- Chelsea is a -1.5-goal favorite against Sheffield United.
- Chelsea earned a 2-0 win at home in the previous head-to-head meeting.
- Bettors should play this Same Game Parlay for Sunday’s match.
On Sunday at Bramall Lane, relegation-threatened Sheffield United welcome Chelsea for a Premier League clash.
When these sides met earlier this season, it was pure domination from Chelsea. Although they only won 2-0, they won the expected goals battle 3.1 to 0.4.
Sheffield fought admirably at Anfield on Thursday afternoon, but ultimately lost the match 3-1.
As for Chelsea, they scored twice in the final minute to win 4-3 at home over Manchester United.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Sunday’s match.
EPL Betting Odds – Chelsea vs. Sheffield United
- Chelsea Moneyline: -250
- Sheffield United Moneyline: +575
- Draw Moneyline: +400
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+100/-140)
EPL Prediction – Chelsea vs. Sheffield United
Same Game Parlay: Both Teams to Score + Over 2.5 Goals (-135)
Although I lean to over 3.5 goals (+100), this feels a safer option given past trends.
The three promoted teams this season – Burnley, Luton Town and Sheffield United – have struggled to keep out the best offenses at home.
To date, the trio have played 19 combined games against teams averaging north of 1.7 goals per game.
Only five of those matches have stayed under 2.5 goals, and the visiting team has failed to score two or more goals only four times.
Just in six Sheffield United home matches against such teams, they’ve conceded at least two goals all six times with three others clearing 3.5 goals.
Although one of those matches saw an early Sheffield United red card, I still don’t know how they keep out Chelsea.
As referenced earlier, the Blues created 3.1 expected goals at home against Sheffield.
All that said, Chelsea’s road defense leaves a lot to be desired, and Sheffield’s attack is improving.
The Blues have kept a clean sheet in only two road matches this season, and Sheffield have generated at least one expected goal in two straight.
Plus, although it’s a limited sample, the acquisition of Ben Brererton Diaz from Villarreal has paid off.
In five games with the striker, Sheffield have scored at least one goal all but once and generated 1.52 non-penalty xG per 90 minutes, per fbref.com.
Diaz wasn’t in Sheffield the last time these teams played, so expect a different offensive output than the 0.4 xG they put up on Chelsea.
For those reasons, expect a high-scoring contest on Sunday. Bet this parlay to -140.
Chelsea Form
April 4 vs. Manchester United: 4-3, W
March 30 vs. Burnley: 2-2, D
March 17 vs. Leicester City: 4-2, W (FA Cup)
March 11 vs. Newcastle United: 3-2, W
March 2 at Brentford: 2-2, D
Sheffield United Form
April 4 at Liverpool: 1-3, L
March 30 vs. Fulham: 3-3, D
March 9 at Bournemouth: 2-2, D
March 4 vs. Arsenal: 0-6, L
Feb. 25 at Wolves: 0-1, L
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Nottingham Forest | Chelsea | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Southampton | Arsenal | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Liverpool | Crystal Palace | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Anfield |
| Ipswich Town | West Ham | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Bournemouth | Leicester City | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Man United | Aston Villa | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Newcastle | Everton | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Tottenham | Brighton | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Wolves | Brentford | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Molineux |
| Fulham | Manchester City | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-8-4 | 83 | 45 |
| Arsenal | 19-14-4 | 71 | 34 |
| Manchester City | 20-8-9 | 68 | 26 |
| Newcastle United | 20-6-11 | 66 | 22 |
| Chelsea | 19-9-9 | 66 | 20 |
| Aston Villa | 19-9-9 | 66 | 9 |
| Nottingham Forest | 19-8-10 | 65 | 13 |
| Brighton | 15-14-8 | 58 | 4 |
| Brentford | 16-7-14 | 55 | 9 |
| Fulham | 15-9-13 | 54 | 2 |
| Bournemouth | 14-11-12 | 53 | 9 |
| Crystal Palace | 13-13-11 | 52 | 0 |
| Everton | 10-15-12 | 45 | -3 |
| Wolves | 12-5-20 | 41 | -15 |
| West Ham | 10-10-17 | 40 | -18 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-18 | 39 | -12 |
| Tottenham | 11-5-21 | 38 | 2 |
| Leicester City | 6-7-24 | 25 | -45 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-10-23 | 22 | -44 |
| Southampton | 2-6-29 | 12 | -59 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 14-17-6 | 45.9% | 5-10-4 | 36.8% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Aston Villa | 18-18-1 | 50.0% | 9-9-1 | 50.0% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 19-16-2 | 54.1% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 11-6-2 | 63.2% |
| Brentford | 22-12-3 | 63.5% | 11-8-0 | 57.9% | 11-4-3 | 69.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 21-15-1 | 58.1% | 10-9-0 | 52.6% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
| Chelsea | 13-20-4 | 40.5% | 7-9-3 | 44.7% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% |
| Crystal Palace | 20-13-4 | 59.5% | 8-7-4 | 52.6% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Everton | 19-12-6 | 59.5% | 9-8-2 | 52.6% | 10-4-4 | 66.7% |
| Fulham | 18-14-4 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 10-5-4 | 63.2% |
| Ipswich Town | 14-20-3 | 41.9% | 4-13-1 | 25.0% | 10-7-2 | 57.9% |
| Leicester City | 18-18-1 | 50.0% | 8-11-0 | 42.1% | 10-7-1 | 58.3% |
| Liverpool | 16-19-2 | 45.9% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 9-10-0 | 47.4% |
| Manchester City | 13-24-0 | 35.1% | 7-12-0 | 36.8% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-18-5 | 44.6% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 7-9-3 | 44.7% |
| Newcastle United | 21-15-1 | 58.1% | 13-5-0 | 72.2% | 8-10-1 | 44.7% |
| Nottingham Forest | 23-14-0 | 62.2% | 10-8-0 | 55.6% | 13-6-0 | 68.4% |
| Southampton | 13-20-4 | 40.5% | 4-12-2 | 27.8% | 9-8-2 | 52.6% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 13-23-1 | 36.5% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 7-12-0 | 36.8% |
| West Ham United | 18-17-2 | 51.4% | 6-12-1 | 34.2% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 19-15-3 | 55.4% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 11-7-1 | 60.5% |
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