Alabama vs. LSU: Prediction, Pick, Odds Preview

It might not be an SEC West showdown anymore, but it’s still a conference classic. 

Alabama travels to LSU this weekend for another high-stakes game with major postseason implications. 

The winner is a likely playoff pick that could have an outside shot at the SEC title. The loser could be on the outside looking in. 

Alabama vs. LSU Odds

• Point Spread: Alabama -3
• Moneyline: Alabama -145  |  LSU +120
• Over/Under: 58.5

Alabama vs. LSU Preview

The College GameDay schedule picked a good one. LSU and Alabama are both coming off a bye, and both teams have shown some real offensive capability. Both teams have good coaches. To some extent, picking a side is a little bit of a Rorschach test.

The case for Alabama is that Jalen Milroe is the more experienced quarterback, while Ryan Williams will probably be the best player on the field for either offense. Alabama ranks second in team EPA/play. 

But post-Nick Saban Alabama has also looked like a normal college football team – that is to say, they’ve looked pretty mortal on the road. 

Alabama is 1-2 in true road games this year, and the one win was in September against a Wisconsin team that hadn’t really developed an offensive identity yet. The losses were tight games against Vanderbilt and Tennessee.

It won’t get any easier in Baton Rouge this week – one of the most notoriously difficult home-field advantages in college football. 

Alabama football odds opened the week at -2.5 and were quickly bet to -3 by the end of Monday. Early ticket splits show a majority of marketwide action on the Crimson Tide.

From a handicapping perspective I just don’t know why I should give advantage with Alabama in this game. LSU hasn’t played as difficult a schedule as Alabama, and the Week 1 result against USC suggests a lower floor for the Tigers. 

Still, in a game that should be heavily competitive, with LSU now catching the full +3, it’s hard not to lean toward the home dog. 

Alabama vs. LSU Prediction

I am predicting an LSU +3 cover on Saturday night in Baton Rouge. 

I can’t ignore the fact that Alabama has looked pretty beatable this year outside of one good half against Georgia. 

For bettors looking to parlay this game with multiple bets, consider mixing in a bet on the over. This game has produced at least 60 points of offense in four of the last five years, and both quarterbacks have been relevant in the Heisman Trophy odds market this season. 

Alabama vs. LSU Pick: LSU +3