- Aston Villa is a -0.5-goal favorite against West Ham.
- Villa thrashed West Ham 4-1 in the reverse fixture at Villa Park.
- Profitable system says bettors should target the total on Sunday.
This match is the marquee fixture on a short Premier League weekend. Below, bettors can find my prediction for Aston Villa vs. West Ham.
Both teams enter this fixture in disappointing form. Villa lost 4-0 at home to Tottenham last Sunday and conceded two goals whilst down a man.
As for West Ham, they experienced some bad luck against Burnley – a screamer from well outside the box and an own goal saw them fall behind 2-0 before rescuing a point.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Sunday’s match.
EPL Betting Odds – Aston Villa vs. West Ham
- Aston Villa Moneyline: +125
- West Ham Moneyline: +185
- Draw Moneyline: +275
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+125/-175)
EPL Prediction – Aston Villa vs. West Ham
Total Over 3.5 Goals (+125)
Wait for lineups to come out before betting this market as I only like it if Villa talisman Ollie Watkins starts.
If he does, I don’t know how this game is anything but pure chaos.
This season, overs have proved particularly profitable in matches featuring a home dog with a bad defense.
Sample 63 games in which the home dog allows more than 1.7 goals per game, and bettors will find 39 of those games have cleared the pre-match total.
Within that system, bettors should note the over is 4-1 when Aston Villa is the road team, including three straight overs.
West Ham’s defense was unlucky last week, but that positive regression won’t come against a strong Villa attack.
In the last meeting between these sides, Villa created 3.14 post shot expected goals and 2.23 non-penalty psxG, per fotmob.com.
Plus, West Ham will play this match on short rest after featuring in the Europa League on Thursday.
At the same time, Villa’s defense – even if manager Unai Emery opts for five at the back – should look tired after their Europa Conference League tie on Thursday.
West Ham’s attack has also looked solid at home when they have Lucas Paqueta in the lineup.
In 11 such matches, manager David Moyes’ side has created 1.43 expected goals per 90 minutes.
Plus, the Hammers face a Villa defense that’s looked vulnerable recently.
Since the calendar turned to 2024, Emery’s side has surrendered 1.79 expected goals per 90 minutes, according to fbref.com.
As a result, bettors should expect goals galore in Sunday’s match. Take over 3.5 at +100 or better.
Aston Villa Form
March 14 vs. Ajax: 4-0, W (Europa Conference League)
March 10 vs. Tottenham: 0-4, L
March 7 at Ajax: 0-0, D (Europa Conference League)
March 2 at Luton Town: 3-2, W
Feb. 24 vs. Nottingham Forest: 4-2, W
West Ham Form
March 14 vs. Freiburg: 5-0, W (Europa League)
March 10 vs. Burnley: 2-2, D
March 7 at Freiburg: 0-1, L (Europa League)
March 2 at Everton: 3-1, W
Feb. 26 vs. Brentford: 4-2, W
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Newcastle United | Manchester City | Sep. 28 | 7:30 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Arsenal | Leicester City | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | West Ham United | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Chelsea | Brighton & Hove Albion | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Crystal Palace | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Fulham | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Wolves | Liverpool | Sep. 28 | 12:30 p.m. | Molineux |
| Ipswich Town | Aston Villa | Sep. 29 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Tottenham | Sep. 29 | 11:30 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Bournemouth | Southampton | Sep. 30 | 3 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Manchester City | 4-1-0 | 13 | 8 |
| Liverpool | 4-0-1 | 12 | 9 |
| Aston Villa | 4-0-1 | 12 | 3 |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | 11 | 5 |
| Chelsea | 3-1-1 | 10 | 6 |
| Newcastle United | 3-1-1 | 10 | 1 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-3-0 | 9 | 4 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2-3-0 | 9 | 2 |
| Fulham | 2-2-1 | 8 | 2 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-1-2 | 7 | 4 |
| Manchester United | 2-1-2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brentford | 2-0-3 | 6 | -2 |
| Bournemouth | 1-2-2 | 5 | -3 |
| West Ham United | 1-1-3 | 4 | -4 |
| Leicester City | 0-3-2 | 3 | -2 |
| Crystal Palace | 0-3-2 | 3 | -3 |
| Ipswich Town | 0-3-2 | 3 | -5 |
| Southampton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -7 |
| Everton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Aston Villa | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Bournemouth | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Brentford | 3-2-0 | .600 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Chelsea | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Crystal Palace | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Everton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Fulham | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Leicester City | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Liverpool | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester City | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Newcastle United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Southampton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .500 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| West Ham United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
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