Ravens vs Buccaneers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NFL, Week 7

(AP Photo/Peter Joneleit)
  • The Ravens are -3.5 point favorites vs the Buccaneers
  • Total (Over/Under): 49.5 points
  • Watch this game on ESPN | ABC

The Baltimore Ravens (4-2-0) visit Raymond James Stadium to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2-0) on Oct. 21. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EDT in Tampa, FL.

The Ravens are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-110).

The Ravens vs. Buccaneers Over/Under is 49.5 total points for the game.

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Ravens vs. Buccaneers Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Ravens-3.5 -11049.5 -110-190
Buccaneers +3.5 -11049.5 -110+155

Ravens vs. Buccaneers Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Ravens will win this game with 68.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Ravens vs Buccaneers Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Ravens will cover the spread with 64.3% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Ravens players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Ravens Player Prop Bets Today

  • Derrick Henry has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.40 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Rashod Bateman has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.35 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Keaton Mitchell has hit the Longest Rush Over in his last 5 games (+5.05 Units / 89% ROI)
  • Rashod Bateman has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 16 games (+5.05 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Lamar Jackson has hit the Longest Rush Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 84% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Buccaneers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Buccaneers Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Baker Mayfield has hit the TD Passes Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+10.00 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Bucky Irving has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 85% ROI)
  • Baker Mayfield has hit the Completions Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+5.50 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Baker Mayfield has hit the Passing Yards Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+5.30 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Chase McLaughlin has hit the Field Goals Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+4.95 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Ravens have hit the 2H Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games (+8.00 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Ravens have covered the 1H Spread in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.10 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Ravens have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 games (+7.05 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Ravens have covered the 2H Spread in 8 of their last 9 games (+6.95 Units / 71% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Ravens have hit the 1H Moneyline in 14 of their last 22 games (+6.45 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have scored last in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.65 Units / 53% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+7.65 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 2Q Spread in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.20 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have scored first in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.95 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.65 Units / 32% ROI)

Ravens Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Ravens art 3-2 (+0.85 Units / 12.69% ROI).

  • Ravens are 4-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.4 Units / -11.11% ROI
  • Ravens are 5-1 when betting the Over for +3.9 Units / 59.09% ROI
  • Ravens are 1-5 when betting the Under for -4.5 Units / ROI

Buccaneers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Buccaneers are 4-2 (+1.8 Units / 27.27% ROI).

  • Buccaneers are 4-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.45 Units / 26.06% ROI
  • Buccaneers are 4-2 when betting the Over for +1.8 Units / 27.27% ROI
  • Buccaneers are 2-4 when betting the Under for -2.4 Units / -36.36% ROI

Baltimore Ravens: Keys to the Game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Ravens were undefeated (4-0) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .363.

The Ravens are undefeated (5-0) vs top 10 offenses since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .348.

The Ravens are undefeated (6-0) vs top 10 run offenses since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .417.

The Ravens were undefeated (4-0) when the opposing team commits 60 yards or more in penalties. last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .513.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Keys to the Game vs. the Baltimore Ravens

The Buccaneers were winless (0-7) when trailing at the end of the third quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .148.

The Buccaneers were winless (0-7) when rushing less than 25 times last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .276.

The Buccaneers were 7-1 (.875) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent last season — T-3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .631.

The Buccaneers are winless (0-8) when trailing at the end of the third quarter since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .145.

Baltimore Ravens Offense: Important Stats

The Ravens have rushed for 20+ yards 31 times since the 2023 season — 2nd-most in NFL.

The Ravens have run successful plays on 55% of plays against a base front this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Ravens have thrown the ball 10% of the time (2 Pass Attempts/20 plays) on 3rd and short this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Ravens have averaged 0.24 epa per play on motion plays this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 0.00.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offense: Important Stats

The Buccaneers have thrown for 15 TDs this season — most in NFL.

The Buccaneers have faced a blitz 38% of the time on 3rd and short this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 11%.

The Buccaneers have run successful plays on 61% of pass attempts on motion plays this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Buccaneers ran successful plays on 59% of plays against a base front in Week 6 — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

Baltimore Ravens Defense: Important Stats

The Ravens defense has allowed 16 of 104 (15%) first downs on the ground this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

The Ravens defense has allowed first downs on 14% of rush attempts this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 26%.

The Ravens defense has allowed 88 of 104 (85%) first downs through the air (85%) this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 61%.

The Ravens defense has allowed 28 receptions for 20+ yards this season — most in NFL.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense: Important Stats

The Buccaneers defense has blitzed on 31% of plays this season — 3rd-highest in NFL; League Avg: 16%.

The Buccaneers defense allowed a passer rating of just 25.3 with a stacked front (16 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 110.0.

The Buccaneers defense has allowed a passer rating of just 38.6 with a stacked front (22 Pass Attempts) since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 110.5.

The Buccaneers defense allowed an average of 1.5 yards after contact per carry (349 carries) to RBs last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 1.9.

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.