- Wolves is predicted to be a +0.5-goal underdog against Chelsea.
- Wolves have captured three straight wins against Chelsea.
- My prediction for Sunday’s game is a Same Game Parlay.
Seeking their fourth straight win in the head-to-head series, Wolves welcome Chelsea to Molineux on Sunday.
Both teams arrive at Sunday’s fixture off Matchday 1 defeats. Chelsea lost to Man City as home underdogs, while Wolves traveled to Arsenal and lost 2-0.
Wolves have produced strong results over Chelsea. Since earning promotion to the top flight, they’ve dropped all three points only three times in 12 matches.
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my prediction for Sunday’s match.
Wolves vs. Chelsea Odds, Premier League
- Wolves Moneyline: +333
- Chelsea Moneyline: -135
- Draw Moneyline: +300
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-165/+120)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-175), No (+120)
Wolves vs. Chelsea Prediction: Same Game Parlay
My prediction for Sunday’s match is a Same Game Parlay: First half under 1.5 and the game under 3.5 (-105).
The last match featured six goals, but it was extremely lucky to get three.
Wolves, for the match, scored three goals from open play off 0.77 post-shot expected goals. Excluding their penalty, only one shot on target cleared 0.15 psxG.
Manager Gary O’Neil’s side proved particularly lucky in the opening frame. They scored two goals off 0.41 xG and 0.23 psxG.
That marks two straight games where Wolves have struggled to create in the first half. In both games last year, they combined to create 0.44 xG per half and 0.12 psxG per half.
The good news for Wolves? They simultaneously limited Chelsea’s attack.
The Blues averaged 0.83 xG per first half and 0.61 psxG per first half.
Chances proved few and far between for Chelsea across both matches, too.
After making some manual adjustments, Chelsea created 1.36 psxG per 90 minutes against Wolves last season, per fotmob.com.
Plus, Wolves’ defense left me encouraged from their opening match.
O’Neil’s side held Arsenal, a side with superior attacking metrics to Chelsea last season, to 1.15 psxG in the first half and 1.7 psxG for the match.
Add in my distrust of both attacks and I’ll back some immediate regression from the last head-to-head meeting.
Wolves Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 17 at Arsenal: 0-2, L
- Aug. 10 vs. Rayo Vallecano: 0-1, L (Friendly)
- Aug. 3 at RB Leipzig: 3-0, W (Friendly)
- July 31 at Crystal Palace: 1-3, L (Friendly)
- July 27 at West Ham United: 3-1, W (Friendly)
Chelsea Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 18 vs. Man City: 0-1, L
- Aug. 11 vs. Inter: 1-1, D (Friendly)
- Aug. 6 at Real Madrid: 1-2, L (Friendly)
- Aug. 3 vs. Man City: 2-4, L (Friendly)
- July 31 vs. America: 3-0, W (Friendly)
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Wolverhampton Wanderers odds and Chelsea odds!
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Newcastle United | Manchester City | Sep. 28 | 7:30 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Arsenal | Leicester City | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | West Ham United | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Chelsea | Brighton & Hove Albion | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Crystal Palace | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Fulham | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Wolves | Liverpool | Sep. 28 | 12:30 p.m. | Molineux |
| Ipswich Town | Aston Villa | Sep. 29 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Tottenham | Sep. 29 | 11:30 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Bournemouth | Southampton | Sep. 30 | 3 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Manchester City | 4-1-0 | 13 | 8 |
| Liverpool | 4-0-1 | 12 | 9 |
| Aston Villa | 4-0-1 | 12 | 3 |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | 11 | 5 |
| Chelsea | 3-1-1 | 10 | 6 |
| Newcastle United | 3-1-1 | 10 | 1 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-3-0 | 9 | 4 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2-3-0 | 9 | 2 |
| Fulham | 2-2-1 | 8 | 2 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-1-2 | 7 | 4 |
| Manchester United | 2-1-2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brentford | 2-0-3 | 6 | -2 |
| Bournemouth | 1-2-2 | 5 | -3 |
| West Ham United | 1-1-3 | 4 | -4 |
| Leicester City | 0-3-2 | 3 | -2 |
| Crystal Palace | 0-3-2 | 3 | -3 |
| Ipswich Town | 0-3-2 | 3 | -5 |
| Southampton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -7 |
| Everton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Aston Villa | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Bournemouth | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Brentford | 3-2-0 | .600 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Chelsea | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Crystal Palace | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Everton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Fulham | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Leicester City | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Liverpool | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester City | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Newcastle United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Southampton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .500 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| West Ham United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
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