Tottenham vs. Nottingham Forest Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

min read
Nottingham Forest's Taiwo Awoniyi, centre, celebrates with teammates after scoring his side's opening goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Manchester United and Nottingham Forest at the Old Trafford stadium in Manchester, England, Saturday, Aug. 26, 2023.
(Jon Super/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Apr 05, 2024, 5:24 PM
  • Tottenham is a -1.5-goal favorite against Nottingham Forest.
  • Spurs have earned three straight league wins over Forest.
  • Why bettors should look to underdogs Forest on Sunday.

Ahead of Sunday’s Premier League fixture at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, I’m here to offer a Tottenham vs. Nottingham Forest prediction.

These teams enter Sunday’s meeting heading in opposite directions. Tottenham dropped two points in the midweek at West Ham United, while Forest blew out Fulham 3-1 at home. 

In the reverse fixture between these sides, Spurs earned a 2-0 road win with Forest creating a majority of their offensive production after the visitors had a man sent off. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Sunday’s match. 

EPL Betting Odds – Tottenham vs. Nottingham Forest

  • Tottenham Moneyline: -250
  • Nottingham Forest Moneyline: +575
  • Draw Moneyline: +425
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+100/-140)

EPL Prediction – Tottenham vs. Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest Spread (+1.5, -135)

Slightly worrisome is that Spurs are 9-3 SU as home favorites this season – including 8-2 in games immediately following a non-win – but Forest looked really good in the midweek. 

Admittedly against a Fulham side objectively worse than Tottenham, Forest won 3-1 while holding Fulham to only three shots on target and zero big scoring chances. 

Even though they now face a more difficult opponent, history says it’s wise to back an underdog immediately following an impressive performance. 

Since the 2017-18 Premier League season, road dogs off a multi-goal win are 132-101-23 ATS. When the spread is +1.5 or higher, they’re 59% ATS (31-25.5-0.5). 

Even more encouraging with Forest – when those teams have allowed one or fewer goals in five straight games, they’re 25-8-7 ATS over that span, including 6-1 at +1.5 or higher. 

Set aside those trends and it’s worth considering Forest have the defensive prowess to stave off Tottenham’s attack. 

The Tricky Trees sit seventh in non-penalty expected goals allowed per 90 minutes this season. 

Although they conceded two to Spurs in the reverse fixture, this team is different under new manager Nuno Espirito Santo. 

In their last 11 fixtures, they’ve surrendered only 1.27 expected goals per 90. That’s down from a season-long average of 1.44, without adjusting for strength of schedule. 

Although they failed to stay within this number against Aston Villa in a recent road fixture, Forest have covered the spread against both Liverpool and Arsenal at home. 

Finally, it’s a solid revenge angle for Forest’s manager, who received a sacking from Tottenham previously in his career. 

Take the visitors to continue their positive momentum and cover a lofty spread. 

Tottenham Form 

April 2 at West Ham United: 1-1, D

March 30 vs. Luton Town: 2-1, W

March 16 at Fulham: 0-3, L

March 10 at Aston Villa: 4-0, W

March 2 vs. Crystal Palace: 3-1, W

Nottingham Forest Form

April 2 vs. Fulham: 3-1, W

March 30 vs. Crystal Palace: 1-1, D

March 16 at Luton Town: 1-1, D

March 10 at Brighton: 0-1, L

March 2 vs. Liverpool: 0-1, L

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

Soccer Odds at BetMGM

Whether you’re a first-time bettor, casual fan, or longtime diehard, there are soccer odds for everyone at BetMGM.

Throughout the year, you can view online sports betting opportunities for the Premier League, World Cup, Champions League, and more events around the world.

If you don’t have a sportsbook account, register today with BetMGM’s welcome bonus. And check back for the best sportsbook promotions each day of the year.

BetMGM First Bet Offer $1,500
About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.