- Tottenham is predicted to be a -1.5-goal favorite against Everton.
- Tottenham have won three straight at home against Everton.
- I predict Tottenham will earn all three points on Saturday vs. Everton
For their first home match of the season, Tottenham hosts Everton with eyes on a fourth straight home victory over the Toffees.
The campaign didn’t start well for Sean Dyche’s Everton. They fell 3-0 at home to Brighton while placing only a single shot on target.
As for Tottenham, they jumped out to an early 1-0 lead at Leicester City. However, a late Leicester tally resigned Spurs to a point.
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my prediction for Saturday’s match.
Tottenham vs. Everton Odds, Premier League
- Tottenham Moneyline: -225
- Everton Moneyline: +550
- Draw Moneyline: +400
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+120/-165)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-160), No (+110)
Tottenham vs. Everton Prediction: Moneyline Parlay
My prediction for Saturday’s match is the Tottenham moneyline (-210).
To drive the price down, I parlayed it with Man City 1H over 0.5 (-400) vs. Ipswich Town. Those two legs combine for a price of -120.
Although Everton bossed the underlying metrics in both meetings last year, they find themselves in a horrible spot.
Since the 2012-13 season, home favorites between -103 and -250 in games 2-10 are 47-11 SU, assuming three factors:
- The previous head-to-head result was between +0 and +4
- The opponent’s previous game margin is between -8 and +0
- The previous game the opponent was the underdog
Also worth noting — those teams are 77.8% ATS, including 13-5-4 ATS (72.2%) at -1, -1.25 or -1.5.
When those teams fall between -180 and -250, they improve to 16-2 SU and 11-3-4 ATS.
It gets worse for Everton.
When the last meeting produced a draw or one-goal win for the favorite, the hosts improve to 34-5 SU.
Despite winning both matches last year on expected goals, Everton played Spurs sides with some key absences.
For the first match at Tottenham, Spurs operated without Rodrigo Betancur, James Maddison, Micky van de Ven AND Destiny Udogie.
With those players — and new signing Dominic Solanke — I’ll back Spurs to start their home slate on a high note and earn all three points.
Tottenham Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 19 at Leicester City: 1-1, D
- Aug. 10 vs. Bayern Munich: 2-3, L (Friendly)
- Aug. 3 at Bayern Munich: 1-2, L (Friendly)
- July 31 at K-League All Stars: 4-3, W (Friendly)
- July 27 at Vissel Kobe: 3-2, W (Friendly)
Everton Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 17 vs. Brighton: 0-3, L
- Aug. 10 vs. Roma: 1-1, D (Friendly)
- Aug. 3 at Preston: 3-0, W (Friendly)
- July 30 at Coventry: 0-3, L (Friendly)
- July 27 at Salford: 1-2, L (Friendly)
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Tottenham odds and Everton odds!
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Newcastle United | Manchester City | Sep. 28 | 7:30 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Arsenal | Leicester City | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | West Ham United | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Chelsea | Brighton & Hove Albion | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Crystal Palace | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Fulham | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Wolves | Liverpool | Sep. 28 | 12:30 p.m. | Molineux |
| Ipswich Town | Aston Villa | Sep. 29 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Tottenham | Sep. 29 | 11:30 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Bournemouth | Southampton | Sep. 30 | 3 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Manchester City | 4-1-0 | 13 | 8 |
| Liverpool | 4-0-1 | 12 | 9 |
| Aston Villa | 4-0-1 | 12 | 3 |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | 11 | 5 |
| Chelsea | 3-1-1 | 10 | 6 |
| Newcastle United | 3-1-1 | 10 | 1 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-3-0 | 9 | 4 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2-3-0 | 9 | 2 |
| Fulham | 2-2-1 | 8 | 2 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-1-2 | 7 | 4 |
| Manchester United | 2-1-2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brentford | 2-0-3 | 6 | -2 |
| Bournemouth | 1-2-2 | 5 | -3 |
| West Ham United | 1-1-3 | 4 | -4 |
| Leicester City | 0-3-2 | 3 | -2 |
| Crystal Palace | 0-3-2 | 3 | -3 |
| Ipswich Town | 0-3-2 | 3 | -5 |
| Southampton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -7 |
| Everton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Aston Villa | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Bournemouth | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Brentford | 3-2-0 | .600 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Chelsea | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Crystal Palace | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Everton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Fulham | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Leicester City | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Liverpool | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester City | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Newcastle United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Southampton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .500 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| West Ham United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
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