- Tottenham is predicted to be a -1.5-goal favorite against Brentford.
- Brentford has earned points in four of the last five meetings.
- I predict Tottenham earn all three points in a high-scoring contest.
With both teams coming off league losses, Tottenham meets Brentford on Saturday in North London.
Spurs fell 1-0 to cross-town rivals Arsenal on Sunday while Brentford, who took a 1-0 lead early, lost to Manchester City 2-1.
Tottenham beat Brentford 3-2 in the last meeting, but they’ve historically struggled against the Bees. Before that win, Tottenham went winless in four against the Bees.
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my Tottenham vs. Brentford prediction.
Tottenham vs. Brentford Odds, Premier League
- Tottenham Moneyline: -200
- Brentford Moneyline: +450
- Draw Moneyline: +380
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+100/-140)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-190), No (+130)
Tottenham vs. Brentford Prediction: Moneyline + Prop
My Tottenham vs. Brentford prediction is the Tottenham Moneyline & Both Teams to Score (+150).
The last time these teams met, everything was set up for Brentford to perform well.
Tottenham played at home on short rest while Brentford had 11 days between games.
It did not go well.
Brentford lost the match 3-2 while allowing three expected goals.
Oh…and it came against a Spurs team with no Heung-Min Son and Oliver Skipp in defensive midfield.
Ahead of Saturday’s fixture, Brentford are dealing with an injury crisis.
Rico Henry, Aaron Hickey, Mathias Jensen and Yoanne Wissa are all out on Saturday.
Plus, Tottenham matches a historically profitable system.
Since 2012, favorites between -205 and -105 in games 2-14 are 79-21 SU (79%), assuming three factors:
- The opponent’s previous game margin fell between -4 and +0
- The previous head-to-head result was +0 or +1
- The previous game the opponent was the underdog
When those teams are at home, they improve to 37-8 SU. When the opponent is coming off a loss, the favorite improves to 57-14 SU.
All of that said, I don’t trust Tottenham’s defense to keep a clean sheet.
Both teams to score has cashed in four straight meetings between these clubs, and Brentford still has Bryan Mbeumo to create chances.
Since the 2022 EPL campaign, Brentford has scored in 76% of games with Mbeumo in the lineup.
Just last season, Brentford created 1.5 non-penalty xG per 90 minutes against Spurs, so I’ll back them to score on Saturday.
Tottenham Record, Last 5 Matches
- Sept. 18 at Coventry: 2-1, W (EFL Cup)
- Sept. 15 vs. Arsenal: 0-1, L
- Sept. 1 at Newcastle United: 1-2, L
- Aug. 24 vs. Everton: 4-0, W
- Aug. 19 at Leicester City: 1-1, D
Brentford Record, Last 5 Matches
- Sept. 17 vs. Leyton Orient: 3-1, W (EFL Cup)
- Sept. 14 at Man City: 1-2, L
- Aug. 31 vs. Southampton: 3-1, W
- Aug. 28 at Colchester: 1-0, W (EFL Cup)
- Aug. 25 at Liverpool: 0-2, L
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Tottenham odds and Brentford odds!
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Newcastle United | Crystal Palace | Apr. 16 | 2:30 p.m. | St. James' Park |
| Brentford | Brighton | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Bournemouth | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Everton | Manchester City | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| West Ham United | Southampton | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Aston Villa | Newcastle United | Apr. 19 | 12:30 p.m. | Villa Park |
| Fulham | Chelsea | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Ipswich Town | Arsenal | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Wolves | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Leicester City | Liverpool | Apr. 20 | 11:30 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Tottenham | Nottingham Forest | Apr. 21 | 3 p.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 23-7-2 | 76 | 43 |
| Arsenal | 17-12-3 | 63 | 30 |
| Nottingham Forest | 17-6-9 | 57 | 13 |
| Newcastle United | 17-5-9 | 56 | 16 |
| Manchester City | 16-7-9 | 55 | 20 |
| Chelsea | 15-9-8 | 54 | 17 |
| Aston Villa | 15-9-8 | 54 | 3 |
| Bournemouth | 13-9-10 | 48 | 12 |
| Fulham | 13-9-10 | 48 | 4 |
| Brighton | 12-13-7 | 48 | 2 |
| Brentford | 12-7-13 | 43 | 4 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-10-10 | 43 | 1 |
| Everton | 8-14-10 | 38 | -4 |
| Manchester United | 10-8-14 | 38 | -7 |
| Tottenham | 11-4-17 | 37 | 11 |
| Wolves | 10-5-17 | 35 | -14 |
| West Ham | 9-8-15 | 35 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-9-19 | 21 | -34 |
| Leicester City | 4-6-22 | 18 | -45 |
| Southampton | 2-4-26 | 10 | -54 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 11-15-6 | 43.8% | 4-8-4 | 37.5% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% |
| Aston Villa | 14-17-1 | 45.3% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 18-13-1 | 57.8% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 10-5-1 | 65.6% |
| Brentford | 19-11-2 | 62.5% | 9-7-0 | 56.3% | 10-4-2 | 68.8% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-14-1 | 54.7% | 7-9-0 | 43.8% | 10-5-1 | 65.6% |
| Chelsea | 11-19-2 | 37.5% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 5-10-1 | 34.4% |
| Crystal Palace | 17-11-3 | 59.7% | 7-6-3 | 53.1% | 10-5-0 | 66.7% |
| Everton | 17-10-5 | 60.9% | 8-6-2 | 56.3% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Fulham | 18-11-3 | 60.9% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Ipswich Town | 13-17-2 | 43.8% | 4-12-0 | 25.0% | 9-5-2 | 62.5% |
| Leicester City | 14-17-1 | 45.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
| Liverpool | 15-15-2 | 50.0% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% | 9-7-0 | 56.3% |
| Manchester City | 10-22-0 | 31.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% |
| Manchester United | 13-15-4 | 46.9% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% |
| Newcastle United | 18-12-1 | 59.7% | 10-5-0 | 66.7% | 8-7-1 | 53.1% |
| Nottingham Forest | 20-12-0 | 62.5% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% |
| Southampton | 11-18-3 | 39.1% | 3-12-1 | 21.9% | 8-6-2 | 56.3% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 12-19-1 | 39.1% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 6-10-0 | 37.5% |
| West Ham United | 17-14-1 | 54.7% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 16-13-3 | 54.7% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
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