Houston vs Arizona Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 12

BetMGM Betting Nov 13, 2024, 4:11 PM

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Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita looks for a receiver during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Washington State, Saturday, Oct. 14, 2023, in Pullman, Wash. (AP Photo/Young Kwak)

(AP Photo/Young Kwak)

Arizona is a -1.5 point favorite vs. Houston
Houston vs. Arizona Total (Over/Under): 45.5 points
TV Channel: FS1

The Houston Cougars (4-5) visit Arizona Stadium to take on the Arizona Wildcats (3-6) on Nov. 15 in Tucson, AZ. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:15pm EST.

Arizona is a betting favorite in Week 12, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-105).

The Houston vs. Arizona Over/Under is 45.5 total points.

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Houston vs. Arizona Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Houston	+1.5 -115	45.5 -110	-105
Arizona	-1.5 -105	45.5 -110	-115

Houston vs Arizona Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Arizona will win this game with 57.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Houston and Arizona, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Houston vs Arizona Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Arizona will cover the spread with 60.3% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Houston Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Houston has hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.80 Units / 56% ROI)
Houston have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.75 Units / 40% ROI)
Houston has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 11 games (+4.40 Units / 35% ROI)
Houston has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 3 of their last 4 away games (+1.90 Units / 43% ROI)
Houston have covered the Spread in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)

Arizona Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Arizona has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+2.20 Units / 20% ROI)
Arizona has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 3 of their last 4 games at home (+2.00 Units / 40% ROI)
Arizona has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 12% ROI)
Arizona has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
Arizona have covered the 1Q Spread in 5 of their last 10 games (+0.75 Units / 7% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Houston players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Houston Player Prop Bets Today

Stephon Johnson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Re’Shaun Sanford II has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Donovan Smith has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 77% ROI)
Donovan Smith has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 67% ROI)
Donovan Smith has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 54% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Arizona players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Arizona Player Prop Best Bets Today

Noah Fifita has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 51% ROI)
Tetairoa McMillan has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)
Tetairoa McMillan has hit the Receptions Over in his last game (+1.10 Units / 110% ROI)
Montana Lemonious-Craig has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Noah Fifita has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Houston Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Houston is 5-4 against the spread this college football season (+0.65 Units / 6.63% ROI).

Houston is 4-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.4 Units / 60.09% ROI
Houston is 1-8 when betting the Over for -7.8 Units / -78.79% ROI
Houston is 8-1 when betting the Under for +6.9 Units / 69.7% ROI

Arizona Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Arizona is 1-8 against the spread this college football season (-7.9 Units / -78.61% ROI).

Arizona is 2-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.1 Units / -5.69% ROI
Arizona is 4-5 when betting the Over for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI
Arizona is 5-4 when betting the Under for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI

Houston: Keys to the Game vs. Arizona

Houston is winless (0-8) when intercepting no passes since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .395

Houston is winless (0-8) when intercepting no passes since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .353

Houston is 2-8 (.200) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– T-4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .450

Houston is 5-10 (.333) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– 7th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .590

Arizona: Keys to the Game vs. Houston

Arizona is 3-6 (.333) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards this season– T-33rd-worst in FBS; Average: .489

Arizona is 9-1 (.818) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season– T-31st-best in FBS; Average: .670

Arizona is winless (0-6) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .470

Arizona is 6-3 (.600) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-35th-best in FBS; Average: .505

Matchup Notes for Houston vs. Arizona

Arizona’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 8.6% of 324 attempts this season — T-33rd-worst among FBS offenses. Houston’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.9% of attempts this season — 4th-best among Big 12 defenses.

Arizona’s TEs has 31 receptions in 9 games (3.4 per game) this season — 5th-best among Big 12 TEs. Houston’s defense has allowed just 17.3 receptions per game this season — 4th-best among Big 12 defenses.

Houston’s TEs has 20 receptions in 9 games (just 2.2 per game) this season — 3rd-worst among Big 12 TEs. Arizona’s defense has allowed 18.9 receptions per game this season — 5th-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Houston has 135 receptions in 9 games (just 15.0 per game) this season — T-24th-worst among FBS skill players. Arizona’s defense has allowed 18.9 receptions per game this season — 5th-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Houston has 135 receptions in 9 games (just 15.0 per game) this season — T-worst among Big 12 skill players. Arizona’s defense has allowed 18.9 receptions per game this season — 5th-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Houston Offensive Stats & Trends

Houston Skill Players have averaged just 9.9 yards per reception (1,330 yards/135 catches) this season– worst among Big 12 Teams; Average: 12.4

Houston TEs have averaged just 6.7 yards per reception (101 yards/15 catches) on 1st down since the 2023 season– worst among Big 12 Teams; Average: 11.4

Houston WRs have averaged just 10.7 yards per reception (956 yards/89 catches) this season– worst among Big 12 Teams; Average: 13.6

Houston RBs have rushed for 2 TDs on 183 carries (91.5 Carries Per TD) this season– 4th-worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 21.1

Houston Skill Players have averaged just 147.8 receiving yards per game (1,330/9) this season– worst among Big 12 Teams; Average: 235.5

Arizona Offensive Stats & Trends

Arizona WRs have averaged 23.2 yards per reception (440 yards/19 catches) on 3rd and long this season– best among Big 12 Teams; Average: 15.0

Arizona TEs have been targeted 5.0 times per game (35/7) in the 2nd half this season– highest among Big 12 Teams; Average: 2.7

Houston Cougars Defensive Stats & Trends

Houston has allowed first downs on 50% of pass attempts in the Red Zone this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 23%

Houston has allowed first downs on 50% of pass attempts in the Red Zone this season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 22%

Houston has allowed first downs on 50% of pass attempts in the Red Zone this season– worst in FBS; Average: 23%

Houston has allowed a Completion Pct of just 27% (3 completions/11 attempts) on 3rd and short this season– 4th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 60%

Houston has allowed first downs on 40% of pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 22%

Arizona Wildcats Defensive Stats & Trends

Arizona has allowed a Completion Pct of 82% (27 completions/33 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go this season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 59%

Arizona has allowed a Completion Pct of 82% (27 completions/33 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 61%

Arizona has tackled opponents for a loss on just 5 of 63 rushing attempts (8% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– 5th-worst in the Big 12; Average: 10%.

Arizona has allowed 24 TDs in the Red Zone this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 2.0

Arizona has allowed first downs on 11% of rush attempts in close and late situations this season– best in the Big 12; Average: 22%