PSG vs. Real Sociedad Prediction, Odds, Pick | Champions League Match Preview

Before Tuesday’s UEFA Champions League match in Spain, I’m here to offer a Real Sociedad vs. PSG prediction. 

PSG arrive at the second leg in a solid position to reach the quarterfinals. Manager Luis Enrique’s side has a 2-0 aggregate advantage and is -1000 to advance. 

Despite oddsmakers pricing Real Sociedad as favorites for the second leg, the Spanish side is +550 to reach the quarters. 

Here’s a look at the UCL odds and my best bet for Tuesday’s second leg. 

UCL Betting Odds – Real Sociedad vs. PSG

• Real Sociedad Moneyline: +155
• PSG Moneyline: +170
• Draw Moneyline: +230
• Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-110/-130)

UCL Prediction – Real Sociedad vs. PSG

Real Sociedad 1H Draw, No Bet (-125)

The good news for Sociedad? History is on their side for the second leg. 

Since the 2019-20 UCL round of 16, home teams that earned an outright win in the first leg are only 2-2-6 (W-D-L) in the second leg. 

However, I’m wary of fading a PSG team that can turn the jets on in the second half, so I’ll take the hosts to avoid defeat in the opening 45 minutes. 

Across seven Champions League fixtures, PSG have created only 4.77 post shot expected goals in the first half, per fbref.com. 

Comparatively, they’ve generated a whopping 9.09 psxG in the second half. 

Further, in three road first halves during the group stage, PSG produced zero outright wins. 

Although they won the first half psxG battle 0.73 to 0 in Paris, the xG battle was much closer. All told, PSG edged Sociedad 0.32 to 0.28 on xG in the first half. 

Now, Sociedad get talisman Mikal Oyarzabal back for the second leg. Plus, the Spanish outfit has looked decent at home early against tough competition. 

In the group stage against Inter Milan, Sociedad entered halftime up 1-0 and won the psxG battle 0.41 to 0, along with the xG battle 0.84 to 0.03, per fbref.com. 

Sociedad’s form in the first half extends to La Liga, too. In two meetings with Real Madrid and Barcelona, they’re 1-1-0 (W-D-L) in the first half. 

With PSG likely content to sit off until their lead is threatened, take Sociedad to enter halftime no worse than tied. 

Real Sociedad Form 

March 2 at Sevilla: 2-3, L

Feb. 27 vs. Mallorca: 1-1, D (Copa Del Rey, Mallorca Win on PK’s)

Feb. 23 vs. Villarreal: 1-3, L

Feb. 18 at Mallorca: 2-1, W

Feb. 14 at PSG: 0-2, L (Champions League)

PSG Form

March 1 at Monaco: 0-0, D

Feb. 25 vs. Rennes: 1-1, D

Feb. 17 at Nantes: 2-0, W

Feb. 14 vs. Real Sociedad: 2-0, W (Champions League)

Feb. 10 vs. Lille: 3-1, W