- Iowa St. is a -21.5 point favorite vs. Arkansas St
- Arkansas State vs. Iowa State Total(Over/Under): 51.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN+
The Arkansas State Red Wolves (2-1) visit Jack Trice Stadium to take on the Iowa State Cyclones (2-0) on Sep. 21 in Ames, IA. Kickoff is scheduled for 2:00pm EDT.
Iowa St. is a betting favorite in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -21.5 (-110).
The Arkansas State vs. Iowa State Over/Under is 51.5 total points.
Bet now on Iowa St. vs Arkansas St & all NCAAF games with BetMGM
Arkansas State vs. Iowa State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Arkansas State | +21.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +1000 |
| Iowa State | -21.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -2000 |
Arkansas State vs Iowa State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Iowa State will win this game with 95.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Arkansas St and Iowa St., key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Arkansas State vs Iowa State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Arkansas State will cover the spread with 72.5% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
Bet now on Iowa St. vs Arkansas St and all games with BetMGM
Arkansas State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Arkansas State has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 13 games (+3.55 Units / 18% ROI)
- Arkansas State has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 7 away games (+0.70 Units / 9% ROI)
- Arkansas State have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 7 away games (+0.65 Units / 8% ROI)
- Arkansas State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 7 away games (+0.45 Units / 5% ROI)
- Arkansas State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 12 games (+0.35 Units / 3% ROI)
Iowa State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Iowa State has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+8.20 Units / 48% ROI)
- Iowa State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.05 Units / 57% ROI)
- Iowa State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in their last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 79% ROI)
- Iowa State has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
- Iowa State have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Arkansas State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Arkansas State Player Prop Bets Today
- Corey Rucker has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Courtney Jackson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Jaylen Raynor has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Iowa State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Iowa State Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Rocco Becht has hit the TD Passes Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+4.55 Units / 82% ROI)
- Rocco Becht has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 86% ROI)
- Jaylin Noel has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 79% ROI)
- Jayden Higgins has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.80 Units / 47% ROI)
- Abu Sama III has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Arkansas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Arkansas St is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).
- Arkansas State is 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 11.3% ROI
- Arkansas State is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.15 Units / -35.94% ROI
- Arkansas State is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.85 Units / 25% ROI
Iowa State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Iowa St. is 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.1 Units / -4.76% ROI).
- Iowa State is 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.2 Units / 120% ROI
- Iowa State is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Iowa State is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
Arkansas State: Keys to the Game vs. Iowa State
Arkansas State is winless (0-6) when losing at least one fumble since the 2022 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .393
Arkansas State is undefeated (6-0) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-32nd-best in FBS; Average: .613
Arkansas State is 6-2 (.600) when making 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– T-10th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .430
Arkansas State is 6-3 (.600) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-36th-best in FBS; Average: .495
Iowa State: Keys to the Game vs. Arkansas State
Iowa State is 5-1 (.833) when making 3 or more explosive runs in a game since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .408
Iowa State is 5-1 (.714) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .422
Iowa State is 5-1 (.714) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2023 season– T-24th-best in FBS; Average: .526
Iowa State is undefeated (6-0) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .467
Matchup Notes for Arkansas State vs. Iowa State
Iowa State’s TEs has 5 receptions in 2 games (just 2.5 per game) this season — 4th-worst among Big 12 TEs. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed just 15.0 receptions per game this season — T-29th-best among FBS defenses.
Iowa State’s TEs has 62 receptions in 15 games (4.1 per game) since the 2023 season — 5th-best among Big 12 TEs. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 21.3 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 16th-worst among FBS defenses.
Iowa State has 43 receptions in 2 games (21.5 per game) this season — 5th-best among Big 12 skill players. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed just 15.0 receptions per game this season — T-29th-best among FBS defenses.
Arkansas State has gained 3,701 yards on 278 receptions (13.3 YPR) since the 2023 season — T-23rd-best among FBS skill players. Iowa State’s defense has allowed just 11.4 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — 4th-best among Big 12 defenses.
Arkansas State’s RBs has averaged just 6.7 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-29th-worst among FBS RBs. Iowa State’s defense has allowed just 6.5 RAC to RBs since the 2023 season — T-28th-best among FBS defenses.
Arkansas State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 12.4% of 493 attempts since the 2023 season — 26th-best among FBS offenses. Iowa State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 9.1% of attempts since the 2023 season — T-worst among Big 12 defenses.
Arkansas State Offensive Stats & Trends
Arkansas State has gained 3,701 yards on 278 receptions (13.3 YPR) since the 2023 season — T-23rd-best among FBS skill players. Iowa State’s defense has allowed just 11.4 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — 4th-best among Big 12 defenses.
Arkansas State’s RBs has averaged just 6.7 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-29th-worst among FBS RBs. Iowa State’s defense has allowed just 6.5 RAC to RBs since the 2023 season — T-28th-best among FBS defenses.
Arkansas State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 12.4% of 493 attempts since the 2023 season — 26th-best among FBS offenses. Iowa State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 9.1% of attempts since the 2023 season — T-worst among Big 12 defenses.
Arkansas State’s RBs has averaged just 6.7 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-29th-worst among FBS RBs. Iowa State’s defense has allowed just 11.4 RAC since the 2023 season — 5th-best among Big 12 defenses.
Arkansas State has been targeted 120 times this season — 5th-most among FBS skill players. Iowa State’s defense has allowed 220 receiving yards this season — fewest among Big 12 defenses.
Iowa State Offensive Stats & Trends
Iowa State WRs have averaged 26.7 yards per reception (267 yards/10 catches) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– best among Big 12 Teams; Average: 12.2
Iowa State’s TEs has 5 receptions in 2 games (just 2.5 per game) this season — 4th-worst among Big 12 TEs. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed just 15.0 receptions per game this season — T-29th-best among FBS defenses.
Iowa State’s TEs has 62 receptions in 15 games (4.1 per game) since the 2023 season — 5th-best among Big 12 TEs. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 21.3 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 16th-worst among FBS defenses.
Iowa State WRs have averaged 20.5 yards per target (267 yards/13 targets) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– best among Big 12 Teams; Average: 8.4
Iowa State RBs have averaged 3.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (365 yards / 100 touches) in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– 5th-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.4
Arkansas State Red Wolves Defensive Stats & Trends
Arkansas State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 28% (5 completions/18 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 62%
Arkansas State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 39% (11 completions/28 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2022 season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 62%
Arkansas State has tackled opponents for a loss on just 11 of 108 rushing attempts (10% TFL%) this season– T-11th-worst in FBS; Average: 16%.
Arkansas State has allowed 234.7 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs this season– T-4th-worst in FBS; Average: 131.7
Arkansas State allowed a Completion Pct of 77% (44 completions/57 attempts) on 3rd and long in the 2023 season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 54%
Iowa State Cyclones Defensive Stats & Trends
Iowa State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 41% (24 completions/59 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go since the 2023 season– best in the Big 12; Average: 60%
Iowa State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 40% (33 completions/83 attempts) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– best in the Big 12; Average: 55%
Iowa State has allowed opponents to catch just 33 of 83 passes (40% Reception Pct) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– best in the Big 12; Average: 56%
Iowa State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 32% (14 completions/44 attempts) on third and 10+ yards to go since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 55%
Iowa State opponents has averaged 7.9 Passing Attempts per TD (63 Pass Attempts/8 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– best in the Big 12; Average: 4.4
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