- Tottenham is a -0.5-goal favorite against West Ham.
- West Ham earned a 2-1 road victory against Spurs in the reverse fixture.
- Bet this side based on the return of key personnel.
It’s a London Derby at the former Olympic Stadium as West Ham United gets set to face Tottenham.
When these sides met last, it did not go well for hosts Tottenham. After claiming an early 1-0 lead, they faltered late to lose 2-1 at home.
This past weekend, Tottenham came from behind to win 2-1 against Luton Town, while West Ham blew a 3-1 lead at Newcastle on their way to a 4-3 defeat.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for this midweek Premier League fixture.
EPL Betting Odds – Tottenham vs. West Ham
- Tottenham Moneyline: +110
- West Ham Moneyline: +210
- Draw Moneyline: +290
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+100/-135)
EPL Prediction – Tottenham vs. West Ham
Tottenham Moneyline (+110) – Wait for Lineups
I can’t begin to describe the difference James Maddison and Micky van de Ven make for Tottenham.
The pair have both featured at least an hour for Tottenham in 16 fixtures this season. Their record in those games is 12-3-1 (W-D-L).
In the 13 remaining games where at least one doesn’t play for Tottenham, Spurs are 5-2-6 (W-D-L).
Assuming van de Ven returns to the lineup for this midweek match, Tottenham are worth a bet.
That’s because it’s a good revenge spot against West Ham, who won against Spurs without Maddison in the lineup.
Plus, Tottenham matches a historically profitable betting system.
Since the 2013-14 EPL season, favorites sitting between +120 and -125 that lost the previous matchup by either one or two goals are 45-27 SU, assuming the opponent played on the road in their previous game.
Shrink the sample down to games in which the favorite was at home in their previous game and it becomes 34-19 SU, including 5-2 this season.
Another system fits this game.
Fading dogs who allowed three or more goals in their previous game with a team off a win sees bettors go 130-62 SU, assuming the favorite has a winning percentage north of 50%.
Finally, West Ham has drastically overperformed this season, especially at home.
The Hammers own a +3 goal differential at the London Stadium compared to -3.5 expected goal differential, per fbref.com.
Although they’ve only lost three games outright at home – two of which came against Man City and Arsenal – I’ll back Spurs as favorites to get revenge on their fellow Londoners.
Tottenham Form
March 30 vs. Luton Town: 2-1, W
March 16 at Fulham: 0-3, L
March 10 at Aston Villa: 4-0, W
March 2 vs. Crystal Palace: 3-1, W
Feb. 17 vs. Wolves: 1-2, L
Feb. 10 vs. Brighton: 2-1, W
West Ham Form
March 30 at Newcastle United: 3-4, L
March 17 vs. Aston Villa: 1-1, D
March 14 vs. Freiburg: 5-0, W (Europa League)
March 10 vs. Burnley: 2-2, D
March 7 at Freiburg: 0-1, L (Europa League)
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Brighton | Chelsea | Feb. 14 | 3 p.m. | Amex Stadium |
| Leicester City | Arsenal | Feb. 15 | 7:30 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Aston Villa | Ipswich Town | Feb. 15 | 10 a.m. | Villa Park |
| Fulham | Nottingham Forest | Feb. 15 | 10 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Man City | Newcastle United | Feb. 15 | 10 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Southampton | Bournemouth | Feb. 15 | 10 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| West Ham United | Brentford | Feb. 15 | 10 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Everton | Feb. 15 | 12:30 p.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Liverpool | Wolves | Feb. 16 | 9 a.m. | Anfield |
| Tottenham | Manchester United | Feb. 16 | 11:30 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 17-5-1 | 56 | 35 |
| Arsenal | 14-8-2 | 50 | 27 |
| Nottingham Forest | 14-5-5 | 47 | 13 |
| Chelsea | 12-7-5 | 43 | 16 |
| Manchester City | 12-5-7 | 41 | 13 |
| Newcastle United | 12-5-7 | 41 | 13 |
| Bournemouth | 11-7-6 | 40 | 13 |
| Aston Villa | 10-7-7 | 37 | -3 |
| Fulham | 9-9-6 | 36 | 4 |
| Brighton | 8-10-6 | 34 | -3 |
| Brentford | 9-4-11 | 31 | 0 |
| Crystal Palace | 7-9-8 | 30 | -2 |
| Manchester United | 8-5-11 | 29 | -6 |
| Tottenham | 8-3-13 | 27 | 11 |
| West Ham United | 7-6-11 | 27 | -17 |
| Everton | 6-8-9 | 26 | -5 |
| Wolves | 5-4-15 | 19 | -18 |
| Leicester City | 3-5-15 | 17 | -28 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-7-14 | 16 | -27 |
| Southampton | 2-3-19 | 9 | -36 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 9-10-5 | 47.9% | 3-6-3 | 37.5% | 6-4-2 | 58.3% |
| Aston Villa | 8-15-1 | 35.4% | 3-8-1 | 29.2% | 5-7-0 | 41.7% |
| Bournemouth | 16-8-0 | 66.7% | 7-5-0 | 58.3% | 9-3-0 | 75.0% |
| Brentford | 14-8-2 | 62.5% | 8-5-0 | 61.5% | 6-3-2 | 63.6% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 12-11-1 | 52.1% | 4-7-0 | 36.4% | 8-4-1 | 65.4% |
| Chelsea | 9-13-2 | 41.7% | 4-7-1 | 37.5% | 5-6-1 | 45.8% |
| Crystal Palace | 13-8-3 | 60.4% | 4-5-3 | 45.8% | 9-3-0 | 75.0% |
| Everton | 12-9-2 | 56.5% | 6-5-1 | 54.2% | 6-4-1 | 59.1% |
| Fulham | 14-8-2 | 62.5% | 5-7-0 | 41.7% | 8-2-2 | 75.0% |
| Ipswich Town | 10-13-1 | 43.8% | 4-9-0 | 30.8% | 6-4-1 | 59.1% |
| Leicester City | 11-12-1 | 47.9% | 5-7-0 | 41.7% | 6-5-1 | 54.2% |
| Liverpool | 13-9-1 | 58.7% | 5-5-1 | 50.0% | 8-4-0 | 66.7% |
| Manchester City | 7-17-0 | 29.2% | 3-8-0 | 27.3% | 4-9-0 | 30.8% |
| Manchester United | 10-12-2 | 45.8% | 5-7-1 | 42.3% | 5-5-1 | 50.0% |
| Newcastle United | 13-10-1 | 56.3% | 7-5-0 | 58.3% | 6-5-1 | 54.2% |
| Nottingham Forest | 16-8-0 | 66.7% | 7-5-0 | 58.3% | 9-3-0 | 75.0% |
| Southampton | 9-12-3 | 43.8% | 2-8-1 | 22.7% | 7-4-2 | 61.5% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 9-15-0 | 37.5% | 4-8-0 | 33.3% | 5-7-0 | 41.7% |
| West Ham United | 12-11-1 | 52.1% | 4-7-1 | 37.5% | 8-4-0 | 66.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 10-12-2 | 45.8% | 5-6-1 | 45.8% | 5-6-1 | 45.8% |
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