- Southampton is a +1.5-goal home underdog against Newcastle.
- Southampton has lost 10 straight EPL Saturday day matches as an underdog.
- My Southampton vs. Newcastle prediction focuses on the over/under.
Two teams off defeats meet on Saturday at St. Maryโs Stadium, with Southampton hosting Newcastle United.ย
The Saintsโ poor start at Nottingham Forest resigned them to a 3-2 defeat after falling behind 3-0. As a result, Southampton still sits at the foot of the league table.ย
Newcastleโs nine-match winning streak ended on Saturday with a 4-1 home defeat to Bournemouth. That defeat, along with Man Cityโs win, dropped the Magpies to fifth.ย
Check out the Premier League odds and my Southampton vs. Newcastle prediction.ย
Southampton vs. Newcastle Odds, Premier League
Southampton vs. Newcastle Prediction
Based on Newcastleโs improving attack and the weak defensive metrics from Southampton, my Southampton vs. Newcastle prediction is Over 3.5 Goals (+110).ย
Bettors are unable to glean much info from the last time these sides played. Newcastle won 1-0, but they played down a man for an hour and change.ย
This match, barring any personnel exits, should prove much higher scoring.ย
Southampton owns the worst defense in the Premier League. Before adjusting for strength of schedule, theyโre allowing 2.18 post-shot expected goals per 90 minutes.ย
Although Newcastle rank eighth in the corresponding offensive category, theyโve recently dominated bad defenses.ย
Since December, Eddie Howeโs side played five matches against bottom-seven post-shot xG defenses.ย
Theyโve scored at least twice in all five matches, including three or more in a majority. From a metrics standpoint, Newcastle created 2.44 xG per 90 and 2.28 post-shot xG per 90.ย
At the same time, Southamptonโs attack has shown signs of improvement since appointing Ivan Juric.ย
Southampton created 0.9 xG and 1.7 post-shot xG at Nottingham Forest over the weekend. As it stands, Forest ranks third in both defensive categories.ย
That came after Southampton notched a goal off 1.54 xG and 0.7 post-shot xG at Manchester United.ย
A return home should bolster their attack against a Newcastle side that has kept only three clean sheets away from home.ย
History also likes this match clearing 3.5 goals.ย
Since 2021, matches featuring a home underdog and a total of 3.5 are 15-4 to the over, assuming the road teamโs last match cleared the total by between 1.5 and 2.5 goals.ย
Pair that trend with the fact Southampton home matches are averaging 3.98 combined xG, and bettors should back a high-scoring fixture.
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