- Tottenham is a -1.5-goal favorite against Nottingham Forest.
- Spurs have earned three straight league wins over Forest.
- Why bettors should look to underdogs Forest on Sunday.
Ahead of Sunday’s Premier League fixture at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, I’m here to offer a Tottenham vs. Nottingham Forest prediction.
These teams enter Sunday’s meeting heading in opposite directions. Tottenham dropped two points in the midweek at West Ham United, while Forest blew out Fulham 3-1 at home.
In the reverse fixture between these sides, Spurs earned a 2-0 road win with Forest creating a majority of their offensive production after the visitors had a man sent off.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Sunday’s match.
EPL Betting Odds – Tottenham vs. Nottingham Forest
- Tottenham Moneyline: -250
- Nottingham Forest Moneyline: +575
- Draw Moneyline: +425
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+100/-140)
EPL Prediction – Tottenham vs. Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest Spread (+1.5, -135)
Slightly worrisome is that Spurs are 9-3 SU as home favorites this season – including 8-2 in games immediately following a non-win – but Forest looked really good in the midweek.
Admittedly against a Fulham side objectively worse than Tottenham, Forest won 3-1 while holding Fulham to only three shots on target and zero big scoring chances.
Even though they now face a more difficult opponent, history says it’s wise to back an underdog immediately following an impressive performance.
Since the 2017-18 Premier League season, road dogs off a multi-goal win are 132-101-23 ATS. When the spread is +1.5 or higher, they’re 59% ATS (31-25.5-0.5).
Even more encouraging with Forest – when those teams have allowed one or fewer goals in five straight games, they’re 25-8-7 ATS over that span, including 6-1 at +1.5 or higher.
Set aside those trends and it’s worth considering Forest have the defensive prowess to stave off Tottenham’s attack.
The Tricky Trees sit seventh in non-penalty expected goals allowed per 90 minutes this season.
Although they conceded two to Spurs in the reverse fixture, this team is different under new manager Nuno Espirito Santo.
In their last 11 fixtures, they’ve surrendered only 1.27 expected goals per 90. That’s down from a season-long average of 1.44, without adjusting for strength of schedule.
Although they failed to stay within this number against Aston Villa in a recent road fixture, Forest have covered the spread against both Liverpool and Arsenal at home.
Finally, it’s a solid revenge angle for Forest’s manager, who received a sacking from Tottenham previously in his career.
Take the visitors to continue their positive momentum and cover a lofty spread.
Tottenham Form
April 2 at West Ham United: 1-1, D
March 30 vs. Luton Town: 2-1, W
March 16 at Fulham: 0-3, L
March 10 at Aston Villa: 4-0, W
March 2 vs. Crystal Palace: 3-1, W
Nottingham Forest Form
April 2 vs. Fulham: 3-1, W
March 30 vs. Crystal Palace: 1-1, D
March 16 at Luton Town: 1-1, D
March 10 at Brighton: 0-1, L
March 2 vs. Liverpool: 0-1, L
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Newcastle United | Manchester City | Sep. 28 | 7:30 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Arsenal | Leicester City | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | West Ham United | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Chelsea | Brighton & Hove Albion | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Crystal Palace | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Fulham | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Wolves | Liverpool | Sep. 28 | 12:30 p.m. | Molineux |
| Ipswich Town | Aston Villa | Sep. 29 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Tottenham | Sep. 29 | 11:30 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Bournemouth | Southampton | Sep. 30 | 3 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Manchester City | 4-1-0 | 13 | 8 |
| Liverpool | 4-0-1 | 12 | 9 |
| Aston Villa | 4-0-1 | 12 | 3 |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | 11 | 5 |
| Chelsea | 3-1-1 | 10 | 6 |
| Newcastle United | 3-1-1 | 10 | 1 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-3-0 | 9 | 4 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2-3-0 | 9 | 2 |
| Fulham | 2-2-1 | 8 | 2 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-1-2 | 7 | 4 |
| Manchester United | 2-1-2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brentford | 2-0-3 | 6 | -2 |
| Bournemouth | 1-2-2 | 5 | -3 |
| West Ham United | 1-1-3 | 4 | -4 |
| Leicester City | 0-3-2 | 3 | -2 |
| Crystal Palace | 0-3-2 | 3 | -3 |
| Ipswich Town | 0-3-2 | 3 | -5 |
| Southampton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -7 |
| Everton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Aston Villa | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Bournemouth | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Brentford | 3-2-0 | .600 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Chelsea | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Crystal Palace | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Everton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Fulham | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Leicester City | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Liverpool | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester City | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Newcastle United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Southampton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .500 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| West Ham United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
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