Southampton vs. Newcastle Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

  • Southampton is a +1.5-goal home underdog against Newcastle.
  • Southampton has lost 10 straight EPL Saturday day matches as an underdog.
  • My Southampton vs. Newcastle prediction focuses on the over/under.

Two teams off defeats meet on Saturday at St. Maryโ€™s Stadium, with Southampton hosting Newcastle United.ย 

The Saintsโ€™ poor start at Nottingham Forest resigned them to a 3-2 defeat after falling behind 3-0. As a result, Southampton still sits at the foot of the league table.ย 

Newcastleโ€™s nine-match winning streak ended on Saturday with a 4-1 home defeat to Bournemouth. That defeat, along with Man Cityโ€™s win, dropped the Magpies to fifth.ย 

Check out the Premier League odds and my Southampton vs. Newcastle prediction.ย 

Southampton vs. Newcastle Odds, Premier League

Southampton vs. Newcastle Prediction

Based on Newcastleโ€™s improving attack and the weak defensive metrics from Southampton, my Southampton vs. Newcastle prediction is Over 3.5 Goals (+110).ย 

Bettors are unable to glean much info from the last time these sides played. Newcastle won 1-0, but they played down a man for an hour and change.ย 

This match, barring any personnel exits, should prove much higher scoring.ย 

Southampton owns the worst defense in the Premier League. Before adjusting for strength of schedule, theyโ€™re allowing 2.18 post-shot expected goals per 90 minutes.ย 

Although Newcastle rank eighth in the corresponding offensive category, theyโ€™ve recently dominated bad defenses.ย 

Since December, Eddie Howeโ€™s side played five matches against bottom-seven post-shot xG defenses.ย 

Theyโ€™ve scored at least twice in all five matches, including three or more in a majority. From a metrics standpoint, Newcastle created 2.44 xG per 90 and 2.28 post-shot xG per 90.ย 

At the same time, Southamptonโ€™s attack has shown signs of improvement since appointing Ivan Juric.ย 

Southampton created 0.9 xG and 1.7 post-shot xG at Nottingham Forest over the weekend. As it stands, Forest ranks third in both defensive categories.ย 

That came after Southampton notched a goal off 1.54 xG and 0.7 post-shot xG at Manchester United.ย 

A return home should bolster their attack against a Newcastle side that has kept only three clean sheets away from home.ย 

History also likes this match clearing 3.5 goals.ย 

Since 2021, matches featuring a home underdog and a total of 3.5 are 15-4 to the over, assuming the road teamโ€™s last match cleared the total by between 1.5 and 2.5 goals.ย 

Pair that trend with the fact Southampton home matches are averaging 3.98 combined xG, and bettors should back a high-scoring fixture.

Premier League Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ChelseaTottenhamApr. 33 p.m.Stamford Bridge
EvertonArsenalApr. 57:30 a.m.Goodison Park
Crystal PalaceBrightonApr. 510 a.m.Selhurst Park
Ipswich TownWolvesApr. 510 a.m.Portman Road
West Ham UnitedBournemouthApr. 510 a.m.London Stadium
Aston VillaNottingham ForestApr. 512:30 p.m.Villa Park
FulhamLiverpoolApr. 69 a.m.Craven Cottage
BrentfordChelseaApr. 69 a.m.GTech Community Stadium
TottenhamSouthamptonApr. 69 a.m.Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
Manchester UnitedManchester CityApr. 611:30 a.m.Old Trafford
Leicester CityNewcastle UnitedApr. 73 p.m.King Power Stadium

Premier League Against the Spread Records

TeamATS RecordATS%Home ATS RecordHome ATS%Road ATS RecordRoad ATS%
Arsenal11-13-646.7%4-7-440.0%7-6-253.3%
Aston Villa12-17-141.7%5-9-136.7%7-8-046.7%
Bournemouth17-12-158.3%7-8-046.7%10-4-170.0%
Brentford17-11-260.0%8-7-053.3%9-4-266.7%
Brighton & Hove Albion17-12-158.3%7-8-046.7%10-4-170.0%
Chelsea10-17-237.9%5-8-139.3%5-9-136.7%
Crystal Palace16-10-360.3%6-6-350.0%10-4-071.4%
Everton15-10-558.3%7-6-253.3%8-4-363.3%
Fulham17-10-361.7%7-8-046.7%9-3-370.0%
Ipswich Town12-16-243.3%4-11-026.7%8-5-260.0%
Leicester City13-16-145.0%5-10-033.3%8-6-156.7%
Liverpool15-13-253.3%6-7-246.7%9-6-060.0%
Manchester City9-21-030.0%4-11-026.7%5-10-033.3%
Manchester United12-14-446.7%6-7-246.7%6-7-246.7%
Newcastle United16-12-156.9%9-5-064.3%7-7-150.0%
Nottingham Forest20-10-066.7%10-5-066.7%10-5-066.7%
Southampton11-16-341.7%3-11-123.3%8-5-260.0%
Tottenham Hotspur11-17-139.7%5-9-136.7%6-8-042.9%
West Ham United15-14-151.7%5-9-136.7%10-5-066.7%
Wolverhampton Wanderers14-13-351.7%6-7-246.7%8-6-156.7%

Premier League Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal Differential
Liverpool21-7-17042
Arsenal16-10-35829
Nottingham Forest16-6-75414
Chelsea14-7-84916
Manchester City14-6-94815
Newcastle United14-5-9479
Brighton12-11-6476
Fulham12-9-8455
Aston Villa12-9-845-4
Bournemouth12-8-94412
Brentford12-5-12415
Crystal Palace10-9-9393
Manchester United10-7-1237-3
Tottenham10-4-153412
Everton7-13-934-4
West Ham9-7-1334-16
Wolves7-5-1726-18
Ipswich Town3-8-1817-34
Leicester City4-5-2017-40
Southampton2-3-249-49

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

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Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.