- West Ham is predicted to be a +0.5-goal underdog against Chelsea.
- The home team won both of the head-to-head meetings last season.
- I predict West Ham United will earn all three points on Saturday.
Two teams off positive results meet in Saturday’s London Derby with West Ham United hosting Chelsea.
The Blues continued their positive momentum with a 1-0 road win over Bournemouth last Saturday. As for West Ham, a 95th-minute strike earned them a point against Fulham.
Last season, West Ham earned a 3-1 home win over Chelsea. However, they followed it up with 5-0 thrashing at Stamford Bridge.
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my West Ham vs. Chelsea prediction.
West Ham vs. Chelsea Odds, Premier League
- West Ham Moneyline:+210
- Chelsea Moneyline: +105
- Draw Moneyline: +290
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+110/-155)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-225), No (+160)
West Ham vs. Chelsea Prediction: Moneyline
My prediction for West Ham vs. Chelsea is the West Ham United Moneyline (+210).
At some point, Chelsea’s massive road luck has to catch up with them.
Through two league road matches, Chelsea has a +5 goal differential against a -1.3 expected goal differential, per fbref.com.
That’s the biggest overperformance away from home by any EPL team.
On Saturday, they get a West Ham side that bossed them in the last meeting at the London Stadium.
Wash out both penalty kicks, and bettors will still find the Hammers earned a 1.68-0.56 post-shot xG result in the match.
Chelsea also find themselves in a historically perilous spot.
Home dogs between +205 and +855 with between three and seven days between games are 78-221 SU (26.1%) since 2012, assuming two factors:
- The favorite’s previous game margin is between +0 and +2
- The underdog’s previous game margin is between -1 and +1
When those dogs fell by three or more goals in the previous meeting — West Ham lost by five — they improve to 19-36 SU (34.5%), including 10-13 between +205 and +400.
One added layer — when those dogs are playing Chelsea, they’re 10-20 SU since 2017.
Take a shot with the Hammers on the moneyline against an overperforming Blues side.
West Ham Record, Last 5 Matches
- Sept. 14 at Fulham: 1-1, D
- Aug. 31 vs. Manchester City: 1-3, L
- Aug. 28 vs. Bournemouth: 1-0, W (EFL Cup)
- Aug. 24 at Crystal Palace: 2-0, W
- Aug. 17 vs. Aston Villa: 1-2, L
Chelsea Record, Last 5 Matches
- Sept. 14 at Bournemouth: 1-0, W
- Sept. 1 vs. Crystal Palace: 1-1, D
- Aug. 29 at Servette: 1-2, L (Europa Conference League)
- Aug. 25 at Wolves: 6-2, W
- Aug. 22 vs. Servette: 2-0, W (Europa Conference League)
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest West Ham United odds and Chelsea odds!
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Newcastle United | Manchester City | Sep. 28 | 7:30 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Arsenal | Leicester City | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | West Ham United | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Chelsea | Brighton & Hove Albion | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Crystal Palace | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Fulham | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Wolves | Liverpool | Sep. 28 | 12:30 p.m. | Molineux |
| Ipswich Town | Aston Villa | Sep. 29 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Tottenham | Sep. 29 | 11:30 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Bournemouth | Southampton | Sep. 30 | 3 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Manchester City | 4-1-0 | 13 | 8 |
| Liverpool | 4-0-1 | 12 | 9 |
| Aston Villa | 4-0-1 | 12 | 3 |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | 11 | 5 |
| Chelsea | 3-1-1 | 10 | 6 |
| Newcastle United | 3-1-1 | 10 | 1 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-3-0 | 9 | 4 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2-3-0 | 9 | 2 |
| Fulham | 2-2-1 | 8 | 2 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-1-2 | 7 | 4 |
| Manchester United | 2-1-2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brentford | 2-0-3 | 6 | -2 |
| Bournemouth | 1-2-2 | 5 | -3 |
| West Ham United | 1-1-3 | 4 | -4 |
| Leicester City | 0-3-2 | 3 | -2 |
| Crystal Palace | 0-3-2 | 3 | -3 |
| Ipswich Town | 0-3-2 | 3 | -5 |
| Southampton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -7 |
| Everton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Aston Villa | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Bournemouth | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Brentford | 3-2-0 | .600 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Chelsea | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Crystal Palace | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Everton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Fulham | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Leicester City | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Liverpool | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester City | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Newcastle United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Southampton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .500 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| West Ham United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
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