 26.7% | 5-10-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 12-14-4 | 46.7% | 6-7-2 | 46.7% | 6-7-2 | 46.7% |
| Newcastle United | 16-12-1 | 56.9% | 9-5-0 | 64.3% | 7-7-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 20-10-0 | 66.7% | 10-5-0 | 66.7% | 10-5-0 | 66.7% |
| Southampton | 11-16-3 | 41.7% | 3-11-1 | 23.3% | 8-5-2 | 60.0% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 11-17-1 | 39.7% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 6-8-0 | 42.9% |
| West Ham United | 15-14-1 | 51.7% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 10-5-0 | 66.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 14-13-3 | 51.7% | 6-7-2 | 46.7% | 8-6-1 | 56.7% |
Premier League Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 21-7-1 | 70 | 42 |
| Arsenal | 16-10-3 | 58 | 29 |
| Nottingham Forest | 16-6-7 | 54 | 14 |
| Chelsea | 14-7-8 | 49 | 16 |
| Manchester City | 14-6-9 | 48 | 15 |
| Newcastle United | 14-5-9 | 47 | 9 |
| Brighton | 12-11-6 | 47 | 6 |
| Fulham | 12-9-8 | 45 | 5 |
| Aston Villa | 12-9-8 | 45 | -4 |
| Bournemouth | 12-8-9 | 44 | 12 |
| Brentford | 12-5-12 | 41 | 5 |
| Crystal Palace | 10-9-9 | 39 | 3 |
| Manchester United | 10-7-12 | 37 | -3 |
| Tottenham | 10-4-15 | 34 | 12 |
| Everton | 7-13-9 | 34 | -4 |
| West Ham | 9-7-13 | 34 | -16 |
| Wolves | 7-5-17 | 26 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-8-18 | 17 | -34 |
| Leicester City | 4-5-20 | 17 | -40 |
| Southampton | 2-3-24 | 9 | -49 |
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