Boise St vs Oregon Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 2

BetMGM Betting Sep 06, 2024, 5:30 PM

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FILE - Oregon coach Dan Lanning reacts to a play against BYU during the first half of an NCAA college football game Sept. 17, 2022, in Eugene, Ore. Oregon and head coach Dan Lanning have agreed to a contract extension that will extend his deal through the 2028 season. The Oregon Board of Trustees unanimously approved the terms of the contract Thursday, July 27, 2023. Lanning’s new deal will pay him a total of $45 million in base salary over six years. (AP Photo/Andy Nelson, File)

(AP Photo/Andy Nelson)

Oregon is a -19.5 point favorite vs. Boise St
Boise State vs. Oregon Total(Over/Under): 61.5 points
TV Channel: PEAC

The Boise State Broncos (1-0) visit Autzen Stadium to take on the Oregon Ducks (1-0) on Sep. 7 in Eugene, OR. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:00pm EDT.

Oregon is a betting favorite in Week 2, with the spread sitting at -19.5 (-105).

The Boise State vs. Oregon Over/Under is 61.5 total points.

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Boise State vs. Oregon Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Boise State	+19.5 -115	61.5 -110	+675
Oregon	-19.5 -105	61.5 -110	-1100

Boise State vs Oregon Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Oregon will win this game with 90.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Boise State vs Oregon Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Oregon will cover the spread with 76.6% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Boise St and Oregon and key player performances this season.

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Boise State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Oregon Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Boise State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Boise State Player Prop Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Oregon players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Oregon Player Prop Best Bets Today

Boise State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Boise St is 0-1 against the spread this college football season (-1.1 Units / -100% ROI).

Boise State is 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 19.8% ROI
Boise State is 1-0 when betting the Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
Boise State is 0-1 when betting the Under for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI

Oregon Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Oregon is 0-1 against the spread this college football season (-1.1 Units / -100% ROI).

Oregon is 0-1 when betting the Over for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
Oregon is 1-0 when betting the Under for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI

Boise State: Keys to the Game vs. Oregon

Boise State is winless (0-2) when making less than 3 explosive runs in a game since the 2022 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .221

Boise State was 4-1 (.800) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times in the 2023 season– T-5th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .415

Boise State is 9-2 (.692) when not throwing an interception since the 2022 season– 10th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .496

Boise State is 16-3 (.696) when making 7 or more explosive plays since the 2022 season– T-6th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .456

Oregon: Keys to the Game vs. Boise State

Oregon is 8-2 (.800) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2022 season– T-5th-best in FBS; Average: .410

Oregon is 13-2 (.867) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2022 season– 8th-best in FBS; Average: .566

Oregon is 11-2 (.846) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2022 season– 7th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .557

Oregon is 7-1 (.875) when allowing less than 200 passing yards since the 2022 season– T-7th-best in FBS; Average: .567

Matchup Notes for Boise State vs. Oregon

Oregon’s QBs threw for 4,626 passing yards in 13 games (355.8 YPG) last season — best among FBS teams. Boise State’s defense allowed 263.1 passing yards per game last season — 12th-worst among FBS defenses.

Oregon’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on 12.0% of 484 attempts last season — 30th-best among FBS offenses. Boise State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.1% of attempts last season — 21st-best among FBS defenses.

Oregon’s offense threw for 4,626 passing yards in 13 games (355.8 YPG) last season — best among FBS offenses. Boise State’s defense allowed 263.1 passing yards per game last season — 12th-worst among FBS defenses.

Boise State’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on 13.6% of 346 attempts last season — T-18th-best among FBS offenses. Oregon’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 8.2% of attempts last season — T-22nd-worst among FBS defenses.

Boise State gained 2,861 yards on 200 receptions (14.3 YPR) last season — 11th-best among FBS skill players. Oregon’s defense allowed just 10.3 Yards Per Reception last season — T-5th-best among FBS defenses.

Boise State’s RBs averaged 11.4 yards after the catch last season — 8th-best among FBS RBs. Oregon’s defense allowed just 5.2 RAC to RBs last season — 9th-best among FBS defenses.

Boise State Offensive Stats & Trends

Boise State RBs have caught 4 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter since the 2022 season– T-most among FBS Teams

Boise State’s RBs averaged 11.4 yards after the catch last season — 8th-best among FBS RBs. Oregon’s defense allowed just 5.2 RAC to RBs last season — 9th-best among FBS defenses.

Boise State RBs had 551 receiving yards on 1st down in the 2023 season– most among FBS Teams

Oregon Offensive Stats & Trends

Oregon WRs averaged 18.8 yards per reception (413 yards/22 catches) on 3rd and long in the 2023 season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 13.2

Oregon Skill Players had 59 receptions in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– most among FBS Teams

Oregon TEs have been targeted 53 times in the Red Zone since the 2022 season– most among Power Conference Teams

Oregon Skill Players had 59 receptions in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– most among Power Conference Teams

Oregon Skill Players caught 49 touchdown passes in the 2023 season– most among Power Conference Teams

Boise State Broncos Defensive Stats & Trends

Boise State opponents has averaged 6.2 Passing Attempts per TD (81 Pass Attempts/13 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2022 season– T-4th-best in FBS; Average: 3.9

Boise State opponents has averaged 6.2 Passing Attempts per TD (81 Pass Attempts/13 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2022 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.8

Boise State allowed first downs on 37% of rush attempts on 3rd and long in the 2023 season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 15%

Boise State sacked opposing QBs on 8% of pass attempts (36/441) in the 2023 season– T-34th-best in FBS; Average: 7%

Boise State allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 7 of 19 carries (37%) on 3rd and long in the 2023 season– 4th-worst in FBS; Average: 17%

Oregon Ducks Defensive Stats & Trends

Oregon has tackled opponents for a loss on 13 of 47 rushing attempts (28% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2022 season– 2nd-best in the Big Ten; Average: 15%.

Oregon tackled opponents for a loss on 12 of 44 rushing attempts (27% TFL%) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 15%.

Oregon tackled opponents for a loss on 12 of 44 rushing attempts (27% TFL%) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 15%.

Oregon tackled opponents for a loss on 12 of 44 rushing attempts (27% TFL%) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– 2nd-best in the Big Ten; Average: 15%.

Oregon has tackled opponents for a loss on 8 of 37 rushing attempts (22% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2022 season– 2nd-best in the Big Ten; Average: 11%.