Ball State vs Ohio Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 14

BetMGM Betting Nov 26, 2024, 2:10 PM

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Ohio head coach Tim Albin yells from the sideline during the first half of the Mid-American Conference championship NCAA college football game against Toledo, Saturday, Dec. 3, 2022, in Detroit. (AP Photo/Carlos Osorio)

(AP Photo/Carlos Osorio)

Ohio is a -15.5 point favorite vs. Ball State
Ball State vs. Ohio Total (Over/Under): 52.5 points
TV Channel: CBSSN

The Ball State Cardinals (3-8) visit Peden Stadium to take on the Ohio Bobcats (8-3) on Nov. 29 in Athens, OH. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EST.

Ohio is a betting favorite in Week 14, with the spread sitting at -15.5 (-105).

The Ball State vs. Ohio Over/Under is 52.5 total points.

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Ball State vs. Ohio Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Ball State	+15.5 -115	52.5 -110	+500
Ohio	-15.5 -105	52.5 -110	-700

Ball State vs Ohio Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Ohio will win this game with 84.9% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Ball State and Ohio, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Ball State vs Ohio Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Ohio will cover the spread with 67.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Ball State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Ball State has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.80 Units / 48% ROI)
Ball State have covered the 1H Spread in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.85 Units / 63% ROI)
Ball State have covered the 1Q Spread in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.90 Units / 57% ROI)
Ball State have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
Ball State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.40 Units / 23% ROI)

Ohio Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Ohio has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in their last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Ohio has hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 5 games at home (+5.05 Units / 50% ROI)
Ohio has hit the Moneyline in their last 5 games at home (+5.05 Units / 44% ROI)
Ohio have covered the 1Q Spread in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.55 Units / 33% ROI)
Ohio have covered the Spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Ball State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Ball State Player Prop Bets Today

Justin Bowick has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Braedon Sloan has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Braedon Sloan has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Tanner Koziol has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Ohio players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Ohio Player Prop Best Bets Today

Chase Hendricks has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Coleman Owen has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Parker Navarro has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Rodney Harris II has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Anthony Tyus III has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Ball State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Ball State is 7-4 against the spread this college football season (+2.6 Units / 21.49% ROI).

Ball State is 3-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.9 Units / -8.18% ROI
Ball State is 8-2 when betting the Over for +5.8 Units / 47.93% ROI
Ball State is 2-8 when betting the Under for -6.8 Units / -56.2% ROI

Ohio Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Ohio is 7-4 against the spread this college football season (+2.6 Units / 21.4% ROI).

Ohio is 7-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +4 Units / 14.23% ROI
Ohio is 5-6 when betting the Over for -1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI
Ohio is 6-5 when betting the Under for +0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI

Ball State: Keys to the Game vs. Ohio

Ball State is 2-12 (.143) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes since the 2023 season– T-6th-worst in FBS; Average: .442

Ball State is 1-7 (.125) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season– 9th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .402

Ball State is 3-12 (.200) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– T-17th-worst in FBS; Average: .416

Ball State is 3-11 (.214) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– 15th-worst in FBS; Average: .442

Ohio: Keys to the Game vs. Ball State

Ohio is 10-1 (.909) when the opposing team commits 60 yards or more in penalties. since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .489

Ohio is 11-2 (.846) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .471

Ohio is 12-1 (.923) when not throwing an interception since the 2023 season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .662

Ohio is 17-3 (.850) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .582

Matchup Notes for Ball State vs. Ohio

Ohio’s QBs has thrown for 2,000 passing yards in 11 games (just 181.8 YPG) this season — 19th-worst among FBS teams. Ball State’s defense has allowed 286.4 passing yards per game this season — 3rd-worst among FBS defenses.

Ohio’s offense has thrown for 4,647 passing yards in 24 games (just 193.6 YPG) since the 2023 season — 27th-worst among FBS offenses. Ball State’s defense has allowed 243.5 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 26th-worst among FBS defenses.

Ohio’s offense has thrown for 2,000 passing yards in 11 games (just 181.8 YPG) this season — 19th-worst among FBS offenses. Ball State’s defense has allowed 286.4 passing yards per game this season — 3rd-worst among FBS defenses.

Ball State’s TEs has 91 receptions in 11 games (8.3 per game) this season — 2nd-best among FBS TEs. Ohio’s defense has allowed just 2.5 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-19th-best among FBS defenses.

Ball State has gained 2,619 yards on 244 receptions (just 10.7 YPR) this season — T-14th-worst among FBS skill players. Ohio’s defense has allowed just 10.7 Yards Per Reception this season — T-21st-best among FBS defenses.

Ball State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 6.9% of 698 attempts since the 2023 season — 4th-worst among FBS offenses. Ohio’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.2% of attempts since the 2023 season — 5th-best among FBS defenses.

Ball State Offensive Stats & Trends

Ball State TEs have been targeted 11.5 times per game (126/11) this season– 2nd-highest among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0

Ball State TEs have averaged 8.3 receptions per game (91/11) this season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 3.3

Ball State TEs have been targeted 6.7 times per game (74/11) in the 1st half this season– T-highest among FBS Teams; Average: 2.8

Ohio Offensive Stats & Trends

Ohio WRs have no touchdowns on 30 receptions in close and late situations since the 2023 season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 10.7

Ohio WRs have averaged a touchdown every 18.4 receptions (295 Rec/16 TDs) since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.0

Ball State Cardinals Defensive Stats & Trends

Ball State has allowed 33 TD passes this season– T-most in FBS

Ball State has allowed 11 TDs in close and late situations this season– most in FBS

Ball State has allowed 11 TDs in close and late situations this season– most among Non-Power Conference Teams

Ball State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 41% (41 completions/100 attempts) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 55%

Ball State has no interceptions and 26 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 9.7

Ohio Bobcats Defensive Stats & Trends

Ohio has tackled opponents for a loss on 160 of 710 rushing attempts (23% TFL%) since the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 15%.

Ohio tackled opponents for a loss on 93 of 364 rushing attempts (26% TFL%) in the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 16%.

Ohio has allowed 7 rushing TDs on 46 carries (6.6 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone this season– T-3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.3

Ohio tackled opponents for a loss on 93 of 364 rushing attempts (26% TFL%) in the 2023 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 16%.

Ohio has allowed 44.2 yards from scrimmage per game in the 4th quarter this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 92.3