Air Force vs Army Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 10

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Army Black Knights head coach Jeff Monken converses with other coaches on his headset about the next play during an NCAA college football game against Air Force in Arlington, Texas, Saturday, Nov. 5, 2022. (AP Photo/Emil Lippe)
(AP Photo/Emil Lippe)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 01, 2024, 3:24 PM
  • Army is a -22.5 point favorite vs. Air Force
  • Air Force vs. Army Total (Over/Under): 41.5 points
  • TV Channel: CBS

The Air Force Falcons (1-6) visit Blaik Field at Michie Stadium to take on the Army Black Knights (7-0) on Nov. 2 in West Point, NY. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT.

Army is a betting favorite in Week 10, with the spread sitting at -22.5 (-110).

The Air Force vs. Army Over/Under is 41.5 total points.

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Air Force vs. Army Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Air Force+22.5 -11041.5 -110+1100
Army -22.5 -11041.5 -110-2500

Air Force vs Army Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Army will win this game with 95.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Air Force and Army, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Air Force vs Army Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Army will cover the spread with 53.9% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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  • Air Force has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+4.00 Units / 68% ROI)
  • Air Force has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.55 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Air Force has hit the Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Army has hit the Moneyline in their last 10 games (+16.60 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Army has hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 9 games (+14.00 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Army has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+8.40 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Army have covered the 1H Spread in 9 of their last 10 games (+7.90 Units / 70% ROI)
  • Army have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.80 Units / 56% ROI)

Air Force Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Air Force is 0-7 against the spread this college football season (-7.65 Units / -100% ROI).

  • Air Force is 0-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.2 Units / -100% ROI
  • Air Force is 3-4 when betting the Over for -1.4 Units / -18.18% ROI
  • Air Force is 4-3 when betting the Under for +0.7 Units / 9.09% ROI

Army Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Army is 6-1 against the spread this college football season (+4.9 Units / 63.23% ROI).

  • Army is 6-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +6 Units / 9.54% ROI
  • Army is 5-2 when betting the Over for +2.8 Units / 36.13% ROI
  • Army is 2-5 when betting the Under for -3.45 Units / -45.1% ROI

Air Force: Keys to the Game vs. Army

Air Force is winless (0-7) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .389

Air Force is winless (0-7) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .332

Air Force is winless (0-8) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .329

Air Force is 10-10 (.500) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-35th-worst in FBS; Average: .624

Army: Keys to the Game vs. Air Force

Army is undefeated (7-0) when rushing for more than 100 yards this season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .566

Army is undefeated (7-0) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– T-best in FBS; Average: .596

Army is undefeated (7-0) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .519

Army is 7-1 (.778) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– 5th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .468

Matchup Notes for Air Force vs. Army

Army’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 25.0% of 56 attempts this season — best among FBS offenses. Air Force’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 14.5% of attempts this season — 7th-best among FBS defenses.

Army’s QBs has thrown for 702 passing yards in 7 games (just 100.3 YPG) this season — worst among FBS teams. Air Force’s defense has allowed just 188.9 passing yards per game this season — 31st-best among FBS defenses.

Army’s offense has thrown for 702 passing yards in 7 games (just 100.3 YPG) this season — worst among FBS offenses. Air Force’s defense has allowed just 188.9 passing yards per game this season — 31st-best among FBS defenses.

Air Force’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 16.8% of 101 attempts this season — 5th-best among FBS offenses. Army’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.2% of attempts this season — T-18th-worst among FBS defenses.

Air Force has gained 704 yards on 42 receptions (16.8 YPR) this season — 3rd-best among FBS skill players. Army’s defense has allowed just 9.3 Yards Per Reception this season — T-2nd-best among FBS defenses.

Air Force’s TEs has 4 receptions in 7 games (just 0.6 per game) this season — 2nd-worst among FBS TEs. Army’s defense has allowed 21.9 receptions per game this season — T-14th-worst among FBS defenses.

Air Force Offensive Stats & Trends

Air Force Skill Players have averaged just 4.8 receptions per game (95/20) since the 2023 season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 18.9

Air Force Skill Players have averaged just 6.0 receptions per game (42/7) this season– 2nd-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 18.9

Air Force WRs have averaged 21.0 yards per reception (1,554 yards/74 catches) since the 2023 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 13.3

Air Force Skill Players have been targeted 10.0 times per game (199/20) since the 2023 season– lowest among FBS Teams; Average: 29.6

Air Force Skill Players have averaged 16.8 yards per reception (704 yards/42 catches) this season– 3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.1

Army Offensive Stats & Trends

Army have completed passes for 20+ yards on 14 of their 56 total passing attempts (25%) this season– best among FBS Offenses; Average: 10%

Army WRs have averaged 23.2 yards per reception (371 yards/16 catches) this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 13.4

Army Skill Players have averaged 20.6 yards per reception (702 yards/34 catches) this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.1

Army WRs have been targeted 3.7 times per game (26/7) this season– 2nd-lowest among FBS Teams; Average: 20.6

Army WRs have been targeted 7.5 times per game (143/19) since the 2023 season– 2nd-lowest among FBS Teams; Average: 20.8

Air Force Falcons Defensive Stats & Trends

Air Force has intercepted one of 165 attempts this season– worst in FBS; Average: 35.6

Air Force has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 12 of 68 attempts (18%) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%

Air Force has averaged a sack every 33.0 pass attempts (165 Pass Attempts/5 Sacks) this season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 15.5

Air Force has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 12 of 68 attempts (18%) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 9%

Air Force has intercepted one of 165 attempts this season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 39.2

Army Black Knights Defensive Stats & Trends

Army has allowed 3 rushing TDs on 171 carries (57 Carries Per TD) this season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 20.6

Army has allowed 3 rushing TDs on 28 carries (9.3 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.2

Army has allowed just 9.3 yards per completion (1,416 yards/153 completions) this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.1

Army has allowed 24.4 carries per game (171 carries / 7 games) this season– lowest among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 36.9

Army’s opponents has attempted two-point conversions on 25% of PATs this season– highest among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%


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